Sabah’s Ruling Coalition Navigates Treacherous Waters Ahead of Polls

As Sabah heads toward its much-anticipated state election, Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) finds itself caught in a perfect political storm. Beset by corruption charges and mounting pressure from federal allies, the ruling coalition is struggling to project internal cohesion while traversing a minefield of seat negotiations and intra- and inter-party rivalries.

In December 2024, a mining scandal rocked the GRS-led Sabah government when several of its leaders were implicated in a series of corruption allegations. Just as the coalition began to recover from the mining scandal, a second wave of allegations emerged, involving six high-profile GRS figures. Collectively, they were alleged to have received a total of RM3.9 million (US$930,000).

These twin scandals could potentially undermine GRS’s support among key voting blocs, especially urban voters, the Chinese electorate, and fence-sitters. Beyond these legal troubles, GRS is also contending with internal fragmentation. The coalition comprises a mosaic of local-based parties: Parti Gagasan Rakyat Sabah (Gagasan), Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS), Parti Solidariti Tanahairku (STAR), Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP), Parti Harapan Rakyat Sabah (PHRS), United Sabah National Organisation (USNO), the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), and Parti Cinta Sabah (PCS). This disparate group is held together more by political expediency than a shared ideological vision.

Gagasan, led by Chief Minister Hajiji Noor, and also the anchor party in GRS, currently holds 26 seats, followed by PBS (7), STAR (6), SAPP (1, nominated), and PHRS (1). The remaining parties lack legislative representation but continue to demand seats. Without clear seat distribution arrangements, rival factions within GRS may end up contesting against one another, splitting votes and handing an advantage to their opponents.

Seat negotiations within GRS are further complicated by overlapping discussions with its broader coalition partners Barisan Nasional (BN) and Pakatan Harapan (PH). While PH and BN have largely finalised their seat-sharing arrangements, talks between GRS and BN, particularly between Gagasan and United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), remain contentious. GRS argues it deserves to contest more seats than either PH or BN, not only because it is the leading local-based coalition but also to strengthen its long-term strategic positioning. GRS is expected to contest in more than 50 seats. This is not merely a symbolic assertion of dominance, but underscores its ambition to emulate Sarawak’s Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) and consolidate its stature in the eyes of the federal government.

The number of seats GRS secures will also directly impact its bargaining power with the governor in the appointment of the next chief minister. To avoid a repeat of the 2020 constitutional crisis and to solidify its legitimacy, GRS must aim for more than a simple majority — a convincing mandate that eliminates ambiguity over its right to govern. In 2020, a former chief minister had sought to form a state government without going through elections; he failed.

GRS stands at a crossroads, with its survival in the upcoming state election depending on three interlinked challenges: addressing corruption allegations head-on, resolving internal and external seat allocation disputes, and clarifying its electoral pact strategy with federal allies.

However, the overlapping claims in many Muslim-Bumiputera constituencies especially those previously won under the UMNO banner, have made negotiations with BN particularly fraught. If talks break down, Sabah could see three-way contests between Gagasan, UMNO, and Warisan, a Sabah-based opposition party led by former chief minister Shafie Apdal. This would increase the likelihood of vote-splitting that could benefit Warisan.

Another dilemma looms: should GRS contest the election independently as a Sabah-based coalition, or align with PH or BN — parties often viewed by GRS supporters as “outsiders”? Many within GRS argue that standing alone would allow the coalition to emulate GPS in Sarawak, whose independent status has afforded it greater leverage especially on matters related to the Malaysia Agreement 1963 (MA63).

At the joint STAR and PBS convention held on 12 July, chants of “solo, solo, solo” echoed throughout the halls as STAR president Jeffrey Kitingan and PBS acting president Joachim Gunsalam both called for GRS to contest the upcoming election independently. This pressure was further reinforced during the Gagasan annual general meeting (AGM) on 27 July, where chants of “rumah kita, kita jaga” (“let us take care of our own state”) reverberated throughout the hall.

Despite this groundswell of support for going solo, Hajiji announced shortly after the Gagasan AGM that GRS would work with PH, claiming the matter had been discussed with all component parties. However, some coalition leaders reportedly denied that any such consultation or formal discussion had taken place. The issue was temporarily resolved during the GRS Presidential Council meeting on 10 August, where it was agreed that GRS would partner with PH in the upcoming election, with seat negotiations to follow.

There is a dilemma here. If GRS proceeds with aligning itself with PH and BN, STAR may be the first to withdraw, possibly followed by other parties. Conversely, if GRS decides to go solo, it will face the formidable machinery of the federal government —backed by PH and BN — with access to greater institutional support, funding, and campaign infrastructure.

GRS stands at a crossroads, with its survival in the upcoming state election depending on three interlinked challenges: addressing corruption allegations head-on, resolving internal and external seat allocation disputes, and clarifying its electoral pact strategy with federal allies. For Hajiji, this moment represents a critical test of leadership: can he preserve unity without alienating key partners or will his balancing act trigger the very implosion the coalition is trying to avoid? If GRS fails to hold the line, it could fracture before a single vote is even cast.

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