Anwar’s Unity Government: Striding Forward or Just Moonwalking?

Over the past weeks, Anwar Ibrahim, Prime Minister and leader of the Unity Government has had his work cut out for him. Gone are the times when Malaysia’s prime minister swept to power at the head of one coalition and then, after a four-year interval, would plan for the next election. Now, power must be obtained and diligently retained.

Last November’s parliamentary election saw Anwar clinch power in a dramatic denouement. While his Unity Government initially commanded a two-thirds majority in parliament, Anwar’s position was not greatly different from that of his two immediate predecessors, Muhyiddin Yassin and Ismail Sabri. Their parliamentary majorities were all secured, not by a single coalition, but by cobbling various coteries into an ostensibly cohesive confederation. Thus, the Unity Government has important internal cleavages, not least between Anwar’s Pakatan Harapan (PH) and its former foe Barisan Nasional (BN), but also between coalitions from East and West Malaysia, respectively.

Another feature of Malaysia’s current political context is that state governments now hold their elections in bunches, rather than concurrently with parliamentary elections. The timing of six state polls a mere nine months after the federal election entailed an unusually early reckoning for the new, sprawling coalition of coalitions. Of keen interest has been the viability and desirability of PH’s pragmatic pact with BN, the grouping helmed by the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO).

This partnership was put to the test on 12 August, when the PH-led Selangor, Negri Sembilan, and Penang held state assembly elections, as did the opposition Perikatan Nasional-led Kedah, Kelantan, and Terengganu. The status quo prevailed, with each coalition retaining three states, including — crucially for Anwar — PH’s politically and economically vital Selangor.

This was followed up by another electoral joust in Johor on 9 September, in the parliamentary and state seats previously held by the late Domestic Trade and Cost of Living minister, Salahuddin Ayub. During the campaign, PN added new tunes to its playlist, alleging that PH would seek to use its two-thirds parliamentary majority to create new constituencies in urban areas, whilst simultaneously predicting the Unity Government’s imminent demise. The by-elections also took place amidst a sustained chorus of criticism against the unexpected end to UMNO president Zahid Hamidi’s legal travails.

The Unity Government fought hard and ultimately prevailed in both seats. In so doing, it has effectively silenced PN. There is another by-election on the horizon, this time in Pelangai in Pahang. However, this is a state and not a parliamentary seat, and the Unity Government’s control of the state is not at stake.

Consequently, it is likely that the Unity Government will not yet go gently into that good night. PN parliamentarians will have to accept life in the opposition, and the Malaysian public will have to get used to the PH-BN tie-up. With this out of the way, the federal government can now busy itself publishing a plethora of plans for public perusal.

However, upon closer inspection, rather than stepping forward, Anwar and his administration are moonwalking — seemingly pacing ahead whilst actually sliding backwards.

Anwar and the Unity Government have survived the recent electoral examinations, albeit with substantial attrition. In the weeks ahead, the Prime Minister will have to work hard to ensure that the next steps take him forward rather than back.

PH-BN’s electoral victories actually entail important reversals. The August state elections revealed important declines in support for the Unity Government in Malay-majority seats. The bulk of Malay voters threw their support behind PN, and the much-vaunted transfer of votes between PH and BN supporters did not occur in significant measure. In the north, the Unity Government was all but wiped out, retaining a mere three seats in Kedah, two in Kelantan, and not a single seat in Terengganu. The Unity Government also experienced serious reversals in its states, losing its two-thirds majority in Selangor and much of Penang mainland, as well as eroding support in heartland FELDA seats in Negri Sembilan.

The by-elections in Johor reveal much the same pattern, with the result for the Pulai parliamentary seat particularly telling. In November 2022, 31,726 voters opted for the UMNO candidate and 64,900 supported PH. However, on September 9, only 48,283 voters opted for the Unity Government candidate — indicating little transfer of support from UMNO and decreased turnout from PH voters. Conversely, votes for PN surged 43 per cent across the two elections, from 20,677 to 29,642.

Anwar’s administration has been hit by an additional setback. Last week, the Malaysian United Democratic Alliance (MUDA), a PH-friendly single-seat party, withdrew from the Unity Government. Its president and MP for Muar, Syed Saddiq stated that he and his party “cannot tolerate” the discharge of the corruption case by the Attorney-General, saying that it underscored the “normalisation of corruption”.

With 147 seats in the 222-member parliament, Anwar’s umbrella coalition is still secure. However, the two-thirds majority is an operationally and psychologically important threshold. It is necessary to amend the Constitution, as well as increase the number of parliamentary seats when the next delineation exercise takes place, possibly in 2026. While support for specific measures can still be secured by appealing across party lines, this is no longer something that he can decide alone.

Anwar and the Unity Government have survived the recent electoral examinations, albeit with substantial attrition. In the weeks ahead, the Prime Minister will have to work hard to ensure that the next steps take him forward rather than back.

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