Anwar’s Diplomatic Dilemma

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim is sitting pretty on a string of coups, with his successful brokering of a Thai-Cambodian ceasefire and Washington’s announcement of lower tariffs to be imposed on Malaysia. But he faces a dilemma with regard to Donald Trump’s nomination of a pro-Israel envoy to Kuala Lumpur.

Anwar’s victories come in the wake of multiple challenges halfway through the current parliamentary term. Politically, he has had to deal with the fallout from his own party’s leadership election which saw his daughter, Nurul Izzah, winning the deputy presidency. This has led to charges of nepotism and potentially a split in his party. While the topline numbers remain strong despite global uncertainty, Malaysians appear less sanguine about the economy. A recent survey showed 73 per cent of Malaysians chose economic concerns as the biggest problem facing the country. On 26 July, Anwar faced the biggest public protest since assuming the premiership. Almost twenty thousand largely opposition supporters gathered in Kuala Lumpur to demand his resignation, citing rising living costs and the lack of reform.

With around two and a half years left before the general elections are due, Anwar cannot afford to allow his government to drift and lose momentum. So, it is with some relief that in the last two weeks, he has been able to boast some victories on the international front. The first was serendipitous and opportunistic. As conflict erupted on the Thai-Cambodian border, Anwar seized on the opportunity of Malaysia holding the ASEAN chair to mediate between the two countries. He convinced both parties to attend talks in Malaysia and deftly included delegations from the US and China. He demonstrated his diplomatic nous in balancing superpower rivalry in the region and secured a ceasefire within hours. While others rushed to take credit for the end to the conflict, this was a clear diplomatic win for Malaysia and for Anwar personally.

This was followed quickly by news that the US had agreed to reduce the 25 per cent reciprocal tariff it had initially announced for Malaysia to 19 per cent. The government framed this as a success. This was further reinforced by a phone call between Anwar and US President Donald Trump, in which the latter acknowledged Malaysia’s role in resolving the Thai-Cambodian dispute, confirmed the reduction in Malaysia’s export tariff and indicated his willingness to attend the ASEAN summit in Malaysia in October. There are ongoing debates about how much Malaysia had to concede in order to secure the tariff reduction and whether it was worth it, but to Anwar and his government, the reduction is victory enough.

What remains to be seen is whether or not these wins will yield any political dividends for Anwar. The success of brokering a ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia, whilst bolstering Anwar’s regional standing, may have little effect on local sentiment. And while the tariff reduction has been sold as an achievement, Malaysians are still trying to understand the impact of the concessions.

What is of greater concern is an impending diplomatic appointment to Malaysia. In July, Nick Adams, an influencer with no administrative or diplomatic experience, was nominated by Trump as the US ambassador to Malaysia. Adams, a staunch Trump supporter, is notorious for his misogynistic and anti-Islamic views. In particular, he has gone on record for his staunch support for Israel by publicly stating, “If you don’t stand with Israel you stand with terrorism.”

Accepting Adams could be seen as a capitulation to the pro-Zionist lobby in the US. It might also present Anwar’s government with an awkward dilemma, particularly if Adams continues with his public advocacy for Israel as US ambassador to Malaysia.

While Adams’ nomination is subject to Senate confirmation which has not yet been secured, this poses a political problem for Anwar that can potentially unravel his recent successes and any momentum he hopes to create from it.

Should the US Congress approve Adams’ nomination, the ball will fall in Malaysia’s court. Under the Vienna Convention which provides an international legal framework for diplomatic relations between countries, a host nation has the right to withhold its acceptance of a nominated ambassador, effectively rejecting the nominee.

Arguably, this issue will have more political resonance in Muslim-majority Malaysia than Anwar’s previous coups. The Thai-Cambodia ceasefire has little impact on the lives of Malaysians and the US tariff reduction is not well understood by the general public.

Long before the present famine in Gaza which has prompted France, Canada and the United Kingdom to announce their impending recognition of a Palestinian state, Malaysia has been at the forefront of supporting the cause. Not only has its foreign policy consistently prioritised the liberation of Palestine, but Malaysians in general, especially the Muslim majority, have not just campaigned performatively but also used their power as consumers to punish businesses with purported links to Israel.

But this is where Anwar faces a political Catch-22. Accepting Adams could be seen as a capitulation to the pro-Zionist lobby in the US. It might also present Anwar’s government with an awkward dilemma, particularly if Adams continues with his public advocacy for Israel as US ambassador to Malaysia. It will also likely cause an erosion of support for Anwar and his government from the Malaysian Muslim community. The acceptance of Adams can also be used as easy canon fodder for the opposition and the premier’s long-time nemesis, former Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamed, who is known for his long-established support for the Palestinian cause.

If he decides to withhold Malaysia’s consent for Adams’ appointment, this could bring swift retaliation from Trump who will see it as an insult since Adams is his personal nominee and not a career diplomat. Countries have seen how Trump has weaponised tariffs to punish countries which run trade deficits with the US and are deemed to have offended the US president. If Malaysia snubs Adams, Trump could ratchet up the tariffs. This would only aggravate the economic impact on the Malaysian economy, which is forecast to grow at a slower rate of 4 per cent in 2025 compared to previous predictions of 4.5-5.5 per cent. This will hurt the pocketbooks of ordinary Malaysians and impact Anwar’s political capital.

Just when Anwar appears to have emerged from the midterm blues with some momentum, he now faces an almost impossible dilemma.

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