Takeaways from SEACO2024: Rising Food Insecurity, Growing Concern for Climate Change’s Impacts

The annual Southeast Asia Climate Outlook Survey (SEACO2024), conducted between mid-July and mid-August 2024 shows some startling perceptions of food insecurity in the region. This fifth rendition of the survey recorded 2,931 responses from all ten ASEAN member countries. SEACO2024 included questions on food security for only the second time, but the data are sufficient to conduct some early analysis on food insecurity trajectories.

There are three key takeaways on climate change and food security. First, Southeast Asians generally feel more food insecure, and the capacity to pay does not guarantee food security. Food insecurity refers to the lack of regular access to enough safe and nutritious food for normal growth and an active and healthy life.   

The survey revealed that those experiencing food insecurity “sometimes”, “frequently” and “all the time” have risen in every category; 7 in 10 persons experience some form of food insecurity, up from 6 in 10 in last year’s survey (Figure 1). Notably, the percentage of respondents collectively experiencing food insecurity “all the time” and “sometimes”—corresponding to severe and moderate food insecurity—increased from 14.0 per cent to 19.8 per cent, or one in five.

For the second year running, respondents from the Philippines were the most likely to experience food insecurity, but the country with the highest proportion of respondents indicating food insecurity “all the time” was, notably, Brunei. Despite being considered a high income country, those reporting constant food insecurity increased from 6.9 per cent in 2023 to 9.7 per cent in 2024 (Figure 2). Brunei does not publish data on food insecurity, but its government may wish to start measuring this. More than 90 per cent of Brunei’s food is imported, and with a population numbering less than half a million it is less able to diversify its supply like Singapore, which has a population ten times of Brunei. Since 2020, Brunei has upped its efforts for self-sufficiency, including by inking partnerships with Singapore and Malaysia on agrifood.

Furthermore, food insecurity “all the time” seems to be experienced even by those classified as high-income  (3.6 per cent). This is only marginally lower than those in the middle-income (5.5 per cent) and low-income brackets (4.5 per cent).

Figure 1: Food insecurity experience, Southeast Asia overall

Figure 2: Food insecurity experience, ASEAN countries and by income levels

Second, most Southeast Asians regard the adverse impacts of climate change on food not as a future prospect but as a present reality.

El Nino, a phenomenon that recurs every few years, brought heatwaves and drought to Southeast Asia in 2023 to 2024, damaging agricultural output. Climate change does not cause El Nino, but exacerbates it, as evidenced by the latest being one of the top five strongest El Ninos recorded. Unsurprisingly, around 7 in 10 Southeast Asians identified prolonged drought and heat waves as factors reducing harvests and food availability. A large majority of SEACO2024 respondents (62.4 per cent) connected floods with the significant losses in food production and supply chains during the rare triple La Nina years of 2020-2023.

According to the survey, the Philippines and Myanmar experienced the most climate impacts on food in the region (Figure 3); both of these countries, along with Indonesia are listed in the top 10 countries experiencing the highest disaster risk, including climate risks, under the World Risk Index 2024. The majority of the respondents in the Philippines and Myanmar, and nearly half of the respondents from Vietnam, also highlight the adverse effects of storms and typhoons on food security. A recent study has found that storm paths in Southeast Asia have been impacted by climate change, forming nearer to coastlines and moving slower over land, thus posing heightened risks to the region. The recent super Typhoon Yagi, which has caused widespread destruction in the Philippines and Vietnam, is an example.

Figure 3: Perceived climate impacts on each of the ASEAN countries (respondents to check all that apply)

Third, concern over food insecurity due to climate change is growing, and there is a greater tendency to nurture home food gardens for food resilience.

Southeast Asians expect climate change to continue impacting food security. Between 2023 and 2024, the percentage of respondents who identified as “very concerned” that climate change will impact food rose from 28.1 per cent to 31.9 per cent, and the percentage of respondents who identified as “somewhat concerned” increased from 40.8 per cent to 41.6 per cent (Figure 4). 

Policymakers should ramp up policies to promote sustainable self-sufficiency, R&D in climate-resilient agriculture, improvements in agro-food systems infrastructure, and expansion of food welfare policies.

To cope, some residents are choosing to produce their own food. The proportion increased from 23.5 per cent in 2023 to 27.1 per cent in 2024, with Vietnam and Thailand respondents reporting the highest increase in residents growing their own food (Figure 5). This increase was observed among residents of all areas, whether metropolitan, mid-sized city, town or rural.

Figure 4: Concern about climate change’s impact on food availability and affordability in the next 3 years

Figure 5: Choosing to grow own food because of concern of climate impact on food availability

2023 was the first year-long breach of the 1.5^oC threshold. It resulted in 2023 being the hottest year on record, yet projections suggest this record may be broken again in 2024. The rising food insecurity across the region due to climate impacts is a clarion call for more robust food security adaptation measures that enhance food supply, distribution, and access.

Policymakers should ramp up actions to promote sustainable self-sufficiency, R&D in climate-resilient agriculture, improvements in agro-food systems infrastructure, and expansion of food welfare policies. On the latter, as food insecurity is hitting all income groups, food welfare policies should not be restricted to only low-income households. Many middle- and upper-income households may also require assistance to access food, whether in big cities or small.

Another way that policymakers can encourage food resilience is by facilitating decentralised food production in homes and communities. This requires opening community gardens and providing advisory services to new farmers to grow food. Farmers markets could also be set up to allow home and community gardens to sell their excess produce.

Lastly, Southeast Asians, whether as individuals or organisations in public or private sectors, should hasten mitigation measures to cut emissions by 43 per cent before 2030, to reverse the trend toward exceeding the 1.5^oC threshold. Otherwise, this crucial window will close, and food security in highly vulnerable Southeast Asia will continually deteriorate. 

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