Dubai Move Failed to Understand GPS

It is safe to say that the plot to overthrow Anwar Ibrahim’s government — the so-called Dubai Move — has failed. The secret meeting at the United Arab Emirates’ city between opposition MPs, confirmed by the government communications department and Zahid Hamidi, sought to entice government MPs to switch allegiance to a government led by Perikatan Nasional (PN).

This is not the first time; in fact, “tebuk atap” (creating a hole in the roof) has become a staple strategy by the opposition since the Unity Government came to power. It became most pronounced during last year’s state elections.

Notwithstanding an anti-party hopping law in place, MPs are still allowed to switch their support in Parliament without being forced to vacate their seat, provided they do not leave their parties. This legal possibility was upheld when the draft law was negotiated, as the PN parties wanted that flexibility, and only punished MPs when they defected or became independent. This benefited the Unity Government last year when a few PN MPs switched their support to the Unity Government in return for constituency allocations.

Even so, PN’s challenge is still difficult as they could only succeed in toppling the government if they have the support of the Sarawak-based coalition, GPS. This is because PN only has 70 seats in Parliament, and would require a minimum transfer of 42 seats. Outside of Pakatan Harapan, the other significant coalitions that PN needs to have on its side are Barisan Nasional, in which the United Malays National Organization (UMNO) holds the most seats, and Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS).

Getting UMNO to switch over is hard, given its animosity with the other two Malay parties, Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS) and Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu). The only sensible solution for PN was to get GPS to switch sides, hoping that this would create a snowball effect for the rest to follow. This strategy was most critical, given GPS’s importance.

PN understood this. The ideological reason for forming a grand Bumiputera — Malay and non-Malay—government was insufficient without following through with personal rewards. GPS’s Fadillah Yusof currently holds the second deputy prime minister post, a shrewd move by Anwar in November 2022. This was reinforced by Fadillah’s recent appointment as energy minister, in line with Sarawak’s focus on energy transition. The only prize that would be better is the prime ministership. This offer was rumoured to be at the centre of the Dubai Move negotiations.

In the past, GPS made itself available to the highest bidder: A kingmaker. Its main interest is to be in government, regardless of who was in charge, supposedly so that they could extract maximum benefit for their state. This is a pragmatic approach which is not faulted by voters. In addition, it makes up for the years when the state was allegedly deprived by the federal government of what was rightfully theirs.

The coalition’s purpose, narrative, identity, flag (hornbill with Sarawak flag colours), slogan (“Sarawak First”), and anthem (“GPS Prioritises Sarawak”) are built on Sarawak’s rights. Chief ministers of the state rise in popularity when they show their ability to obtain concessions from the federal government, most particularly in devolution of state rights under the Malaysia Agreement 1963.

However, the assumptions surrounding GPS misunderstands the role and incentive structure of the party in national politics.

Firstly, a Sarawak-based party would always be at a strategic disadvantage to assume the prime ministership compared to a national party because of its seat number ceiling. GPS currently holds 23 out of the maximum 31 seats that are available to Sarawak, and this means that its chance of being the largest party or coalition — a convention that creates stability — is small.

Its chairman, Abang Johari, also the premier of Sarawak, knew this so well, that he dismissed the Dubai Move as “nonsense” and said that he was not “paloi” (stupid). Even if GPS were to accept PN’s offer of the prime minister post, there is no guarantee that the larger coalition partners, PAS (43 seats) and Bersatu (31), would not replace him some time after. This is especially tenuous as Abang Johari has never been a member of the federal parliament. He is the leader of GPS and Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Sarawak (PBB), a component party of the coalition. While the country’s top post could theoretically go to Fadillah Yusof as part of a PN-brokered move, he remains subordinate to Abang Johari. This shows that the premiership of Sarawak is the foremost prize.

Secondly, and most importantly, GPS would not want to assume absolute federal powers as it is fundamentally a regional coalition. The coalition’s purpose, narrative, identity, flag (hornbill with Sarawak flag colours), slogan (“Sarawak First”), and anthem (“GPS Prioritises Sarawak”) are built on Sarawak’s rights. Chief ministers of the state rise in popularity when they show their ability to obtain concessions from the federal government, most particularly in devolution of state rights under the Malaysia Agreement 1963.

Of course, this is not to say that GPS could not have federal ambitions one day. However, GPS risks losing relevance in Sarawak if it mismanages its evolution from a regional to national player.

GPS’s near-monopoly of Sarawak now is largely due to how its premier, Abang Johari, was able to wrest back control on immigration, education, and energy, and prove that they could be run better or at least in the way Sarawakians want. GPS’s ideal strategy would be a variation of the Goldilocks formula: be close to the federal government by being in the Cabinet, yet distant enough, so that it does not assume full responsibility and could still criticise the federal government’s faults.

If Abang Johari becomes prime minister, the coalition’s stature as fighter against federal domination and a protector of Sarawakians’ rights will be diluted. This would also open the door for national parties like DAP and PKR to compete within the state and use Abang Johari’s federal shortcomings as a tool to make inroads.

For all of PN’s political machinations, any backroom deal in the shady world of politics requires a willing “buyer” and willing “seller”. Put simply, the Dubai Move would have been successful if GPS had “bought” it — all available evidence shows that it did not.

2024/20