Trump Administration’s International Student Curbs Risk Undermining US Soft Power

In 2001, then US Secretary of State Colin Powell said, “I can think of no more valuable asset to our country than the friendship of future world leaders who have been educated here.”  This vision is now under threat. US President Donald Trump has directed US embassies to suspend student visa appointments and more deeply vet the social media profiles of applicants, signalling a chilling move away from US openness to international academic engagement. Such actions not only undermine student mobility but also erode the soft power that America has long cultivated through its international education programmes.

Coined by American political scientist Joseph Nye, the term “soft power” refers to the ability of a country to influence others through attraction rather than coercion. A key mechanism for developing such attraction is the dissemination of a country’s culture, values, and ideas in ways that generate goodwill. Education, in particular, has served as a powerful vehicle in advancing US soft power by offering international students direct exposure to American ideals and values. US educational institutions not only promote people-to-people exchange but also serve as crucial platforms to positively influence the perspectives of future foreign leaders and professionals.

In the context of Southeast Asia, education has consistently served as a vital pillar of the US’ regional engagement strategy. Between 2015 and 2022, the US extended approximately US$796 million in financial assistance to Southeast Asian countries, far exceeding China’s US$247 million during the same period (Figure 1). Since the 1990s — and with notable acceleration in the 2000s — the US has launched numerous scholarship-supported international student programmes aimed at deepening ties with the region and its people.

Figure 1. Comparison of US and Chinese Financial Aid to Southeast Asian Countries (Education Sector), 2015–2022 (US$ million)

Through these financial grants and initiatives, there has been a stable and consistent number of students from Southeast Asia choosing to study in the US. From 2015 to 2022, Indonesia, Vietnam, Singapore, and Brunei maintained stable student outflows to the US (Figure 2), while the Philippines, Myanmar, Laos, and Cambodia recorded nearly double the growth in student numbers studying in the US (Table 1).

Figure 2. Total Number of Southeast Asian International Students in the US (2015–2023)

Table 1. Total Number of International Students in the US from the Philippines, Myanmar, Cambodia, and Laos (2015–2023)

	Philippines	Myanmar	Cambodia	Laos
2015	2,886	1,194	499	63
2016	3,006	1,351	512	91
2017	3,225	1,569	659	104
2018	3,320	1,773	685	96
2019	3,295	1,828	742	131
2020	2,907	1,698	848	113
2021	3,278	1,909	875	101
2022	3,818	NA	1,060	107
2023	4,100	NA	997	114

Nevertheless, the Trump administration’s increasingly restrictive border and immigration policies threaten to stall the momentum of Southeast Asian student enrolment in its educational institutions. Concerns over visa rejections, deportations, and sudden policy changes have contributed to a climate of fear and a growing sense of insecurity among Southeast Asian students who wish to pursue education in the US. If such trends persist, they will not only undermine the US image as a welcoming education hub but also jeopardise the substantial progress Washington has made over the years in fostering cross-border academic mobility, mutual trust, and regional goodwill through its educational initiatives and financial grants.

The fear and uncertainty arising from the growing restrictions on foreign students are likely to have been compounded by alarming political shifts within the US. Attempts to dismantle the Department of Education, along with significant cuts to federal funding and research grants for various educational institutions, threaten to dismantle academic freedom and institutional autonomy. Universities such as Harvard and Columbia — long revered as bastions of intellectual inquiry and academic excellence — now face political pressure and shrinking budgets. This regression sends a chilling message to prospective international students, who may reconsider the US as a viable destination for open and rigorous intellectual engagement.

Concerns over visa rejections, deportations, and sudden policy changes have contributed to a climate of fear and growing sense of insecurity among Southeast Asian students who wish to pursue education in the US.

The shift in the US opens new avenues for countries like China to attract more international students from Southeast Asia. In recent years, China has actively leveraged cooperation in education as a key instrument of its cultural diplomacy towards the region. At the opening ceremony of China-ASEAN Education Cooperation Week (CAECW) 2024, then Vice Minister of Education He Guangcai reaffirmed China’s commitment to enhancing educational cooperation with Southeast Asia, including through initiatives such as the ASEAN-China Young Leaders Scholarship and China/AUN scholarship to increase the inflow of Southeast Asian students. Additionally, China seeks not only to bring Southeast Asian students to China but also to bring China to them. Chinese universities have begun establishing campuses in the region, such as the Xiamen University campus in Malaysia, Soochow University campus in Laos, and Tsinghua Southeast Asia Center in Indonesia.

With China increasingly targeted by US visa restrictions, the already declining number of Chinese students heading to America will drop even faster (Figure 3). While the US came to an agreement with China on 11 June for Chinese “students using [US] colleges and universities” — reversing its stance on “aggressively” revoking their visas just two weeks earlier — the ongoing ambiguity and inconsistency are unlikely to have alleviated the concerns of Chinese students. Consequently, more could turn to Southeast Asia, drawn by affordable tuition, lower cost of living, relaxed visa policies, and cultural similarities. An increasing number of Chinese students are finding opportunities in alternative destinations like Singapore and Malaysia. The visibility of Chinese international students in the region could help enrich people-to-people ties and gradually soften China’s international image at a time when the US becomes more exclusionary and its international appeal wanes.

Figure 3. Declining Number of Chinese International Students in the US (2015–2023)

The decline of foreign education opportunities in the US carries implications far beyond the academic sphere; it is a strategic misstep with profound diplomatic repercussions. Education has long been the most effective instrument of people-to-people exchange between the US and Southeast Asian countries. Revitalising these channels is imperative — not just for educational enrichment, but for rebuilding trust and restoring the US’ standing as a beacon of openness and a welcoming hub for global talent.

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