ASEAN-EU Partnership Remains Vital to Sustain Multilateralism in A Shifting Global Order

ASEAN and the EU ministers are slated to convene in Brussels on 2 February 2024 for the 24^th ASEAN-EU Ministerial Meeting. This meeting carries heightened significance amid unprecedented geostrategic challenges and complex conflict unseen in the past. Observers worldwide are anticipating how these two prominent regional organisations can collaborate to address global and regional crises while upholding the multilateral global order.

Chaired by EU High Representative Josep Borrell and the Philippines Secretary of Foreign Affairs Enrique Manalo (serving as Country Coordinator for ASEAN-EU Dialogue Relations), the meeting is expected to further enhance the ASEAN-EU Strategic Partnership and would allow both regions to exchange views on regional and international issues, including recent developments in the Middle East.

At the ASEAN-EU Commemorative Summit held in December 2022 and over the past 47 years of relations, both regions have consistently reaffirmed the importance of strengthening the rules-based multilateral system which they believe has been key in the promotion of peace and stability post-World War II. Shared values and principles such as the rules-based international order, effective and sustainable multilateralism, as well as free and fair trade remain the foundation of the relationship and key premise for the ASEAN-EU Strategic Partnership.

However, events today have shown that multilateralism might be eroding as states pursue nationalism and protectionism, especially in crisis situations – including within both regions. This is exemplified by instances such as vaccine nationalism during the COVID-19 pandemic, critical mineral and food protectionism in Southeast Asia and the EU, and the rejection of the UN Global Compact for Migration by nine EU members.

Multilateralism is also being threatened within the two regional organisations as they struggle to maintain their unity when members are split over divisive issues such as the war in Gaza. Within ASEAN, forging a common position for a joint statement on the conflict has not been an easy task due to the divergent positions among member states. The gap between the Muslim-majority countries and those which recognise or have stronger ties with Israel is a particularly tricky divide. Similarly, the EU member states are at odds with each other, exposing a deep division within the organisation on policy towards Israel and Palestine. Even on the issue of demanding a ceasefire, EU member states had issues reaching a consensus on the wording of the resolution. The Joint Ministerial Statement expected after the meeting is likely to encounter tough negotiation on wording and content.

The rise of exclusive minilateral groupings in the Indo-Pacific, such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), the trilateral security partnership between Australia, the UK and the US (AUKUS), and other trilaterals reflects a global trend for states to hedge their bets on diverse groupings in pursuit of national interest, further eroding multilateralism.

Considering these challenges, ASEAN and the EU will need to intensify efforts in preserving the hard-fought multilateral order. The ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific and the EU Strategy for Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific will help to guide these efforts and foster strategic alignment within their respective regional architectures. The complementarities between both documents afford both organisations to work closely together in addressing common challenges, building trust, setting standards, and promoting good regulatory practices in Southeast Asia. The upcoming Third EU Indo-Pacific Ministerial Forum in Brussels — where most ASEAN foreign ministers are expected — will be another opportunity to help shape a collective vision for both regions.

The Ministerial meeting is expected to underscore the importance of a non-discriminatory, open, and transparent multilateral trading system, emphasising the need for reform within the World Trade Organisation (WTO). Advocacy for renewable energies in advancing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and collaboration on climate change through the ASEAN-EU Ministerial Dialogue on Environment and Climate Change (which started last year) will be key discussion items at the meeting, as the two organisations seek to promote multilateral agenda items.  

Looking ahead, ASEAN and the EU should explore multilateral rules for technology cooperation, particularly in regulating artificial intelligence (AI). The rapid rise of AI and its potential risks mean that there is an urgency to prioritise the governance of AI. The impending adoption of the EU AI Act can serve as a useful reference for ASEAN to align its strategy with international standards and good regulatory principles. Correspondingly, ASEAN’s voluntary ‘guide to AI ethics and governance’, which will be finalised early this year, could serve as a reference for the EU to understand this region’s dynamics.

Apart from practical cooperation, the EU as a Strategic Partner of ASEAN has the potential to play a more strategic role in the Indo-Pacific, especially amid the escalating China-US competition. Southeast Asia increasingly recognises that the EU’s “middle path” approach is helpful. In the State of Southeast Asia 2023 Survey, the EU is the regional respondents’ most preferred and trusted strategic partner in hedging against the uncertainties of the US-China strategic rivalry. This slightly increased from 40.2 per cent in 2022 to 42.9 per cent in 2023. In the same survey, the EU was the region’s second choice (after the US) for maintaining a rules-based order and upholding international law — a substantial increase from 16.6 per cent in 2022’s survey to 23 per cent in 2023.

The 2023 survey noted that the region’s positive view towards the EU was largely attributed to EU leadership in championing human rights and climate change, which is considered an asset for global peace and security. Fifty-one per cent of respondents chose the EU as Southeast Asia’s third most trusted power after Japan (first, at 54.5 per cent) and the US (second, at 54.2 per cent).

Recognising the EU’s relatively neutral nature, ASEAN can benefit from its role in preventing the region from wholly aligning with either the US or China, particularly in technology supply chains. The best response to the rise of China and its deepening rivalry with the US would be for ASEAN and the EU to confront the challenges within the multilateral system and to update regulations to keep pace with existing or new developments.

As the world faces increasing challenges, strengthening ASEAN-EU relations as natural partners in integration would be paramount. The upcoming meeting will provide another opportunity for the two sides to bolster the multilateral order by exploring new possibilities. Despite frictions between some ASEAN countries and the EU over trade and values, ASEAN should recognise the EU’s potential strategic contribution to stability and peace, and to consider its membership in all ASEAN-led mechanisms to jointly sustain multilateralism.

---

Editor’s Note:
ASEANFocus+ articles are timely critical insight pieces published by the ASEAN Studies Centre.