Anwar’s First Year: Performative and Underperforming

Editor’s Note: This article is the 6th most viewed commentary on Fulcrum in 2023. It was first published on 27 November 2023.

The problem with high expectations is that they are seldom fulfilled. In the case of Anwar Ibrahim, these expectations were long in the running. After all, Anwar spent decades as an understudy, in a prison cell and on the opposition benches. With the 2022 general elections came the dramatic denouement that offered an opportunity to “correct” the many years of a promise denied. When Anwar took oath as Malaysia’s tenth prime minister a year ago, the national anticipation of seeing him finally fulfilling a lifetime’s ambition brought with it high hopes.

And Anwar revelled in the moment. Easily the most gifted politician of his generation and the foremost orator of any, he set a political course that sought a rupture with legacies of the past, introducing a new era of integrity, compassion and innovation. He summoned all his talent to perform at the centre stage of Malaysian politics, at times rendering his entire Cabinet anonymous and irrelevant.

For a while, the solo performance looked promising. Despite his coalition not winning a majority at the general election, Anwar was able to piece together an unlikely “Unity Government” with former foes. More importantly, he has been able to sustain it despite continuous attempts by the opposition to topple him. The rare political stability Malaysia now seems to enjoy after almost five years of tumultuous changes in government is Anwar’s biggest achievement to date.

In response to criticisms that there was no clear economic strategy, Anwar launched the Madani Economic Framework. This was well-received and catalysed the development of sectoral economic roadmaps that excited investors. Most recently, Anwar’s performative one-man routine was elevated globally with such a strident defence of Palestine that his safety was supposedly threatened.

But a year into his premiership, there are signs that people are starting to tire of the virtuoso. Notwithstanding greater clarity in economic management through various long-term plans, Malaysians decry a challenging cost-of-living crunch. While headline inflation continues to moderate, the ringgit is the worst-performing currency in Asia this year after the Japanese yen. The stock market remains anaemic, and GDP growth has moderated due to external factors and the slow pace of internal reforms. New initiatives to boost the income of the poor target only a small sample of Malaysians — this barely moves the needle on a national scale. Citing the economy as their number one concern, Malaysians gave their leader a painful score in a tracking poll recently, dragging Anwar back to pedestrian approval numbers.

(Anwar) has alienated his support base and lost much of the reformist sheen that defined his rise to power. Although political stability has been his biggest achievement in the last year, he remains overly cautious and has used this at times as an excuse for backpedalling on promised reforms.

To be fair to Anwar, much of his predicament is inherited and imposed. Tight fiscal conditions prevent him from rolling out initiatives to ease the financial woes faced by Malaysians. This is due to past profligacy and necessary spending measures during the pandemic. China’s slowdown has affected manufacturing exports, one of Malaysia’s crucial economic engines. The interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve have been aggressive, thus creating a widening spread with rates in Malaysia. Bank Negara Malaysia has rightly pursued a more measured tightening of monetary policy. However, this has contributed to downward pressure on the ringgit, which further erodes the people’s purchasing power.

So, while Anwar can fairly claim that his present fortunes, and by extension those of the nation, are due to bad timing and external drivers, this excuse is increasingly wearing thin for various reasons.

To begin with, deflated expectations inevitably come back to hurt populists. In opposition, Anwar and his party promised a slew of goodies, from lower petrol prices to cancelling student loans. These are measures which they now realise cannot be fulfilled.

The maestro has also lost his orchestra. Recently, the Crown Prince of Johor issued a rare rebuke of Anwar, calling on the premier and his team to do more for the betterment of the people. This reminded Anwar that his Cabinet has largely been lacklustre. Initially, the prime minister was given a wide berth to accommodate nominees from across his disparate partners in the Unity Government. One year of underperformance, however, has forced him to admit he needs to shuffle the deck.

Finally, the problem with Anwar might be Anwar himself. So engrossed has he been in his performative premiership that he has forgotten why at least half the country waited half a lifetime for his ascension. In the six state elections in August, Anwar was stung by the inroads made by the opposition coalition dominated by Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS). Subsequently, Anwar has spent much of his capital pandering to more conservative sentiments.

As a result, he has alienated his support base and lost much of the reformist sheen that defined his rise to power. Although political stability has been his biggest achievement in the last year, he remains overly cautious and has used this at times as an excuse for backpedalling on promised reforms. In September, the High Court discharged Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, his deputy prime minister, of 47 corruption charges. Zahid is the leader of the United Malays National Organisation, which is a key party in the Unity Government. A massive scandal involving undelivered warships has been swept under the carpet. Despite Anwar’s own demands while in opposition, the prime minister has not given equal constituency funding to Members of Parliament in the opposition. And his coalition’s key promise of separating the roles of prime minister and finance minister to ensure accountability remains unfulfilled as Anwar continues to hold both positions.

Yet, Anwar has time. Political stability means he has four clear years until the next general election. He must quickly arrest the drift and course correct by dropping deadwood in Cabinet, appointing a technically competent second minister of finance to drive tough reforms, focusing on the minutiae of implementation and winning the support of the majority Malay community without trying to be more Islamic than PAS. In short, Malaysia needs less performative leadership, more substantive performance. If he fails, not only will the applause be muted, but there will be no encore.