Fanning the Yellow Flames of Thai Politics: Not So Fast

It must have been music to the ears of Thailand’s anti-Thaksin Shinawatra conservatives when media mogul Sondhi Limthongkul recently announced his readiness to take to the streets one last time to protest against the government now led by Thaksin’s daughter, Paetongtarn. Two decades ago, Sondhi stoked public discontent with Thaksin and mobilised the yellow-clad People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) in a movement that sparked the political crisis leading to the 2006 military coup, which ousted Thaksin and forced him into exile. However, Sondhi’s latest attempt to fan the old yellow flames is unlikely to set off the same chain reaction in today’s political landscape.

To be clear, Sondhi is not to be faulted if his rallying cry fails to summon the kind of fervent crowds that occupied the Suvarnabhumi and Don Mueang airports, and laid siege to Government House for months. He has, after all, zeroed in on what may well be a combustible set of issues to catalyse his new crusade.

First is the alleged abuse of power by various state officials in orchestrating Thaksin’s transfer from prison to a room on the 14th floor of the Police General Hospital, where he ostensibly served six months before being granted early parole. The arrangement remains controversial due to lingering doubts over the validity of Thaksin’s health claims and whether he genuinely served his sentence as claimed. The National Anti-Corruption Commission recently accepted for investigation a formal complaint accusing the Corrections Department, the Medical Correctional Institute, and the Police General Hospital of granting Thaksin preferential treatment.

“How is this even possible? They’re abusing the justice system. Thailand’s laws are being trampled under the feet of these politicians — they’re walking all over it. The time has come to unite those who agree with us. We need to make Thai society, or these evil politicians, realise [that they have overstepped their bounds],” Sondhi declared.

By combining themes of corruption, moral decay, and the erosion of the rule of law with nationalist rhetoric, he is once again attempting to stir popular resentment using a playbook he has perfected over decades.

In 2006, Sondhi accused Thaksin of selling out Thailand through the controversial sale of Shin Corporation to Singapore’s Temasek Holdings. The deal, which gave a foreign entity significant control of critical telecommunications infrastructure and allowed the Shinawatras to avoid paying taxes on substantial capital gains, became a rallying point for him to paint Thaksin as a dictator abusing power and undermining national security for personal gain. In 2008, he tapped into anxieties over territorial sovereignty during the dispute between Thailand and Cambodia over the Preah Vihear Temple. He used the issue to mount a campaign that crippled the government of Samak Sundaravej, widely seen as a proxy administration for Thaksin.

…much of the royalist elite must by now recognise that Thaksin has been granted a special kind of patronage, one that will not dry up as long as he continues to serve as a counterbalance to rising progressive forces.

It is only fitting that Sondhi is again exploiting the border disputes between Thailand and Cambodia to galvanise support among conservatives who remain wary of any perceived concessions to Cambodia. Hun Sen, Cambodia’s former premier and now President of the Senate, seems to share a cosy relationship with Thaksin — a dynamic that has long bred suspicions of backdoor deals that could compromise Thailand’s sovereignty. Sondhi has issued a 15-day ultimatum demanding that the Paetongtarn administration reconsider its commitment to resume negotiations with Cambodia over overlapping maritime claims in the Gulf of Thailand based on the 2001 Memorandum of Understanding (MoU 2544), signed during Thaksin’s premiership.

Calling for a constitutional review or revocation of the agreement, Sondhi declared, “MoU 2544 is a sell-out agreement. Thailand has never had overlapping areas. Do you know what’s overlapping? The Prime Minister is overlapping.”

Sondhi’s activities will surely put pressure on the Pheu Thai-led government. But his call to action may struggle to resonate beyond a small group of anti-Thaksin hardliners. More importantly, he might have little chance of securing much-needed support from the urban middle class and the royalist elite that once formed the shield and the spear of his Yellow Shirt movement. Anti-Thaksin sentiment among the former group has found a new voice in parliament, where a more credible opposition to Thaksin has emerged in the form of Move Forward/People’s Party. Unlike the Democrat Party, which has a history of boycotting elections and turning its back on parliamentary politics in favour of street protests, the People’s Party has shown itself to be more committed to parliamentary processes in its opposition to Pheu Thai, which it also eclipsed in terms of the number of seats in the House of Representatives.

Of course, the sincerity of that opposition remains in doubt, given the speculated “Hong Kong deal” between Thaksin and Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit to form an alliance between their parties (and hence, obviate the need to partner with military-aligned parties). However, the People’s Party has stepped up its efforts to avoid being seen as going easy on Thaksin. This is demonstrated by the actions of the House Committee on National Security, chaired by Rangsiman Rome of the People’s Party, to investigate claims of Thaksin receiving preferential treatment during his hospital stay.

On the other hand, much of the royalist elite must by now recognise that Thaksin has been granted a special kind of patronage, one that will not dry up as long as he continues to serve as a counterbalance to rising progressive forces. Not only is the accusation that Thaksin is anti-monarchy — once used by the PAD to discredit his government — unlikely to hold any weight today, but he has also become a necessary ally in preserving the conservative status quo. Instead of resorting to street protests that could spiral out of control and invite a coup, which could prove costly and unpredictable, it is better to keep Thaksin in play, provided he (or his daughter’s government) can be held accountable through other means should he abuse his privileges. Judging by Pheu Thai’s latest decision to backpedal on its proposed revisions to the Defence Ministry Administration Act, which is aimed at preventing coups, it is clear that the Pheu Thai-led government is already doing a fine job of keeping itself on a leash. In short, there is no need for Sondhi to put it down.

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