A Double Blow to Thaksin Signals the End of His Political Dynasty

Thailand’s jailed former Prime Minister (PM) Thaksin Shinawatra, 76, has been unexpectedly dealt a double blow that threatens to dash his hope for an early release under parole and scuttle his plan to revive his embattled Pheu Thai (PT) Party to contest in the upcoming general election (GE), which is likely to be held early next year. 

In the worst-case scenario, Thaksin’s political dynasty will come to an inglorious end. 

First, the Attorney General (AG) Itthiporn Kaewthip revealed on 17 November morning his decision to appeal against Thaksin’s acquittal for a lèse-majesté charge. 

Just a few hours later, the Thai Supreme Court ruled that Thaksin must pay about 17,600 million baht (US$543 million) of income tax and fines for late payment arising from a controversial sale in early 2006 to Singapore’s Temasek Holdings of 49 per cent of shares in his Shin Corp, then the largest mobile phone service corporation in Thailand. 

Later that day, his lawyer decried on Facebook what he described as “a movement” with a “shameful” vendetta against the two-time Thai premier. Thaksin’s lawyer was surprised by the AG’s decision because an informal working group Itthiporn headed when he was a deputy attorney general had earlier recommended against appealing Thaksin’s acquittal. (Itthiporn became AG only on 1 October.) 

However, legal experts say that it is within the AG’s authority to decide whether to proceed with the appeal even though he had heard the working group’s argument to drop the case. The working group reportedly voted eight to two in favour of ending the case, while Itthiporn abstained. The appeal will undoubtedly trouble Thaksin for a few more months, or longer if the case goes to the Supreme Court. If found guilty, Thaksin shall face a jail term ranging from three to 15 years. 

Thaksin’s immediate concern is that the lingering lèse-majesté charge may disqualify him from seeking parole, which he can technically do after serving four months of his one-year jail term, by 9 January 2026. (Convicts with pending criminal court cases are normally excluded from parole consideration because they are flight risks.)

If Thaksin remains in jail, he will not be able to actively support PT or stop its members of Parliament (MP) from defecting to major parties in the coalition government of PM Anutin Charnvirakul, notably Anutin’s Bhumjaithai (BJT) Party and the Kla Tham Party of Deputy Prime Minister Captain Thammanat Prompao (concurrently minister of agriculture). 

PT needs all the help it can get from Thaksin, who is still widely respected as the party’s “spiritual leader”.

Yet PT’s popularity has been declining, particularly in its traditional strongholds in the Northeast and the North, since the disqualification on 29 August of its leader, Thaksin’s youngest daughter and former premier Paetongtarn, from the premiership. PT trailed the People’s Party in popularity in both these regions, while in the Central Region (excluding Bangkok), PT was fourth, behind the People’s Party, BJT, and the Democrat Party.

In the worst-case scenario, Thaksin’s political dynasty will come to an inglorious end.

PT’s popularity in Bangkok and in the South is usually lower than in the rest of the country. In the 2023 GE, PT won only one constituency in Bangkok; Move Forward, the predecessor party of the People’s Party, won 32 of the 33 constituencies. In the South’s 60 constituencies, PT was completely washed out. 

Paetongtarn’s successor is Julapun Amornvivat, 50, a five-time MP of Chiang Mai, Thaksin’s home province, but Julapun needs more time to develop greater name recognition. He came sixth in a NIDA Poll in the North, conducted between 30 October and 4 November, on who should be the next PM.

This being the case, PT’s prospects of coming first in the next GE are poor, especially without Thaksin’s active support. Most probably, PT will be beaten by either People’s Party or BJT, or both.

Moreover, the huge tax bill will create a new handicap for Thaksin financially. It was a surprise because a tax court and a court of appeal had earlier ruled on technicalities that he need not pay any taxes from the sale of Shin Corp shares by his two children in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (there is no tax on sales of shares or capital gains in Thailand). However, the Supreme Court ruled against Thaksin, faulting him for tax avoidance in his scheme of complicated share transfers through his shell company and his children. 

Thaksin will soon be served a court order to pay the tax, which will hurt his liquidity, even though Forbes Thailand estimated his net worth at US$2.1 billion and ranked him the 11th richest Thai in 2025.

If financial support for Thaksin is not forthcoming, more MPs of PT will be tempted by offers they cannot refuse from the well-funded parties BJT and Kla Tham to jump ship. Joining either party can improve the winning chances for enterprising politicians who want to be part of the next government.

BJT and Kla Tham are enjoying the advantage of incumbency and have the potential to have more MPs from the next GE. They can probably form the core of the next coalition government, from which they will most likely exclude PT.

All in all, the double blow to Thaksin can be taken as a sign that he has no new secret deal with any powers-that-be to return as a political playmaker. Therefore, it is safe to assume that Thaksin’s political dynasty is coming to an inglorious end after a run of 25 years, during which Thaksin and his five nominees: Samak Sundaravej; Somchai Wongsawat, his brother-in-law; Yingluck, his youngest sister; Srettha Thavisin; and his youngest daughter were all Thai premiers. 

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