Abhisit’s Clean Politics Faces Formidable Odds in Thailand’s Cut-Throat Political Arena

Former Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva’s return to lead the Democrat Party (DP) on 18 October seems like a breath of fresh air for the oldest party in Thailand. But it is not clear whether his style of principled politics will be a hindrance or an advantage to the party. Moreover, with the next general election being just a few months away, the party is still hobbled by the lack of experienced candidates in an increasingly crowded political arena.

Competition is intensifying among major, well-funded parties to beef up their rosters of potential candidates. MPs who have great potential of winning re-election in their constituencies now command a minimum “transfer fee” of 30 million baht (US$923,000) each to switch parties. The transfer fee usually comes in the guise of a promise of campaign funds. Since Thailand’s campaign spending is limited to 7 million baht per candidate, every enterprising MP who jumps ship can pocket the rest of the transfer fee. Well-known “Grade A” MPs reportedly command more than 80 million baht (US$2.46 million) each.

Some of DP’s 22 constituency MPs have indicated that they would soon leave to join either Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul’s Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) or Kla Tham, led by Agriculture Minister Captain Thammanat Prompao. These two government parties have good prospects of winning more seats in the House of Representatives at the next general election and forming the core of a new government coalition.

To DP’s potential defectors, Abhisit’s style of clean politics is a serious hindrance to joining any potential ruling coalition after the next general election. They will recall that following the 2019 general election, Abhisit, who had strongly opposed General Prayut Chan-o-cha’s return to the premiership, stepped down as party leader and even relinquished his position as MP after a majority of DP’s MPs and executive members voted to join a coalition led by Palang Pracharat Party and to endorse Prayut for prime minister.

Abhisit is quite sanguine about his prospects this time, though he faces daunting challenges. The 61-year-old Oxford graduate believes he has something different and hopeful to offer voters who are fed up with money politics.

The basis of his optimism, Abhisit revealed in his acceptance speech, has been enshrined in the party’s 10-point manifesto since 6 April 1946, when the founders of the party registered its establishment.

Certainly, at least three points from the manifesto will appeal to sophisticated voters in Bangkok and urban areas: pursuing a “political path of pure goodness” (implying the pursuit of clean politics and anti-corruption), upholding honesty to the people, and opposing all forms of dictatorship.

Abhisit believes that by pursuing clean politics, DP can regain its long-cherished reputation as an institutionalised party, not a fly-by-night one that comes and goes with leadership changes.

The 61-year-old Oxford graduate believes he has something different and hopeful to offer voters who are fed up with money politics.

Unfortunately, time is not on his side.

The next general election could be held before the end of January 2026. Prime Minister Anutin could dissolve the House before it reopens on 12 December to pre-empt a possible no-confidence motion, which the Pheu Thai Party is likely to submit during the next parliamentary session. Once such a motion is filed and accepted, Anutin cannot dissolve the House until the grilling and no-confidence voting are over.

Abhisit has little time to convince the Thai electorate that he can make a difference. Neither will he have much time to recruit decent candidates to contest meaningfully in all 400 constituencies.

In the 2023 general election, DP did field 400 constituency candidates, but only 22 won. For the 100 party-list House seats, which are filled based on the proportion of votes each party wins, DP received 925,349 votes, or 2.74 per cent, allowing it only 3 seats. These three seats have been held by three former DP leaders, Chuan Leekpai, Banyat Bantadtarn, and Jurin Laksanavisit, who have expressed support for Abhisit’s return.

In the next general election, Abhisit and DP’s best bet will be in Bangkok and in the South.

Bangkok used to be a stronghold of DP because Bangkok voters supported the party’s firm stand against military dictatorship. It was in Bangkok that Abhisit first won a House seat in 1992, becoming Thailand’s youngest elected MP at age 27.

However, Bangkok voters now have a new favourite: Future Forward Party (dissolved in February 2020) and Move Forward Party (dissolved in August 2023), the two predecessor parties of the People’s Party (PP). In the 2023 general election, Move Forward swept 32 out of Bangkok’s 33 House seats, leaving only one to Pheu Thai. DP was washed out in Bangkok again, just like in the 2019 general election.

In the South, another area where anti-military dictatorship sentiments have been strong, DP used to win most, if not all, of the House seats in all 14 southern provinces. But its dominance has been eroding because of growing competition from other parties. In the 2019 general election, DP won only 22 of 50 House seats in the South. In the 2023 general election, DP slipped further, winning only 17 of 60 seats.

In the third quarter survey done by NIDA Poll, 27.28 per cent of the 2,500 respondents considered no one suitable for the premiership, edging out the 22.80 per cent who picked Natthaphong Ruangpanyawut, leader of the opposition and of PP, and the 20.44 per cent who favoured BJT leader Anutin.

This outcome appears to suggest that at least one-fourth of voters are still waiting for a more suitable political leader to emerge.

Abhisit might fit the bill.

But his party needs to meet the constitutionally mandated threshold of winning at least 5 per cent of the 500 House seats for him to be in the race for the premiership after the next general election.

It will be an uphill battle.

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