blackbox

Southeast Asian Views on the United States: Perceptions Versus Objective Reality

US President Joe Biden (L) meets Cambodia’s Prime Minister Hun Sen on the sidelines of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit in Phnom Penh on 12 November 2022. (Photo: SAUL LOEB/AFP)

5-year data trends from the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute’s State of Southeast Asia annual survey suggest that ASEAN countries have remained ambivalent about the US’ regional leadership role on multiple fronts. While there is still a reservoir of goodwill towards the US in the region, this is being depleted in some countries and cannot be taken for granted.

Dark Horse Could Win Thai Premiership

Pheu Thai Party's prime ministerial candidate Srettha Thavisin (C) addresses journalists at the party headquarters in Bangkok on May 14, 2023 after vote counting began in Thailand's general election. (Photo: Manan VATSYAYANA / AFP)

There has been much speculation as to whether the Move Forward Party might be able to install its candidate as the prime minister of Thailand. But the country’s next leader might well emerge from the ranks of Pheu Thai, the opposition party which won the second-largest number of seats in the recent elections.

A Strategic Reset?: The Philippines-United States Alliance under President Marcos Jr

The Philippines-United States alliance has been reinvigorated since Ferdinand Marcos Jr. was elected president in May 2022. Since Marcos took office, the two countries have increased the tempo of high-level interactions and military engagements. However, an increasingly influential pro-China lobby composed of national and local politicians, pundits and media are acting in concert to undermine this revitalisation.

Battle of Indonesia’s Kingmakers: A Rift Between Jokowi and Megawati?

The incumbent president of Indonesia could tip the scales in the next election by sitting on the fence a little longer.

Move Forward Party Has Won the Election, but May Lose the Premiership Race

Move Forward Party leader and prime ministerial candidate Pita Limjaroenrat speaks to the press whilst sitting with coalition partners at the signing ceremony for a memorandum of understanding (MOU) amongst eight Thai political parties in agreement to form a new government, in Bangkok on 22 May 2023. (Photo: Lillian SUWANRUMPHA/AFP)

The Move Forward Party’s surprise victory in the Thai general election was a major upset for the Pheu Thai Party. However, Pheu Thai may be better positioned to form the next government. It has the flexibility of working with some parties in the Prayut Administration; whereas Move Forward, which is 63 votes short of winning the premiership, has rejected working with all parties in the previous government coalition.

Reinventing Pheu Thai

Move Forward Party leader and prime ministerial candidate Pita Limjaroenrat and Pheu Thai Party leader Cholanan Srikaew hold a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed by eight Thai political parties in agreement to form a new government in Bangkok on May 22, 2023. (photo: Lillian Suwanrumpha / AFP)

Faced with a disappointing second-place finish in Thailand’s 14 May election, Pheu Thai leaders must innovate and adapt for the sake of Thai democracy.

President Marcos Jr.’s Disaster Policy: Is a New Disaster Agency in the Works?

President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. led an aerial inspection over Maguindanao province, one of the hardest hit by Severe Tropical Storm “Paeng” on November 1, 2022 (Photo: Presidential Communications Office)

Instead of relying on bureaucracy to address pressing disaster management weaknesses in the Philippines, President Marcos Jr.’s administration might consider strengthening the grassroots to avoid more disasters.

Malaysia’s First Unity Government Convention: The Art of Keeping Enemies Close

Malaysia’s new Unity Government is in a state of consolidation and relative stability. The current unified coalition structure will stay in its current semi-permanent state, whereby it retains the trappings of a coalition without formalisation.

Can Vietnam Benefit from the Global Chip Rush?

Production of electronic components at Origin Manufactures Vietnam Company (a Japanese FDI enterprise) in Dong Van Industrial Park, Ha Nam province. (photo: Hóng - Tin nhanh Đắk Lắk / Facebook)

Vietnam’s semiconductor industry is expanding rapidly as firms caught in the ensuing U.S.-China trade war seek refuge in the country. But Hanoi needs to bolster support for domestic semiconductor firms to make the country a significant player in the global chip market.

Cambodia Has Benefited From BRI projects, but Must be More Strategic Going Forward

Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Sen (C) cuts a ceremonial ribbon as Chinese ambassador to Cambodia Wang Wentian (3rd R) looks on during the opening ceremony of the Morodok Techo National Stadium, funded by China's grant aid under its Belt and Road Initiative, in Phnom Penh on December 18, 2021. (Photo: Lon JADINA / AFP)

Cambodia’s participation in the Belt and Road Initiative has strengthened relations with China and brought net benefits, but also highlighted the risks of over-reliance on one country and the need for a more comprehensive framework for evaluating new investments.