A Resurgent UMNO: Daring Anwar, But Not Walking Out Just Yet

Momentum appears to be swinging back to the Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition, particularly the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) which ruled Malaysia for six decades prior to its historic defeat in 2018. UMNO is now part of the Unity Government led by Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim from the Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition, but the party is showing some swagger, based on the confidence that it could return to power without PH after the next general election. UMNO has called on PH to expel it from the coalition. Short of PH expelling UMNO, however, UMNO is unlikely to leave the coalition.

Three developments have fed this mood.

First, BN handsomely won the state elections in Johor in July and Negeri Sembilan the following month. BN won 48 of 56 seats in Johor, and secured 25 of 36 seats in Negeri Sembilan. This was done with an electoral pact with opposition Perikatan Nasional (PN), ending PH’s eight-year rule there. In the Negeri Sembilan polls, two prominent PH politicians were felled: Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) Vice President Aminuddin Harun and Democratic Action Party (DAP) Secretary General Anthony Loke. BN is also on track to retain power in Malacca, which dissolved its state assembly on 23 September and needs to hold a state election within 60 days. 

Secondly, the King has decided to grant former UMNO President and Prime Minister Najib Razak a conditional pardon, commuting his 1MDB-related prison sentence to house arrest. This has energised the party’s grassroots.

Thirdly, UMNO President and Deputy Prime Minister Ahmad Zahid Hamidi threw down the gauntlet to critics within PH at the UMNO General Assembly held in mid-September. He dared PH to call for an early election or formally expel UMNO from the Unity Government and test its majority via a vote of no confidence in the Dewan Rakyat.

That was the most public display of deteriorating ties between Zahid and Anwar, and by extension UMNO and PH. However, Zahid appeared to backtrack at a subsequent press conference. He maintained that UMNO would remain in the Unity Government until the end of the term.

There are other factors behind UMNO’s deteriorating relationship with the Unity Government. Party stalwarts such as Abdul Azeez Abdul Rahim (former Tabung Haji chairman and close ally of Najib) and former Religious Affairs Minister Jamil Khir Baharom (former UMNO Kedah liaison chief) have been arrested and charged with graft allegations. Former UMNO Vice President Ismail Sabri Yaakob and current Malaysian Indian Congress (MIC) Deputy President Saravanan Murugan were also charged earlier following investigations by the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MIC is a BN component party). A possible backlash from UMNO supporters dovetails with a longer-standing anxiety that the party’s continued association with Anwar and DAP (derisively cast by critics as “UMDAP” – a portmanteau of UMNO and DAP) would hurt UMNO’s prospect of recovering Malay support.

Interestingly, Zahid did not mention a third option that lies entirely within UMNO’s control — namely, leaving the government and forcing Anwar’s hand for early dissolution. The calculus is relatively straightforward: Parliament’s term expires in December 2027, and the general election must be held by February 2028, but UMNO prefers an early election, given that momentum is currently on their side.

UMNO is also feeling buoyant about its prospects in the next general election because it has several routes back to Putrajaya.

Two reasons may explain UMNO’s reluctance to quit the Unity Government. First, UMNO has never contested a general election as an opposition party. It governed continuously from independence in 1957 until 2018, and returned to power less than two years later through the 2020 Sheraton Move, in which BN and other allied parties conspired in a political manoeuvre that led to the fall of a PH coalition government. UMNO went into the 2022 general election with its then-Vice President Ismail Sabri as prime minister in charge of a caretaker government. If UMNO leaves the government and is unsuccessful at triggering a snap election immediately, they face up to 15 months without access to government machinery and state resources.

Second, UMNO is not certain about support from Borneo. Anwar’s Unity Government commands some 150 MPs. If BN quits, Anwar’s support would drop to 120 seats – a simple majority above the 112-seat threshold required to sustain a government, provided Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) and Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) stay on. UMNO would surrender its ministries and government resources without triggering a dissolution. If PH calls UMNO’s bluff and expels it from the ruling coalition, UMNO is free to play the aggrieved party. They can exploit this to persuade Borneo partners that PH “destabilised” the Unity Government rather than UMNO (the optics of being the first-mover to trigger government collapse is not appealing to the public at a time of economic uncertainty and potential energy crisis, as PN has learned.)

But the Borneo parties have little reason to leave. On 11 September, Anwar chaired the MA63 Implementation Action Council in Kota Kinabalu with Sabah Chief Minister Hajiji Noor and Sarawak Premier Abang Johari Openg. The federal government agreed to raise Sabah and Sarawak’s share of parliamentary seats, a change that requires a constitutional amendment. Sabah and Sarawak each will also receive a MYR1.5 billion (USD367 million) interim special grant this year as negotiations continue over the state’s push for 40 per cent revenue entitlement, plus other initiatives announced on Malaysia Day. With concessions coming from a prime minister who needs their support, GPS and GRS have no guarantee that a successor would be as accommodating as Anwar. This is particularly true if a coalition wins an outright majority with seats in Peninsular Malaysia without necessarily requiring support from Borneo to form the federal government.

UMNO is also feeling buoyant about its prospects in the next general election because it has several routes back to Putrajaya. Out of six scenarios, five are plausible. Four could see UMNO returning to take the reins of federal government (Table 1).

Table 1. GE16 routes to power for Peninsula-based coalitions

Winning coalition/configuration (112 seats = majority)	Outlook based on current seats and recent state elections	UMNO returning to power
BN solo	Plausible, if momentum of state elections persists.	Yes, in a commanding position.
BN with PN	Plausible, if massive pro-Malay unity sentiment sweeps through Peninsular Malaysia.	Yes, but which party gets to be PM and controls key ministries depend on respective seat counts.
BN with PH	Plausible, if BN fails to reach agreement with PN on seat negotiation/PM candidate.	Yes, might strike a deal to allow Anwar serving a second term – either full term or agreement to rotate/pass to UMNO midway.
PN solo	Plausible, if PAS-led PN decimates BN and PH in the Malay belt.	No. Government formation will not require UMNO, but they may still join the government as a junior partner to bolster its majority.
PH solo	Unlikely, since PH has lost momentum and is unable to replicate the excitement of the 2018’s campaign.	No, Government formation will not require UMNO, but they may still join the government as a junior partner to bolster its majority.
Peninsular coalitions unable to win solo or reach agreement to form a government; each seeks Borneo’s support (BN-Borneo/ PN-Borneo/ PH-Borneo)	Plausible, if there is a hung parliament.	Contingent on negotiations. Anwar has generated considerable goodwill from Borneo given his government’s concessions to Sabah and Sarawak, but UMNO has longstanding ties with Borneo parties (especially Sarawak), many of whom used to be part of their BN coalition.

Note on coalition memberships as of 25 September 2026:
Barisan Nasional (BN): UMNO, MCA, MIC, PBRS, PPP;
Pakatan Harapan (PH): PKR, DAP, Amanah. UPKO left in November 2025;
Perikatan Nasional (PN): PAS, Wawasan, Gerakan, MIPP, Pejuang. Bersatu’s membership is disputed at the time of writing. The Registrar of Society also suspended all PN activities on 23 Sept 2026 and gave it 30 days to defend itself against Bersatu’s complaint to avoid deregistration;
Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS): PBB, SUPP, PRS, PDP;
Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS): Gagasan Rakyat, PBS, LDP, PHRS, PCS, UPKO.

UMNO is here to stay for the foreseeable future. In Zahid’s eight years as president, the party has spent a mere 22 months outside federal power. Its proximity to power is not incidental but existential and a near-necessity. Abandoning the reins of power voluntarily is a gamble that UMNO has never taken. The party is likely to enter the next general election still in government. The question is whether it does so as part of Anwar’s Unity Government, or under some other configuration.

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