Heading Into GE16: Desires and Dissensions

Malaysian politics was largely stable until the Sabah state elections in November 2025. Although the status quo remained in Sabah with the incumbent winning the most seats, a series of tensions and conflicts started emerging within and between coalitions thereafter. For observers of Malaysian politics, such signs do not make for easy prognostications going into the next general elections.

Since the Sabah election, the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), the oldest Malay party, has faced internal calls to withdraw from the coalition government. The opposition coalition Perikatan Nasional (PN) has suffered a deep leadership crisis after an internal coup in the smallest state of Perlis, and the resignations of key senior leaders, including former Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin. Even the prime minister’s coalition, Pakatan Harapan (PH), suffered a rare internal conflict when the Democratic Action Party (DAP), the predominantly ethnic Chinese party, issued a six-month ultimatum calling for reforms before it ‘reassesses its role in government’. All these events have happened in less than two months since the Sabah elections.

It is widely speculated that in 2026, three state elections — Melaka, Sarawak, and Johor — will be called before these state assemblies run their full term. These will likely compound the political uncertainty unleashed by the Sabah state elections and put Malaysia into fresh rounds of volatility.

The Sabah elections emitted a few signals of unease to the ruling coalition. One, the massive 51.1 per cent swing of Chinese votes against the Chinese-majority DAP party indicates the first Chinese voter split in nearly a decade. Two, the unity government parties have tested contesting separately rather than as a single bloc for the first time since 2022, which may point to the actual election formula that UMNO has in mind. Three, Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS), the Islamic party, saw a historic electoral breakthrough in Sabah by winning its first-ever seat. This has given it confidence that it has good local candidates acceptable to wide voter groups.

These signals already have important implications for how parties think and act today. For the first time in nearly two decades, there is a brewing and public conflict between DAP and Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR); the former is now under enormous pressure from its Chinese voter base to deliver reforms. That was what prompted DAP leaders to restart conversations on the Unified Education Certificate (UEC) administered by Chinese independent schools. Anwar has also announced exemptions on e-invoicing requirements for small businesses and a series of institutional reforms in his New Year’s speech.

These reforms, however, are unlikely to convince Chinese voters to return to the DAP. What would likely happen, however, is that the six-month ultimatum becomes a form of pressure on the unity government. It may intensify the tensions between DAP and PKR as both parties may reconsider their election strategy and determine whether the other is becoming a liability to their success.

At the same time, the inclinations within the UMNO rank and file to leave the unity government will likely grow over time. UMNO’s loss of five of its incumbent seats in the Sabah state elections reignited the feeling that the party does not benefit from being in the unity government. Such sentiments have been exacerbated by former president Najib Razak’s predicament of being denied house arrest, and 15 year jail sentence for the largest 1MDB-related case.

UMNO youth chief, Muhamad Akmal Saleh, resigned as Melaka exco member when the party rejected his motion for UMNO to leave the unity government. To reassure a disgruntled grassroots, UMNO president, Zahid Hamidi, had to reaffirm to his party that, although they will remain in government for now (presumably for convenience and resources), they will certainly contest the next election solo.

Unlike the past where coalitions pitched a clear prime ministerial candidate against the other, the selections now are vast.

The dissension in the ranks of the coalition government also echoes in the opposition. Out of ambition or a sense of betrayal, PN chairman Muhyiddin Yassin, along with other senior leaders, resigned from their PN positions a few days before the new year. The war of words between Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu), the indigenous party, and PAS indicates that tensions have been long-simmering, with both parties ready to sever ties with the other. The Sabah elections have emboldened PAS, such that it sees Bersatu as the coalition’s weakest link. This renewed confidence prompted the Islamic party to secure the PN chairmanship for itself, with the PAS president claiming that it has many prime ministerial candidates to choose from.

Unlike the past, where coalitions pitched a clear prime ministerial candidate against the other, the selections now are vast. The candidates ready to challenge Anwar Ibrahim include Muhyiddin Yassin (former PN chairman), Zahid Hamidi (UMNO president), Hamzah Zainuddin (leader of the opposition), Dr Samsuri Mokhtar (PAS vice-president), and Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Mat (PAS deputy president). They are no longer wildcard candidates but names that were discussed seriously by their parties.

Malaysian politics have undergone a massive reconfiguration since the first government turnover in 2018. While 2026 will likely be turbulent, the real test is whether parties can offer voters anything they have not seen before.

2026/19