Reading ASEAN’s Sentiments in a Year of Crosswinds

Two complementary surveys in 2025 offer a synchronised read on Southeast Asia’s confidence at a time of transition. UOB’s ASEAN Consumer Sentiment Study (ACSS) 2025, conducted from May to June this year in partnership with global management consulting firm Boston Consulting Group, captures how consumers in Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam perceive the economy, their own financial position and their spending behaviours and intentions. The ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute’s State of Southeast Asia (SSEA) 2025 survey, by contrast, takes the region’s pulse from the top down: opinion leaders and thought leaders across all ASEAN countries assess regional priorities, strategic developments and major-power dynamics. Read together, these surveys draw the same contour lines from different vantage points. The region’s macro story remains one of resilience. Yet confidence is uneven and highly sensitive to external factors—particularly inflation, climate shocks and the evolving postures of the two biggest global powerhouses, the United States and China.

Both datasets converge on three themes. First, inflation and the cost of living are front-of-mind. ACSS respondents identify price pressures and rising cost of living as their dominant concerns (see Figure A). In the SSEA survey, “unemployment and economic recession” emerged as the second-ranked regional challenge (See Figure B). Regional economic confidence, already weighed down by weaker growth prospects, appears to be compounded by the stress of rising prices. Both survey results point to a more challenging economic outlook.

Figure A: Top concerns across ASEAN (UOB)

Second, climate has moved firmly into the mainstream of regional concerns. In the ACSS, environmental issues—climate change, natural disasters and pollution—is ranked second after financial worries, with particularly high concern in Indonesia and Vietnam. The SSEA likewise places climate change and extreme weather as the region’s top strategic challenge for the first time, reflecting a growing recognition that environmental disruption now shapes economic and social stability as much as traditional security issues.

Figure B: What are the top three challenges facing Southeast Asia? (ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute)

Third, friction among major powers has become an economic reality. The SSEA flags growing economic tensions between major powers as a key concern for Southeast Asian policymakers, while ACSS finds consumers are worried about US tariffs and shifting trade policies. The overlap highlights how the region’s macro-geopolitical risks are now being felt at the microeconomic level—where policy uncertainty translates directly into business confidence, job security and consumer spending.

Amid these conditions, the region remains resilient, though confidence is uneven. ACSS 2025 summarises public confidence toward their countries’ current and future economic conditions and their personal finances in the ACSS Index. The Index shows a slight rise in overall consumer sentiment from last year, and more than half of consumers are positive about their country’s economic, political and social stability despite slowing global growth. This is consistent with the broader UOB 2025–26 outlook: supply chains continue to shift toward Southeast Asia, investment and service activities remain strong, and domestic demand is holding up in several markets. According to the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research office (AMRO), the ASEAN+3 region is projected to grow about 4.1 per cent in 2025, defying expectations despite lingering trade-war risks and tariff uncertainties. Even so, country experiences differ.

At the country level, Vietnam leads the ACSS Index, powered by buoyant macro expectations and strong export-manufacturing momentum despite higher tariffs (see Figure C). Indonesia remains steady, its large domestic market and relatively lower trade exposure cushion it from global volatility. Malaysia posts the biggest rebound according to the ACSS 2025, with improved views of the national economic environment and less anxiety over household expenses compared to a year ago.

*** Singapore and Thailand score lower in the study, but for different reasons. In Thailand, the macro-outlook remains the weakest in the region even though households are more neutral about their own finances. In Singapore, optimism about the overall economy fell sharply, and confidence in personal finances also declined slightly. Together, these five countries offer a clear lesson: expectations hold up better where domestic demand is sizable and diversified enough to support the overall economy. However, in economies that are more exposed to global volatility—such as Singapore and Thailand (with its exports and tourism dependencies)—or where growth momentum has slowed, as in Malaysia and Thailand, confidence tends to weaken more quickly.

Figure C: ACSS Index score across ASEAN (UOB)

Singapore is structurally more sensitive than most ASEAN economies. Its small size and high trade exposure mean that external shocks are felt quickly across the domestic economy, while elevated living costs potentially amplify consumer anxiety. The SSEA also shows Singaporeans more cautious about shifting US policies and their implications for a rules-based order, supply chains and small-state agency. Yet, Singapore’s diversified economic base—spanning manufacturing, technology, logistics and finance—allows it to cushion external shocks and rebuild confidence quickly.

Consumer sentiment is a vital indicator of economic health. Against this backdrop, the ACSS findings and Index scores reflect resilience in ASEAN consumers’ confidence in both the macroenvironment and their finances in 2025, which is an encouraging sign amid ongoing macroeconomic volatility and geopolitical tensions. Consumers are adapting to higher living costs by recalibrating priorities: spending more deliberately, saving with intent, and adjusting financial behaviours to balance present needs with future security. The findings underscore a shift toward cautious optimism, where confidence persists but is tempered by inflationary pressures and global uncertainty. This sentiment highlights how consumers across the region are navigating volatility with pragmatism rather than pessimism.

Alongside the SSEA survey, both studies also reveal how geopolitical and economic uncertainty intersect. While Southeast Asia continues to express support for broader US engagement in the region, the optimism is measured. There remains a quiet realism about its durability. Observers note that this mix of welcome and wariness reflects Southeast Asia’s long experience with fluctuating US priorities—where engagement often coexists with concerns over policy unpredictability and strategic volatility.

Furthermore, climate’s prominence across both surveys is equally striking. If climate is now an economic factor rather than an environmental one, adaptation needs to move to the core of Southeast Asia’s growth story. Weather extremes are already affecting food and energy prices, insurance costs and infrastructure risks. Countries investing in adaptation—through resilient infrastructure and early-warning systems—are likely to gain not only physical protection but also a confidence dividend. At the same time, mitigation efforts such as energy transition and greener transport are becoming new drivers of competitiveness and growth. Climate resilience, in short, is becoming integral to ASEAN’s economic strategy.

The convergence of inflation, strategic competition and climate risks shows how global volatility increasingly shapes confidence at home. The challenge ahead is not only to sustain growth but to narrow the disparities in economic conditions and climate sentiments within the region, ensuring that all members can benefit from the momentum. Ultimately, ASEAN’s ability to stay cohesive and credible will depend on how well it manages exposure, strengthens policy coordination, and builds lasting buffers against future shocks. Southeast Asia in 2025 is not a region adrift, but one navigating stronger crosswinds. As such, resilience must be reinforced, ahead of the next wave of global uncertainty.

---

Editor’s Note:
ASEANFocus+ articles are timely critical insight pieces published by the ASEAN Studies Centre.