Marcos Jr Versus Duterte: Betrayal and Loyalty in the 2025 Philippine Midterm Elections

The May 2025 midterm elections in the Philippines are shaping up to be less of an informal referendum on the Marcos Jr administration and more of an expression of betrayal and loyalty. While President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr and Vice President Sara Duterte are not up for re-election, the race for half of the 24-member nationally elected Senate will be their proxy battle for political power. The president and vice president have parted ways and endorsed different senatorial slates.

From campaigning together as the “UniTeam” in the 2022 presidential elections, Marcos Jr and Duterte’s rift is now clearly “open warfare”. The midterm elections will be a manifestation of a new round of pernicious polarisation inflicted by the ruling elites.

The UniTeam’s bitter divorce contained an intense emotional component that gave energy to an affective polarisation that divides the elites and the Filipino people alike, not on ideological lines but through their deep emotional alignment with one camp or the other, and a corresponding, sustained distrust of the opposing camp. Since political parties in the Philippines lack clear ideological leanings, party loyalties are built around strong personalities. Betrayals are ruptures of personal, more than political, ties.

Why is looking at affective polarisation and facets of loyalty and betrayal important in the Filipino context? First, unbridled affective polarisation can shift the conversation away from real-life implications of electoral outcomes, sideline other voices such as those of the candidates from progressive groups, and keep the public absorbed and distracted by an “us versus them” narrative. Second, emotions could embolden polarising rhetoric and behaviour from the candidates and their supporters. Third, some winning candidates, especially senators, could respond to these emotions when they act as jurors on Sara Duterte’s looming impeachment trial. The outcome of this pivotal electoral process seems to be determined more by these polarising emotions rather than what should safeguard the nation’s interests.

Elite-led polarisation is not new in the Philippines. The country’s warring political dynasties have long directed episodes of contentious political conflict. In recent memory, political chaos reigned, including during the Ferdinand Marcos Sr versus “Ninoy” (Benigno) and Corazon Aquino episode in the 1980s and the Joseph Estrada versus Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo race in the 2000s. From 2016-2022, Rodrigo Duterte instigated his own battle against liberal-democratic elites, civil society, and independent media during his administration.

What makes this round of polarisation different is the fact that Marcos Jr and Sara Duterte are erstwhile political allies. Although some observers have noted that the alliance was “broken from the start”, as it was built without the foundations of strong party discipline and programme alignment, the UniTeam proved unassailable after getting a historic electoral mandate from the Filipino electorate. Cracks in the alliance, however, appeared by early 2024. These were driven by domestic and foreign policy differences but worsened by a nasty exchange of personal attacks. For instance, Rodrigo Duterte once called Marcos Jr a drug addict and Marcos Jr fired back suggesting it was perhaps the fentanyl talking, alluding to Duterte’s medication.

As the situation worsened, Sara Duterte drew a categorical line in the sand. In March 2024, she attended a rally that called for Marcos Jr to resign. That June, she left the cabinet and resigned as education secretary. Things escalated when she lashed out on social media, denouncing the president and his allies, and going as far as to threaten violence. This came amid the congressional hearings launched by members of the administration-backed majority (in the House of Representatives) to deal with the corruption allegations against Sara Duterte.

This manoeuvre by Marcos Jr’s political allies splintered the supporters into rival camps and mobilised their emotions of loyalty and betrayal.

A pivotal round in this dynastic war occurred when the House of Representatives impeached Sara Duterte in February 2025. This manoeuvre by Marcos Jr’s political allies splintered the supporters into rival camps and mobilised their emotions of loyalty and betrayal.

Further igniting the situation was the arrest of Rodrigo Duterte in March 2025 to face charges at the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity. These charges specifically concerned the extrajudicial killings under his “war on drugs” when Duterte Sr was mayor of Davao City, and later as President.

It is with the elder Duterte’s arrest that we see Filipinos’ affective polarisation heightening as the road to the midterm elections transformed into an emotionally charged campaign. After Rodrigo Duterte’s arrest, Marcos Jr’s approval ratings dropped by as much as 17 per cent while Sara Duterte’s increased by seven per cent. Sara Duterte’s supporters pushed for a narrative alleging Marcos Jr had a hand in the arrest of her father and that the president lacked honour. Alliances further shifted in April when senatorial candidates Imee Marcos (Marcos Jr’s elder sister) and Camille Villar, both previously backed by the president, released campaign advertisements where they appeared with Sara. Imee Marcos even accused members of Marcos Jr’s cabinet of legal violations, given their role in facilitating Rodrigo Duterte’s surrender to the ICC.

The political drama unfolding in the lead-up to the Philippines’ 2025 midterm polls may be captivating for some and perhaps exhausting for others. It is a moment of reckoning for the nation. Will Filipino voters allow their emotional attachments to deepen the divide conjured by warring elites? On 12 May 2025, both ballots and feelings will decide.

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