Outlook for Agriculture and ASEAN’s Role in Southeast Asia’s Food Security

BACKGROUND

Agriculture has been the backbone of Southeast Asia’s economic growth and is crucial for food security, livelihoods and environmental sustainability. The region has some of the world’s most agriculturally productive areas, providing nutrition to 700 million residents and incomes to more than a hundred million farmers. Southeast Asia also contributes approximately 9% of global agricultural exports of food, feed, fibre and industrial products. Meanwhile, ASEAN is also poised to be the world’s fourth-largest trade bloc by 2030.

Yet, the region’s agriculture sector is operating under “VUCA” conditions—volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous—while different states are concurrently undergoing structural transformation of their rural economies, albeit at different rates and in different forms. For decades, the sector has faced chronic underinvestment, labour exodus, and resource constraints. It faces volatility from geopolitical conflicts, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and the current tariff wars. On top of it all is the growing pall of climate change, which has resulted in increasingly dire floods, droughts, heat waves, storms, and sea level rise; these impacts are expected to amplify as global temperatures continue to warm. Historically, hunger and food insecurity have contributed to political and social upheaval. It is thus imperative that ASEAN member states (AMS) urgently act to safeguard this sector to prevent it from becoming a source of instability.

This article highlights the current outlook for the agriculture sector in Southeast Asia, shares the progress made by ASEAN to advance the sector, provides suggestions for practical solutions to improve its climate resilience and sustainability, and recommends crucial actions in this area.

SECTOR OUTLOOK

Agriculture contributed 9.8 per cent of ASEAN’s GDP in 2022 (US$354.3 billion); the contribution was highest for Myanmar (22.6 per cent), followed by Cambodia (22.2 per cent), Lao PDR (17.8 per cent), and Indonesia (12.4 per cent). Key products include rice, palm oil, seafood, livestock products, fruit and vegetables. Agriculture, together with fisheries and forestry, employs approximately a quarter of the people in ASEAN; its employment is highest in Myanmar, Laos and Thailand (Table 1). Beyond providing food, agriculture generates revenue for the region through trade. The value of agricultural exports has been increasing in every country in Southeast Asia, especially for Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Laos (Table 2), although the percentage contribution of agriculture to national economies has been declining. Similarly, imports have been increasing; this may imply higher dependency on external sources for food and feed. Intra-ASEAN investment in agriculture has grown steadily, reaching US$208.5 million in 2022. AMS are keen to promote agricultural trade, particularly intra-ASEAN trade, to contribute to a favourable balance of payments, economic growth and food resilience.

Table 1: Contribution of Agriculture to SEA countries

	Value of Agricultural Production (Billion US$)		As share of GDP (%)		Share of employment in Agriculture, Fishery and Forestry (%)
Country	2021#	2022#	2021*	2022*	2021*	2022*
South-east Asia	303.01	317.31
Brunei Darussalam	0.16	0.17	1.3	1.1	1.4	1.5
Cambodia	13.08	14.69	22.8	22.2	49.2	33.1
Indonesia	124.77	138.63	13.3	12.4	28.3	28.6
Lao PDR	4.81	3.59	16.0	17.8	45.4	57.5
Malaysia	28.51	30.99	9.6	8.9	10.3	10.0
Myanmar	N.A.	N.A.	22.7	22.6	48.2	48.9
Philippines	33.62	31.24	10.1	9.5	24.2	23.1
Singapore	0.12	0.15	0.0	0.0	–	–
Thailand	44.50	45.62	8.7	8.8	31.9	30.4
Vietnam	52.78	51.63	12.6	11.9	29.1	27.5

Table 2: Agricultural Trade for ASEAN Member States.

	Export Value (Million US$)			Import Value (Million US$)
Area	2015	2020	2023	2015	2020	2023
Brunei Darussalam	3.9	3.8	5.1	471.2	530.5	558.6
Cambodia	587.0	1,082.9	1,855.5	968.5	1,752.5	3,117.1
Indonesia	32,774.1	36,703.1	48,274.6	15,440.8	18,621.7	26,917.4
Lao PDR	767.8	1,668.0	1,557.6	596.6	960.3	1,386.7
Malaysia	22,311.4	23,349.8	29,293.8	16,264.6	17,584.5	22,344.4
Myanmar	3,808.4	4,194.1	3,599.3	2,660.4	2,163.6	1,844.7
Philippines	40,54.6	5,367.0	5,663.7	7,900.1	12,062.5	17,731.2
Singapore	10,015.0	12,729.9	13,470.6	11,626.2	12,801.5	15,938.5
Thailand	29,385.8	32,532.0	42,939.5	11,223.4	13,036.0	16,961.0
Timor-Leste	7.6	15.7	19.0	159.0	151.1	300.0
Vietnam	16,418.7	18,249.9	19,578.0	15,114.4	21,765.7	33,532.4
South-east Asia	120,134.5	135,896.2	166,256.7	82,425.2	101,429.8	140,632.1

The average annual production growth of staples has stagnated at under 1.3 per cent or has been in decline (Table 3). This is despite agricultural land seeing a net increase of 16 per cent (Figure 1).

The lacklustre growth can be correlated to low national government investment in agriculture, as governments remain the largest investor in agriculture and rural services. All countries in ASEAN, with the exception of Thailand, have consistently spent less than 10 per cent of their annual national budget on agriculture. Malaysia, the Philippines, and Cambodia have seen the most decline in investment (Figure 2). While the food, agriculture and forestry (FAF) sector is the destination of approximately 10 per cent of foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2020, these investments have mainly been made to enhance food traceability, transparency, and control of information flow within the supply chain.

Overall, while the agriculture sector in ASEAN will continue to be a key part of AMS’ economies, contributing to trade and providing livelihoods for a large proportion of the population, its growth rates are not likely to keep pace with population and national economic growth. The historical lack of investment has put the sector on shaky footing, especially considering the looming threats and challenges.

Table 3: Growth Rates of ASEAN’s Five Major Food Commodities, 2013-2022 (%)

Products	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	Avg Annual Growth 2013-2022
Rice	4.1	0.6	-0.6	-0.3	1.9	-11.2	-3.2	2.8	3.4	-1.8	-0.4
Maize	-0.5	2.3	1.0	10.2	11.3	-14.9	4.6	-1.5	1.4	-0.5	1.3
Soybean	-5.7	12.0	-1.8	-2.8	-33.9	9.8	-27.7	-22.8	-13.4	14.5	-7.2
Sugarcane	-0.9	3.2	0.2	-6.6	0.7	18.9	-15.2	-6.3	19.4	-1.6	1.2
Cassava	2.7	0.8	9.4	-2.6	-1.4	-3.4	-0.2	6.3	3.8	-3.8	1.2

Figure 1: Area considered agricultural land in Southeast Asia, 2005-2022

Figure 2: Proportion of total national government expenditure allocated to agriculture, 2005-2023

TRENDS AND CHALLENGES IN THE AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECTOR

The biggest threat to agriculture in Southeast Asia is that posed by climate change. The UN has projected that the region’s GDP will be reduced by 6 per cent due to climate impacts on agriculture by the end of the century. Another study has projected that ASEAN could lose 35 per cent of its GDP (from all sectors) by 2050. The changing climate will impact yields. For example, rice yields are expected to decline by 10 per cent for every 1°C rise in maximum daily temperature. It will also erode arable land and impoverish soils, especially where arable land is already facing degradation and decline due to pollution and overuse. It is calculated that this will lead to a loss of 10 per cent of cropland in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam by as early as 2028 if no action is taken. The loss will be exacerbated by competition for arable land from urbanisation, industrialisation and other uses. While some countries have responded by converting forested land or other natural areas for agriculture, this contributes to deforestation and increases overall national carbon emissions, further exacerbating climate change. Moreover, the overuse and pollution of water have also contributed to its scarcity for farming. The Asian Development Bank has calculated that there may be a 40 per cent shortfall between water demand and supply by 2030 in the region.

The historical lack of investment has put the sector on shaky footing, especially considering the looming threats and challenges.

Despite the serious consequences of climate change, the region has been slow in adopting mitigation and adaptation measures in the agriculture sector. Aside from policies to decarbonise rice adopted by some AMS, mitigation efforts have focused on reforestation or moving towards renewable energy in the agriculture sector. However, these efforts may be insufficient, especially as their application to the vast majority of smallholder producers is limited. For the agriculture sector, adaptation efforts—adjusting to new climate effects by moderating harm or exploiting benefits—are crucial for the sector’s security, resilience and sustainability. This includes adopting climate-smart agriculture and crop diversification. Adaptation efforts, too, have yet to feature strongly in AMS policies.

Another major challenge is declining farming populations. Many farmers are ageing. In Indonesia, the average age of farmers is above 45, and in Vietnam, it is approximately 55. This is compounded by rural-urban migration and a low replacement rate by younger farmers. Poor remuneration in the sector has also pushed many would-be farmers to migrate overseas for jobs.

The VUCA environment is also expected to impact trade. Domestic shortages or geopolitical tensions (including tariff wars) create trade volatility, national bans on agricultural exports or export limits. This forces the need to realign trade, increasing the cost of business and inflating prices for producers and consumers alike.

Consumer demand and consumption patterns are also expected to shift in the coming decades. Incomes in Southeast Asia are expected to continue to rise, resulting in the demand for more protein and less carbohydrates; for example, rice consumption decreased from 113 kg per person per year in 2010 to 108kg in 2022. According to the OECD, the top three food items expected to see the highest growth in demand will be pigmeat, roots and tubers and poultry. Some oil crops, such as palm oil, may see an uptick in demand for use as biofuels, and thus compete with their allocation for food. The demand for specialised food, such as halal or vegan, and nutritious foods will also increase. Concerns over food safety, especially with the empowerment of consumers by social media to air views on quality, safety, and aesthetics, will lead to greater investment by food companies in risk management, communication, and crisis response planning to stay competitive and ensure brand loyalty. Concerns over agriculture’s impact on biodiversity will also spur greater action towards sustainable farming and certification of sustainably-produced food.

The value of Southeast Asia’s food sector is expected to grow by 6.64 per cent annually (CAGR 2024-2029). However, part of this value will be caused by short- and long-term food price inflation instigated by the sector’s negative trends. This would lead to food unaffordability, causing greater food insecurity in the region.

ASEAN’S ROLE IN COORDINATING AND GROWING THE SECTOR

AMS have recognised their vulnerability to food insecurity and have taken steps to address it. One key guide for regional-level action alignment has been the ASEAN Food, Agriculture and Forestry (FAF) Strategic Plan of 2016-2025. As part of this Strategic Plan, ASEAN completed sectoral strategic plans of action (2016-2020 and 2021-2025), and a mid-term review was carried out in 2020. It has introduced measures towards sustainability, safety and trade alignments that have contributed to ASEAN’s vision for a “competitive, inclusive, resilient and sustainable FAF sector integrated with the global economy and based on a single market and production base, contributing to food and nutrition security and prosperity”.

Some of the key policies, guidelines and action statements are in Table 4 below:

Table 4: Key policies, guidelines and action statements by ASEAN

On Sustainability: ASEAN Regional Guidelines on Sustainable Agriculture (2022)Action Plan for Sustainable Agriculture (2023) ASEAN Guidelines on Promoting the Utilization of Digital Technologies for ASEAN Food and Agricultural Sector (2021) Policy Guidelines on Agroecology Transition in ASEAN (2024) Regional Guidelines for the ASEAN GAqP Certification Scheme.	On Resilience: ASEAN State of Climate Change Report ASEAN Guidelines on Agricultural Insurance Implementation (2022) ASEAN Guidelines for Promoting Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) Practices Vol. 3 (2022) Study on Nature-based Solutions (NbS) in ASEAN across forest, bare land and coastal ecosystems (2023)
On Inclusivity: ASEAN Guidelines on Promoting Responsible Investment in Food, Agriculture and Forestry (2018) ASEAN Guidelines on Promoting the Utilization of Digital Technologies for ASEAN Food and Agricultural Sector (2021)	On Competitiveness: ASEAN Solutions for Investments, Services, and Trade (ASSIST) Guidelines on Promoting the Utilisation of Digital Technologies for ASEAN Food and Agriculture Sector ASEAN Integrated Food Security (AIFS) Framework

These policy and guideline achievements have provided a solid foundation for ASEAN to launch into a new Vision for Food, Agriculture and Forestry Towards 2045, and a new FAF Sectoral Plan (2026-2030) that is integrated with other upcoming frameworks and plans, including the ASEAN Community Vision 2045, and the ASEAN Economic Community’s (AEC) future Blueprint. These new documents are intended to catalyse action towards a more resilient, inclusive, safe, and sustainable agriculture sector. The capability of ASEAN and its individual members to comprehensively address the numerous challenges, using all the tools and solutions available, will define Southeast Asia’s food security and, thereby, its social stability. In this, ASEAN can count on its many sectoral working groups and Dialogue Partners, such as Japan and Australia, to complement the efforts of AMS.

PATHWAYS TO SECURE ASEAN’S AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECTOR

The foundation of the health of ASEAN’s agriculture sector lies in the ability to secure production and trade. There are numerous interconnected ways to do this. Primarily, it requires enhancing agronomy and biotechnology (biotech) to innovate inputs for crop and animal agriculture, such as seeds, animal/fishery genetics, pest control, microbiome and animal health, to increase tolerance to heat, drought, salinity and pests and diseases. These require investments to develop solutions specific to this region, which Southeast Asia is currently lagging in. These further need to be combined with technologies designed to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (climate-tech), as agriculture contributes up to one-third of global GHG emissions.

Production can also be enhanced if complemented by other technologies, such as on-farm machinery, growing equipment, automation, drones or robotics. Digital technologies (digital-tech) will be key to linking farm management hardware to big data analytics and decision support. AI-enabled diagnostic tools using remote sensing or even simple imaging (photography or videography) tools have the potential to enhance yields through early diagnosis and interventions. Accurate and sophisticated weather forecasting capabilities can improve farmers’ decision-making on when to plant, irrigate, and harvest by improving the capabilities of existing ASEAN capabilities, such as the ASEAN Food Security Information System (AFSIS). Combined, these can improve productivity, reduce labour requirements and minimise risks. All require field testing for appropriateness and investments to expand their adoption. A recent UN study estimated that smallholder financing needs for such climate-smart agriculture are US$100 billion annually for Southeast Asia, but current financial resources are sufficient for less than one-third of this. Novel foods made from non-conventional sources (such as insects, algae or plant-based meat products), precision fermentation or biotechnological products (such as animal-free dairy products, egg proteins or cultivated meat), have the potential to complement current food sources. Enabling policies and regulations that require the reduction of organic waste may catalyse producers to valorise food manufacturing cast-offs (e.g. spent grain from beverage processing) for edible, feed and industrial uses, leading to greater food availability in the food system. These will require upgrading of testing, monitoring, verification processes, and developing novel food guidelines to ensure foods are safe for consumption.

Supply chain infrastructure, such as storage warehouses, shelf-life prolonging solutions, or traceability solutions, must be improved to reduce waste. Producers also need a supportive agriculture and food ecosystem. This includes more direct access to markets, talent and capability development, access to insurance and credit, access to effective and affordable machinery, access to affordable yield-enhancing inputs and services, affordable standards accreditation services to value-add, access to extension services for troubleshooting, targeted financial support, and security of tenure and leases to support prosperity building.

ASEAN IS STRONGER IF ITS MEMBERS WORK CLOSER TOGETHER

AMS currently make up for their domestic shortages in food availability by importing from countries, often beyond Southeast Asia, which have surplus food production. This strategy is currently still feasible as the world is only experiencing 1.3°C warming above the pre-industrial era. However, the United Nations’ Emissions Gap Report suggests that the world is on track for 2.6-3.1°C warming by the end of the century. In such a world, food production could fail in multiple countries concurrently, leading to acute global shortages and a reduced number of countries with export surpluses.

Despite the serious consequences of climate change, the region has been slow in adopting mitigation and adaptation measures in the agriculture sector.

Each AMS’s capacity to secure its food for the long term will be influenced by its implementation of strategies laid out in the ASEAN Strategic Plan for the FAF sector, 2026-2030. While ASEAN can catalyse action by national governments, a more involved approach may be needed to hasten adoption, including through the enactment of an ASEAN FAF Research and Policy Support Centre.  

Such a Centre would support the ASEAN Secretariat’s efforts to identify appropriate innovations and technologies, coordinate field testing and recommend winners for widespread adoption. The Centre could also provide evidence to guide the direction of funding from Dialogue Partners, multilateral banks, and international development agencies. It could also facilitate cross-country collaboration and targeted partnerships to hasten adoption and growth.

Agriculture in ASEAN is already known to be a highly vulnerable sector in one of the most vulnerable regions in the world to climate change. Without urgent attention and action, Southeast Asia may face devastating consequences. The region is stronger if it acts together. ASEAN can amplify efforts by enhancing research on common issues, technology adoption, coordination and collaboration. Ultimately, however, it requires each AMS to prioritise actions in the agriculture sector to ensure its residents have a food-secure future.

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This is an adapted version of ISEAS Perspective 2025/59 published on 18 August 2025. The paper and its references can be accessed at this link.