Bhumjaithai-Led Government’s Platform Promises Financial Prudence but Needs Industrial Direction

The Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) secured 193 seats in the 500-seat parliament in the recent Thai general election. The BJT’s election manifesto provides some hints on the economic policy direction of the coalition government it is expected to lead. 

The manifesto suggests that the new government is likely to re-launch its signature ‘Half-half plus’ programme, which entails the government subsidising 50 per cent of expenditures on selected food, drink, and general goods up to a specified limit and duration. Similar programmes were launched during the Covid-19 pandemic and under BJT leader Anutin’s administration from October to December last year.  

The other manifesto pledges can be classified into the five strategies. The first strategy, known as ’10 plus’, aims to accelerate the economic growth of Thailand. The goals of this strategy are to improve economic livelihoods, promote private investment, undertake state-private co-investment, upgrade productivity, establish new trade partnerships, and remove cumbersome regulations.

The second strategy seeks to help SMEs by improving their access to credit, enhancing their digital literacy, and facilitating their access to new markets.

The third strategy aims to address Thailand’s aging society challenges by offering income tax exemption/redemption for older workers and tax deductions for hiring older workers, and by deploying to each subdistrict one volunteer nurse to care specifically for older persons.

The fourth strategy seeks to address the border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia by building a wall between the two countries.

The final strategy covers a broad range of areas such as energy, education, and disaster management, through key interventions such as a community solar project, free online courses, and disaster insurance, respectively.

Taken together, the election pledges are unlikely to translate into huge expansionary fiscal policies. A few measures, especially the community solar project, ‘Half-half plus’ programme, and disaster warning system, require substantial public funding, but the overall estimated cost is rather modest (Table 1). Specific activities in the pledge, including the Southern Economic Corridor/Land Bridge, will be financed by off-budget mechanisms like public-private partnerships or the Infrastructure Fund, whereas fiscal resources within government agencies will be reallocated to other activities (e.g., Tourism Development Fund). According to thaipublica.org, the BJT’s main pledges require the least fiscal resources among the other parties that secured more than five seats in this election. The total amount of THB148 billion accounts for less than 4 per cent of the Thai government’s total budget for the 2026 fiscal year.

Being the incumbent party responsible for the day-to-day running of the government before the election, the BJT’s pledges reflect an awareness of Thailand’s remaining fiscal space. They also demonstrate a commitment to conservative fiscal policies, which could enhance Thailand’s sovereign creditworthiness and improve the country’s long-term economic outlook, particularly if the Thai government plans to borrow from abroad in the future. Whether the BJT’s to-be coalition partners successfully implement their pledges — and whether they request additional fiscal resources — remains to be seen.

Table 1. Key BJT 2026 election manifesto pledges and fiscal allocations

The BJT’s manifesto pinned its strong 10 per cent annual economic growth aspirations on increased inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) through removing cumbersome regulations, including the long approval time for Board of Investment (BOI)-promoted projects. The BOI Fast Pass mechanism, which was proposed during Anutin’s first term, is expected to be rolled out in the second term. It could unlock 480 billion baht of private investment that had been approved by BOI, as well as new direct investments to come.

The potential gains from regulatory streamlining can be greatly amplified when accompanied by efforts to overcome other fundamental and urgent challenges, including education access and quality, skilled labor shortages, and infrastructure deficiencies. However, the BJT seems to rely on the existing bureaucratic frameworks to deliver these objectives, which its manifesto mentions without furnishing concrete action plans.

The costs of policy indecision will compound amid the escalating geopolitical tensions and the ongoing global supply chain reconfiguration.

Some economic areas were not accorded adequate attention. The new government should prioritise a stronger and clearer policy direction for manufacturing development, despite the omission of this issue in the manifesto.

The sector remains crucial in terms of value added, export, and employment. Thailand has not outlined a major policy direction for manufacturing since in 2014, when the government announced 10 new targeted industries (known as 5-S and 5 New-S curves), under the Thailand 4.0 campaign together with the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC). Two more industries were added in 2020 (defense and education and human resource development industries). Some of these 12 industries under Thailand 4.0 were continued under the Ignite Thailand Scheme of Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin (August 2023 – August 2024), but since September 2024, there has been no clear policy direction for the nation’s industries.

The costs of policy indecision will compound amid the escalating geopolitical tensions and the ongoing global supply chain reconfiguration. The incoming government should formulate and integrate a new policy for the country’s manufacturing sector.

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