COP28: Enhanced Food Security in Southeast Asia?

The United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) last year was historic. For the first time, nearly 160 countries tabled plans to align and integrate their food and agriculture sectors into their climate change commitments.

COP28, which ended on 12 December, was the first time agri-food systems were “on the table”. Not only was there a whole day dedicated to agri-food systems, but the conference also opened with the launch of the Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems, And Climate Action. The non-legally binding document was signed by 159 countries including all ASEAN nations except Laos and Myanmar. The Declaration requests signatories to align and integrate food and agriculture in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs, or countries’ self-defined climate plans), National Adaptation Plans and National Biodiversity Strategies and Action Plans to achieve the Paris Agreement’s long-term goals before COP30 in Brazil in 2025. NAPs are documents containing medium and long-term plans, while NBSAPs are their conservation and sustainable plans for biological resources.  Agriculture and food contribute a third of the world’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Therefore, its detailed inclusion in mitigation and adaptation action is critical.

A Food Systems Road Map, mirroring the 2021 road map of the International Energy Agency, was also launched by the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). The aim is to avoid crossing the 1.5^oC threshold set in the Paris Agreement. The FAO Road Map proposes cutting methane emissions by livestock by 25 per cent, halving emissions from food waste by 2030, and diversifying staple food crops. Furthermore, the final Global Stocktake document — which reviewed the progress on climate action from 2015 till now and sets a future course — included text on the importance of sustainable agriculture in responding to climate change. The document, however, lacked explicit references to food and agriculture in its mitigation section. This indicates a lack of commitment to reduce the use of fossil-fuel-derived fertiliser and other inputs. 

The developments come just as Southeast Asia is projected to see food stress from climate and El Nino impacts in 2024. The region needs to prioritise action to mitigate carbon emissions from agrifood systems and adapt to more resilient food production and systems.

As of 2021, Southeast Asia’s agrifood systems contributed 1.92 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide), which is 5.2 per cent of the global emissions of 36.8 Gt CO₂eq. This is not an inconsequential amount. Of the total, land use change, production and pre/post production (activities along the value chain) contributed GHG emissions of 0.46 Gt, 0.82 Gt and 0.42 Gt of CO₂eq in 2021 respectively. The figures indicate that production on farms contributes the highest share of GHG emissions, which is more than the annual GHG emissions from Canada (0.73 Gt of CO₂eq) or Saudi Arabia (0.78 Gt of CO₂eq) in the same year. The region’s three highest emitters of GHG emissions were Indonesia, Thailand, and Myanmar (see Table 1).

Southeast Asia’s Consequential Carbon Emissions

Table 1: Net and agrifood systems GHG emissions in Southeast Asian nations.

Country	Net emissions 2021 (million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent, Mt CO2eq)	Agrifood systems emissions 2021 (Mt CO2eq)	Agrifood systems emissions as a % of Net emissions
Indonesia	1,128.06	800.94	71.0
Thailand	455.67	187.92	41.2
Myanmar	166.96	184.63	110.6
Vietnam	496.73	149.60	30.1
Malaysia	334.67	123.01	36.8
Philippines	254.43	107.20	42.1
Cambodia	49.69	61.99	124.8
Lao People’s Democratic Republic	36.62	28.68	78.3
Singapore	71.34	4.92	6.9
Brunei Darussalam	15.34	1.64	10.7

For their agriculture sectors, ASEAN nations have included the need for mitigation and adaptation in their most recent NDCs, though levels of detail differ between countries (see Table 2). Vietnam has by far been the most ambitious of the ASEAN nations. It has a programme for one million hectares of low carbon rice production in the Mekong region by the year 2030. The project has set targets to reduce seedlings to less than 70kg per hectare, reduce chemical fertiliser and pesticide use by 30 per cent, and reduce water use by 20 per cent.

Mitigation and Adaptation

Table 2: Southeast Asian inclusion of agrifood systems in Mitigation and Adaptation plans

	Most recent NDCs	Targets	Summary of mention of agrifood systems in recent NDC documents
Brunei Darussalam	Brunei Darussalam Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) 2020 (2020)	Net zero by 2050	Recognition of climate impacts on agrifood systems; lacking details on mitigation and adaptation of the sector.
Cambodia	Cambodia’s Updated Nationally Determined Contribution (2020)	Carbon neutrality by 2050	Plans for reductions in GHG sourced from agri-food sector by 23% by 2030 through mitigation and adaptation actions.
Indonesia	Enhanced Nationally Determined Contribution (2022)	Net zero emissions by 2060 or sooner	Plans for GHG reductions in agri-sector by 0.3%. Has national agriculture mitigation plans for food security through low emission crops, transition to non-synthetic fertiliser and agri-sourced methane reductions. Adaptation through climate resilient agriculture.
Lao People’s Democratic Republic	Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) (2021)	Net zero by 2050	Mitigation through low-carbon rice cultivation and reduced farmland burning. Adaptation through climate resilient farming and appropriate technologies.
Malaysia	Malaysia’s Update of its First Nationally Determined Contribution (2021)	Carbon neutrality by 2050	Broad stroke plans for mitigation and adaptation in agri-food sector to secure food security.
Myanmar	Nationally Determined Contributions (2021)	NA	Has a conditional cumulative target of sequestering 10.4 Mt CO2eq between 2021 to 2030. Adaptation through climate resilient measures.
Philippines	Nationally Determined Contribution Communicated to the UNFCCC on 15 April 2021 (2021)	NA	Broad stroke recognition of the need for mitigation and adaptation in the agri-food sector.
Singapore	Second Update of its First Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and Accompanying Information (2022)	Net zero by 2050	Minimal agri industry; adaptation by increasing local food production
Thailand	2nd Updated Nationally Determined Contribution (2022)	Carbon neutrality by 2050 and net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2065	No specific emissions reduction target for agri-sector. Adoption of broad stroke climate resilient farming for adaptation measures.
Vietnam	Updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) (2022)	Net zero by 2050	To reduce methane emissions by 30% from 2020 levels by 2030. Mitigation through low carbon agriculture. Adaptation through climate-smart agriculture.

Few ASEAN nations, however, have considered mitigation and adaptation measures beyond agriculture to extend to the food system — that is, to cover the entire value chain, social protection for its stakeholders and food waste. Pre/ post-farm production contributes half the emissions generated by the agriculture sector, and is key to the resilience of food systems. One option for the region could be to adopt measures as identified by COP28’s “Innovation Commission for Climate Change, Food Security and Agriculture”. The seven areas demonstrate “strong evidence of impact and cost-effectiveness, and a plausible pathway to scale”. These are: improve weather forecasting; expand digital agriculture extension services, establish and improve climate-responsive social protection programmes; promote rainwater harvesting; expand microbial fertilisers; adopt measures to reduce livestock methane emissions and adopt alternative proteins.

Vietnam has by far been the most ambitious of the ASEAN nations. It has a programme for one million hectares of low carbon rice production in the Mekong region by the year 2030.

Southeast Asia currently does not attract significant global funds for mitigation and adaptation in agrifood systems. Agrifood systems globally receive only 4 per cent of climate finance, of which only a fifth goes to smallholders. COP28 saw the launch of new agrifood-systems-focused funds, including the CGIAR fund (US$890 million pledged with a target of US$4 billion) and the Bezos Earth Fund (US$57 million pledged with a target of US$1 billion by 2030). But much of these monies are earmarked for the rest of the Global South, not Southeast Asia. It would be useful if Southeast Asia could profile some of its capabilities in decarbonisation in agrifood systems to attract more funds. Cambodia, as a founding member of the COP28, has announced the Alliance of Champions for Food Systems Transformation. Cambodia could use the platform to raise the region’s profile. In time, perhaps more funds can be directed to Southeast Asia.

Ultimately however, whether Southeast Asia is able to solve its food security problems will depend on its commitment, clarity of plans and ability to finance, monitor and continually improve its actions in the agrifood systems sector. It is hoped that agrifood stakeholders in the region derive measurable benefits over the next few crucial years, to put a significant dent in decarbonisation, and achieve the ambitious global mitigation and adaptation targets.

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