Negeri Sembilan State Election: A Safe Bet for Anwar Administration?

As per Selangor and Penang, the combined Pakatan Harapan-Barisan Nasional team in Negeri Sembilan is expected to do well in the state. The more pressing question is whether UMNO will gain or lose traction in the state, and how that would portend for state cabinet positions within the combined PH-BN coalition.

With Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA) and Malaysian Indian Congress (MIC) staying out of the state election, the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) is contesting all the 17 seats allocated to Barisan Nasional (BN) with the remaining 19 contested by Pakatan Harapan (PH). Not coincidentally, all “non-Malay majority” seats (where Malay voters constitute less than 50 per cent of voters) are allocated to PH and all but one “Malay supermajority” (where Malay voters constitute greater than 75 per cent of all voters) are being contested by UMNO. PH and BN are both prevalent in seats where Malays form between 50 per cent to 75 per cent.

Negeri Sembilan is generally considered to be a safe ground for PH-BN. Firstly, in 2018 neither Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) – then under PH before it switched to Perikatan Nasional (PN) in 2020 – nor the Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS) won a single state seat in Negeri Sembilan. Without even one assemblyperson in the recently-dissolved Negeri Sembilan state assembly, PN lacks a credible narrative to serve as an effective state government given its very limited knowledge of the state’s development plans. In addition, PN lacks a well-oiled grassroots machinery in Negeri Sembilan since these networks and mechanisms are typically cultivated by state assemblypersons.

The voting patterns in November 2022 General Election also indicate that PN lacks credible support in Negeri Sembilan to defeat a combined PH-BN. Granted, not all supporters of BN and PH in 2022 would migrate to the new pact considering the decades long-animosity between the Democratic Action Party (DAP) and UMNO.

Negeri Sembilan is generally considered to be a safe ground for PH-BN…Without even one assemblyperson in the recently-dissolved Negeri Sembilan state assembly, PN lacks a credible narrative to serve as an effective state government given its very limited knowledge of the state’s development plans.

To gauge the possible performance of the Unity Government in Negri Sembilan, there are two scenarios of vote transferability. In the first (baseline) scenario, 30 per cent of BN voters will switch to PN while the remaining 70 per cent of BN voters in 2022 would support BN-PH in the upcoming state election. Since UMNO and PN share similar political ideologies regarding Malay rights and privileges, the broad compatibility eases the transition for disgruntled BN voters in switching to PN. In the same scenario, 95 per cent of PH voters would support BN-PH with the disgruntled 5 per cent abstaining from voting due to the irreconcilable ideological gulf between PH and PN. Based on the parliamentary results in November 2022 and divided up into individual state seats, there are only three seats which are too close to call — seats where PN could even stand a chance of scraping through and win with a razor-thin margin. The other 33 seats are projected to be won by BN-PH with comfortable margins. The three seats which PN may wrestle in scenario 1 are all Malay supermajority seats contested by UMNO.  Scenario 1 has a greater probability to occur compared to scenario 2.

Scenario 1: Pakatan-Barisan Wins Big?

Possible Outcome Based on GE 2022 Results

The map only serves as a broad reference point. In the real world the share of voters who migrate from BN to PN for individual seats would be higher or lower, with the stated 30 per cent being the state’s average level.

In the highly unlikely case of scenario 2, half of BN voters in 2022 would switch to PN while the remaining half would support BN-PH in the state election. 85 per cent of PH voters would support BN-PH with the 15 per cent abstaining from voting. Under such circumstances, PN would easily win four state seats at the expense of UMNO. In addition, another 13 seats be too close to call with the bulk of these being seats contested by UMNO. In other words, should PN make major inroads into Negeri Sembilan it would be come primarily at the expense of BN rather than PH.  Even then PN would still fall short of the 19 seats threshold to achieve simple majority and form the government.

Scenario 2: Perikatan Gets a Foothold?

Possible Outcome Based on GE 2022 Results

For PN, Negeri Sembilan represents a tough nut to crack unlike the East Coast Peninsular states where PN – specifically PAS – serves as the incumbent state government. Nonetheless, the state election would be a barometer on whether PN is able to make inroads into Negeri Sembilan and if so, to what extent. After all, any gains made in the upcoming state election would sow the seeds for the 16^th General Election.

A strong performance for UMNO and PH – the core members of the federal unity government – in Negeri Sembilan would provide impetus for closer collaboration at both the state and national level. Anthony Loke, the top gun in the Democratic Action Party (DAP), and UMNO’s second in command Mohamad Hasan are both contesting in Negeri Sembilan. Both politicians are acutely aware that their respective parties’ performance in Negeri Sembilan would affect their influence in federal politics.

Significant changes to the state government is also expected even if BN-PH prevails in the polls. The PH-BN unity pact was inked only in the aftermath of last November’s General Election and UMNO has been left out of the outgoing Negeri Sembilan state cabinet. In the event that UMNO performs spectacularly (say, a clean sweep of the 17 seats it is contesting), the party might ask for five out of the eleven state cabinet positions. Currently, DAP, PKR and Amanah each has 5, 4 and 2 state cabinet positions respectively. The price of accommodating UMNO could aggravate tensions within PH component members.

Conversely, if the opposition Perikatan Nasional (PN) makes headway into seats previously held by Barisan Nasional, this would weaken UMNO’s post-election bargaining power. That said, PH would have to deal with a resurgent PN. Neither option is attractive for PH. In short, Negeri Sembilan remains a safe bet for Anwar’s Unity Government, but how precisely the dice roll out would have significant ramifications.

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