Pakatan Harapan Under Water: Can Reforms Bring It Afloat?

Malaysia’s recent Johor and Negeri Sembilan state elections suggest that a renewed “Malay unity” pact has found a winning formula to defeat multi-ethnic Pakatan Harapan (PH), the linchpin of the federal government. Malay party United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) and Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS) have deepened collaboration between Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN), the coalitions they respectively command. The head of steam fuelling the BN-PN partnership should focus minds on PH to accelerate the slate of reforms which it has long promised but failed to deliver. The question, however, is whether PH can deliver on these promises before the next general election.

At Johor’s 18 July state assembly election, BN expanded its dominance from 40 to 48 seats, out of a total 56. PAS fared poorly but had instructed its supporters to vote for BN. The BN-PN pact tightened in Negeri Sembilan, where they engaged in pre-election collaboration, negotiating which seats they would contest to ensure direct mano-a-mano fights against PH. At the 1 August polls, BN’s tally of seats climbed from 14 to 18 seats and PN from 5 to 7. PH saw its tally go down from 17 to 11 seats. This consigned PH to the opposition, which now has no Malay representatives after all its Malay candidates, including incumbent Chief Minister Aminuddin Harun, lost. (PH’s Parti Keadilan Rakyat, led by Aminuddin in Negeri Sembilan, is Malay-led but not a Malay nationalist party like UMNO).

Having reaped such bounty, BN and PN have committed to cooperate in the upcoming Melaka state election and possibly the next general election, although the latter would entail tougher compromises. BN’s non-Malay component parties, the Malaysia Chinese Association (MCA) and Malaysian Indian Congress (MIC) made inroads in Johor and Negeri Sembilan. MCA seeks to represent Chinese interests, while the MIC does the same for Indian ones. Similarly, Parti Wawasan Negara, PN’s new Malay-dominant party, enjoyed some traction in the two polls. Overall, however, “Malay unity” is the most potent factor engulfing Peninsular Malaysian politics.

PH’s main parties Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) and Democratic Action Party (DAP) were reeling from these electoral setbacks when they held separate party congresses over the 15–16 August weekend. PKR, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s party, leads the coalition despite its 28 MPs numbering fewer than DAP’s 40. Both are multi-ethnic, but PKR is Malay-led while DAP is Chinese-heavy. And PKR has Anwar, the unrivalled leader of PH.

The two parties are causing mutual hurt from different angles. DAP is beleaguered by its affiliation with PKR, which, despite helming the federal Unity Government coalition that holds a parliamentary supermajority, has failed to deliver various promised reforms while allowing corruption to fester. A significant slice of both parties’ urban base is turning ambivalent toward PH, or even willing to cast their votes for other parties. DAP is also fiercely assailed as a party that threatens Malay interests, and this taints PKR by association.

PKR and DAP have differentiated themselves by championing reforms for decades, but the first PKR-led ruling coalition has, after nearly four years, fallen short of the promised clean, transparent and responsive government.

The Johor and Negeri Sembilan elections show that PH was hurt by lower turnout and the BN-PN pact’s dominance of the Malay vote. Some of PH’s base switched their votes, but more stayed home.

PH is cornered. Its political range of manoeuvre is limited, its economic stewardship competent but not resonant, and its reforms underwhelming.

PH’s multi-ethnic politics fundamentally differ from BN’s and PN’s mode of Malay primacy and ethnic representation. PKR and DAP have also chronically struggled to win the Malay vote. They have tended to rely on alliances with a major Malay party to undergird their legitimacy among Malaysia’s ethnic majority. Its component party Parti Amanah Negara (Amanah), a splinter party of PAS, has never made it to the big leagues. Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) led the PH government after the May 2018 election victory until its implosion in February 2020. Anwar secured power for PH after the November 2022 election by sealing a partnership with UMNO President Zahid Hamidi.

Malaysia’s political complexity is reaching new heights, with BN and PH aligning in federal government but duelling in elections. Their policies and associated political costs will continue to persist for both camps in the growing divide. UMNO-PAS’ ethno-centric politics will roll on and could cost the two parties, primarily in urban and ethnically mixed constituencies. Without a major Malay party in its ranks, PH remains vulnerable to “anti-Malay” aspersions. Retaining its sliver of the Malay electorate, who constitute the majority in 118 out of 165 Peninsular parliamentary seats, will be hard enough.

Naturally, the clarion call of PKR’s congress was to regain the public’s trust as the flagbearer of reform, moderation, and people-centric policies and to regroup after bouts of internal strife. Macroeconomic headlines reflect steady progress and mitigated impacts of global crises, but the PKR-led government has lost popularity and credibility due to lingering economic woes and unrealised reforms.   

PH also faces an uphill policy battle because its platform is not readily distinguishable from BN’s or PN’s — with some exceptions such as Malay preferential policies. Malaysia’s national coalitions have congregated around a centrist platform of broad subsidies and social protection, investment promotion, regional development and support for public education and health. However, while BN and PN explicitly endorse pro-Malay policies, PH refrains from a clear stance. The coalition advocates policies for all Malaysians, with implied help for the Malay community. Moreover, in Anwar’s cabinet, some key positions promoting Malay advancement are UMNO-led, notably the Ministry of Rural and Regional Development under Zahid’s watch.

PKR and DAP have differentiated themselves by championing reforms for decades, but the first PKR-led ruling coalition has, after nearly four years, fallen short of the promised clean, transparent and responsive government. DAP’s congress acutely acknowledged the disgruntlement in its base. Delegates overwhelmingly voted to remain in government but signalled that their patience with Anwar’s lethargic reforms is wearing grievously thin.

PH has up to 16 months to make good, before the current parliamentary term ends. The greater stakes of a general election could galvanise action, including on the PM term limit which will be re-tabled in Parliament. The upcoming federal budget will assuredly extend subsidies and social assistance and will likely provide relief for small and medium enterprises. The rakyat or people will judge whether Anwar’s proposed abolition of the Universities and University Colleges Act and allocation of MYR1 million for all parliamentary constituencies are adequate (albeit belated) responses, or the desperate and partial gestures of a flailing coalition. Ultimately, voters’ assessment of PH’s ability to go the whole nine yards on reform will determine whether PH would sink or float.

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