Why Sarawak’s Abang Johari Cannot Afford to Slip Up

In the wake of the recent state elections in Johor and Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia’s political class is looking ahead to the upcoming Malacca polls. The ruling Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition suffered two defeats in the Johor and Negeri Sembilan state polls. This has rattled Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, who has weighed a snap federal election as early as October and is now said to be eyeing a delay to the second half of 2027.

The situation is different in Sarawak, where Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) governs with near-total control. The coalition holds 79 of 82 state assembly seats and 23 of Sarawak’s 31 parliamentary seats. Its performance in the upcoming state polls will determine the influence it wields in a federal governing coalition after the next general elections.

Sarawak’s state assembly is due to dissolve by February 2027. Abang Johari, Premier of Sarawak and Chairman of the GPS coalition, could call an early election after the assembly’s final sitting in October. This means that the polls would not be held during the 2027 Chinese New Year and the subsequent fasting month in February.

The GPS is made up of four component parties, which were previously part of the Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition. In the wake of the 2022 General Election, GPS joined Anwar’s PH coalition in the federal government. At the state level, however, GPS component parties compete with PH-aligned parties such as the Democratic Action Party (DAP).

The general perception is that politics in Peninsular Malaysia does not affect the Borneo states. The states operate under distinct political dynamics, with Sarawakian voters driven more by local concerns than developments across the South China Sea.

But this perception is only partially correct. While issues in Peninsular Malaysia may not affect voters in Sarawak, political developments there still shape how Sarawak’s leaders position themselves and how they choose to realign. These decisions depend on their assessment of which coalition is likely to hold power at the federal level.

The Johor and Negeri Sembilan results make clear that PH’s grip on federal power is loosening. This has implications for Anwar’s standing within the Unity Government and PH’s prospects at the next general election. For Abang Johari, this is a signal that any recalibration of Sarawak’s federal alignment is better made now than later.

Even with victory assured, Abang Johari still needs to demonstrate that his influence over state politics remains unchallenged. This is against the backdrop of growing uncertainty in Peninsular Malaysia and political undercurrents at home.

The Johor and Negeri Sembilan results make clear that PH’s grip on federal power is loosening. This has implications for Anwar’s standing within the Unity Government and PH’s prospects at the next general election.

For many following Sarawak’s politics since the rise of GPS in 2018, the upcoming state election is regarded as little more than a formality, since it is almost a foregone conclusion that GPS will win.

Internally, the election is a test of whether GPS can retain its supermajority of 79 of 82 seats. GPS is expected to return to power with a two-thirds majority; but the pertinent question is not whether GPS wins, but by how much. Should its tally fall short of the 79 seats it currently holds, GPS’s detractors will pounce on the shortfall to argue that its influence in Sarawak is diminishing. This would not imperil Abang Johari’s leadership, given that GPS’s dominance is too entrenched to threaten his hold on power. It would, however, dent the aura of invincibility he has cultivated, and hand critics a symbolic opening at a time when GPS wants to project unchallenged strength.

Externally, it is important for GPS to demonstrate that it retains the influence and dominance needed to remain an indispensable player in federal politics. This is built on the coalition’s hold over 23 of Sarawak’s 31 parliamentary seats, making it the third largest bloc in Anwar’s Unity Government. If GPS can sweep the remaining eight seats, GPS’s leverage over the next federal government could grow further still, in a 222-seat parliament where no single coalition commands a majority on its own.

The coming state election might still be a walk in the park for GPS, much like its performance in the 2021 state elections. In fact, a push to consolidate its influence in opposition-held areas is not too far-fetched. That opportunity, however, is modest rather than sweeping. DAP holds a pair of seats in the urban Kuching area. There, the party has for decades held off challenges by GPS’s Sarawak United People’s Party (SUPP). Any gain here would be symbolic more than substantive.

But there are two main challenges confronting Abang Johari as he aims for total victory. First, the opposition has sought to push Dayakism, a movement where indigenous people seek to claim their rightful place in a state where they form the demographic majority. Parti Bansa Dayak Sarawak (PBDS), the most historically resonant Dayak-based party operating outside GPS, is at the forefront of this movement.

The second challenge is the friction between the two GPS component parties, SUPP and the Progressive Democratic Party (PDP). This has escalated into open warfare. At its core, the dispute is not merely a squabble over community leadership appointments. It is a contest for control over party machinery and grassroots support, since seat allocation within the coalition hinges on ground-level strength rather than mere entitlement. PDP has accused SUPP of installing SUPP-aligned community leaders as tuai rumah (longhouse chiefs) in Dudong and Bawang Assan. These are longhouse areas which PDP considers part of its patronage network.

PH’s seat losses in Johor and Negeri Sembilan should serve as a wake-up call for GPS to shore up its local support and reposition itself as the indispensable partner in the formation of the next federal government. This is why it is critical for GPS to either hold its current margin or expand into opposition-held areas. Engineering a sweeping victory in the Sarawak state elections would enable GPS to get a seat at the table in talks to form the next federal government.

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