Southeast Asia’s Food-Security Worries Are Falling, But Not the Risks

The 2026 Southeast Asia Climate Outlook Survey, now in its sixth edition, found that the public’s concern about climate change’s impact on food security is falling across the region. Is the region lowering its guard just as climate pressures on its food systems build?

The survey found that 44.9 per cent of Southeast Asians perceived that climate change impacts would affect their lives greatly in ten years’ time, down from 48.8 per cent in 2024. Furthermore, the share of respondents who believe that climate change was not a threat to them or their country increased from 3.5 per cent in 2024 to 5.9 per cent this year.

The decline was mirrored in concerns about climate change’s impact on food availability and affordability over the next three years. Those who were “very concerned” fell from 30.2 per cent in 2024 to 25.4 per cent in 2026, and “somewhat concerned” fell further still, from 46.0 to 33.0 per cent in the same period (Figure 1). Eight of the original ten ASEAN countries (excluding Timor Leste) saw the “very concerned” share drop by roughly five percentage points or more. The 2026 survey introduced a new “neutral” response option, which may account for part of the drop in “somewhat concerned” numbers. The only country more worried was Laos, whose agriculture is heavily rain-fed.

The proportion of respondents growing their own food because of climate change also fell from 25.0 per cent in 2024 to 21.8 per cent in 2026. All countries except Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore saw homegrown food fall by at least 3 percentage points (Figure 2). This may reflect the fading pandemic-era of food growing or the easing of retail food prices.

Figure 1. Concerns are Easing

Figure 2. Home Provisions

The lower attribution of climate change to food insecurity could be due to other factors. One is that food stress could be attributed elsewhere — to geopolitics such as the US tariffs, the US-led war against Iran and to economics (for example, depreciating currencies). It could also be due to improvements in food security experience. Respondents feeling food insecurity “frequently” and “all of the time” fell in most ASEAN countries between 2024 and 2026 (Figure 3). This is consistent with World Bank and United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) assessments that the region’s food security improved in 2025.

In many countries, respondents also drew fewer links between climate impacts and their experience of food insecurity in most countries (Figure 4). Floods and drought, while still the top two climate impacts, were seen as less connected to food unavailability than in 2024. This was most evident in Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar and the Philippines. Indeed, Cambodia, Indonesia and Thailand saw bigger rice harvests and surpluses, as well as slower food price inflation over the past two years. The latter reason may be cyclical relief due to wetter conditions in the region in 2024–2025 related to a weak La Niña following the 2023–2024 El Niño. These conditions boost harvests for a season but not for the longer term; as a result, respondents may have felt temporary relief. A relief in food pressure is not the same as reduced exposure to insecurity.

“ … the deterioration in the region’s food security from climate change is structural, and the region cannot afford to lower its guard.

This change does not apply to Timor Leste, which is a new inclusion in this year’s survey. Timorese respondents indicated the highest experience of moderate or severe food insecurity (29.6 per cent) in the region (Figure 3). Its food insecurity has been shaped by decades-long conflict and agriculturally-unfavourable geography featuring poor soils, steep slopes and weak irrigation. Increasingly, climate change has been disrupting production through intensifying precipitation, droughts, floods and cyclones. The result has been chronic seasonal hunger and heavy reliance on imports for over 60 per cent of food needs, alongside stunting affecting 47 per cent of Timorese children under five. Timorese respondents cited rising food prices (17 per cent), lack of government priority for domestic food output (15.5 per cent) and extreme weather events (14.5 per cent) as the top three reasons for food insecurity.

Figure 3. Timor Leste Bears Brunt of Food Insecurity

The 2026 Survey findings provide some “food” for thought. The public may be de-linking their food insecurity experience from climate change, either by crediting cyclical relief or blaming geopolitics. However, the deterioration in the region’s food security from climate change is structural, and the region cannot afford to lower its guard. Were the survey repeated in the near future, food insecurity would likely rise again should forecasts hold for the looming record-breaking El Niño. The recent International Institute for Environment and Development’s Food Security Index, offers some insights. Based on scores 0–10, only Malaysia (7.72) and Vietnam (6.90) sit above the global average score of 6.74. Thailand is relatively close at 6.56, but the other five ASEAN countries (the index excluded Singapore, Brunei and Timor Leste) are substantially below it. More sobering still, the index projects the region’s score to drop significantly further under 1.5 degree Celsius, 2.0 degree Celsius and 4.0 degree Celsius warming scenarios.

Figure 4. Climatic Impacts

To address this structural deterioration, Southeast Asian nations should invest in “no regret” actions to boost resilience, production and cooperation. To boost resilience, national governments should prioritise irrigation and flood management infrastructure, early warning systems and social safety nets. It can also improve resilience by raising public awareness and education about climate impacts on agri-food. To support production, they could better resource regulatory review to speed up approvals for climate-smart inputs and technologies, settle legacy land disputes to secure farmer tenures and facilitate programmes that lower the risks of farmers adopting climate-smart agriculture. Leveraging regional and international cooperation, shared food stockpiles, facilitation of free and open trade and technical assistance can help to spread risk across the region. These measures will deliver payoffs not only when disasters strike, but through the cyclical downturns in between.

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Author’s Note: The SEACO survey was conducted in 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 (first time food questions included), 2024 and finally 2026. This year’s survey applied unweighted analytical approaches, in contrast with previous survey reports which applied different weighting approaches.