Bersatu’s Muhyiddin Yassin: Why the Rush to Say ‘Good-bye’?

Muhyiddin Yassin, former Prime Minister (PM) and current President of Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu), is feeling the many pains of being in the opposition. His party’s funds are frozen, he faces charges of abuse of power, and he has family members under investigation for alleged criminal breach of trust.

Yet, Muhyiddin’s personal travails are only part of the picture. He presides over a deeply divided party. There are three factions: one centred around Muhyiddin, another led by Bersatu Deputy President and former UMNO inside man Hamzah Zainuddin, and a third headed by Bersatu Secretary General and former PKR vice-president Azmil Ali. Those affiliated with Hamzah would like Muhyiddin to step aside now, while those allied with Azmin are happy for the transfer to take place later – as long as it is to their benefit.

The last few months have seen unsightly turmoil at party congresses, followed by unconvincing rapprochements, as the pro-Hamzah and pro-Azmin factions have attacked and parried. In turn, Muhyiddin has used the party apparatus to take control. Tasik Gelugor MP Wan Saiful Wan Jan and Machang MP Wan Ahmad Fayhsal, who both had demanded Muhyiddin stand down, were sacked and suspended, respectively. A third MP, Saifuddin Abdullah, who subsequently spoke out against Muhyiddin is under investigation by Bersatu’s disciplinary board.

Why the rush to jettison Muhyiddin? He was elected unopposed as party president last year and his term lasts until 2027. Unlike Hamzah and Azmin, Muhyiddin has a national profile. He has been Chief Minister of Johor, Deputy Prime Minister and, following his sacking from UMNO in the wake of the 1MDB scandal, became a founder of Bersatu. Following the Sheraton Move that toppled Pakatan Harapan 1.0, he was the natural choice for PM. Muhyiddin’s tenure coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic, and his handling of it was well-regarded, particularly by Malay voters. Affectionately known as ‘Abah’ (father), surveys indicated substantial support for him even after his administration and in the run-up to the 2022 general election (GE).

The argument that Muhyiddin is too old does not hold water. At 78, he is the same age as PM Anwar Ibrahim, who clearly has his sights on a second term. Muhyiddin’s 2024 announcement of his retirement was more likely to have been a test of his political viability, as the decision was reversed a mere day later following an outpouring of support.  

The second argument is that Malaysia’s traditional rulers do not like him. In 2021, Muhyiddin was rebuked by the King over the ending of the declaration of emergency during the pandemic, which, among other factors, led to his resignation. Then, in the wake of the 2022 GE, Muhyiddin turned down the King’s invitation to form a unity government. While important, this is not an insurmountable barrier. First, should Muhyiddin’s coalition obtain a sound majority, it would be hard for the King to block his appointment. Second, Malaysia now has a new King, who happens to know Muhyiddin well. Hailing from Johor, Muhyiddin was Mentri Besar when the monarch was the crown prince.

…Muhyiddin’s personal travails are only part of the picture. He presides over a deeply divided party.

Regardless of whether the drivers for change in the party are deep-seated and genuine, Parti Se-Islam Malaysia (PAS), Bersatu’s partner in the Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition, has taken a visible interest in its partner’s internal affairs – albeit indirectly. Given his profile and current chairmanship of PN, Muhyiddin is the coalition’s de facto pick for PM. Yet, with the next GE on the horizon, several PAS leaders have stated that the coalition should not be “overly enthusiastic” to name a prime ministerial candidate.

This is a tectonic shift in the relationship between the two parties. To date, Bersatu has been the public face of the coalition. During Muhyiddin’s administration (2020-2021), Bersatu monopolised all senior cabinet positions, restricting PAS to junior portfolios such as environment and water; law; and plantations, industries and commodities.

In the 2022 GE, Bersatu was allocated the lion’s share of Malay-majority constituencies in which to contest. The party ran in 81 parliamentary seats as opposed to PAS’s 70. Yet, it was PAS that secured 43 seats as opposed to Bersatu’s 31 (which have since dwindled to 25).

Looking ahead to the next GE, PAS wants to ensure that it can run in seats in the centre of the Peninsula. The party has its eye on seats in states like Selangor, Perak, and Pahang, traditional hunting grounds for Bersatu. PAS has targeted winning 80 parliamentary seats, many of which would have to come at Bersatu’s expense.

Why doesn’t PAS contest alone? The party has many assets, including a formidable grassroots network, community-run kindergartens across the country (which can be used for party activities in the evenings), a volunteer force for natural disasters, study groups in many universities, and roving ambassadors to encourage out-station voters from Kelantan and Terengganu to return home to vote.

Yet, past voting patterns show that PAS always does better as part of a coalition. The party is keenly aware that taking an overt leadership role could spook non-Malays and alienate Malay voters more amenable to Bersatu’s ethno-nationalism rather than PAS’ ethno-religious ethos. Consequently, PAS would like to retain the partnership with Bersatu to provide a more politically acceptable cover for the coalition as a whole, as long as Bersatu has a more pliable leader.

From this vantage point, Hamzah offers two key advantages over Muhyiddin. First, he is less well-known and has no political traction outside of Bersatu. Second, he is supremely pragmatic and always ready to cut a deal: Hamzah is credited as one of the masterminds of the Sheraton Move. PAS would much rather have someone with whom they can do business as opposed to a senior statesman with an acute sense of his own political profile. This is why at the PAS congress last September, party president Hadi Awang stated the ideal prime ministerial candidate would be someone under 70 and who would lead ‘collectively’.

Since PN’s establishment five years ago, the Islamist party has been hiding its strength and biding its time. The time may well have come, and Muhyiddin’s farewell could come sooner than he would like.

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