Malaysia’s ASEAN Chairmanship: Facing Treacherous Geopolitical Headwinds

Former Fox News host turned presidential nominee for US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s inability to name any ASEAN country in his Senate confirmation hearing was concerning but frankly, not surprising. General awareness about Southeast Asia — compared to Northeast Asia — in Washington DC is low. More significantly, given the strength of the “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) narrative under Trump 2.0, the ASEAN Chair’s job just got a lot harder. This is the same for Cambodia, which is Coordinator of ASEAN-US dialogue relations. Securing a Summit with incoming President Trump or anybody from the new Administration is going to be a tall order — but perhaps it is better for ASEAN to fly under Washington’s radar for now.

The ASEAN foreign ministers will meet this weekend for their first Retreat on Langkawi, off the northwest coast of peninsular Malaysia, to set the bloc’s agenda for the year. How ASEAN can navigate the increasingly tough geopolitical scene likely will dominate their conversation.

Malaysia’s ASEAN Chairmanship theme of “Inclusivity and Sustainability” echoes the country’s loftier ambitions articulated by Prime Minister (PM) Anwar Ibrahim in a commentary published last December. In it, PM Anwar elaborates on Malaysia’s strategic approach to the issues facing ASEAN and references his 1996 book The Asian Renaissance, where he outlined a vision of an ASEAN renaissance. It encompasses “values of compassion, justice, and integrity”, which “must be woven into the fabric of ASEAN’s future if the region is to achieve a second renaissance that benefits all”. This vision resembles PM Anwar’s domestic vision, Malaysia Madani, which builds on similar values of sustainability, prosperity, innovation, respect, trust and compassion.

If Indonesia is known for delivering the Bali Concords that gave ASEAN strategic heft, Malaysia is the other ASEAN founding member fond of delivering ‘vision’. One of the most significant milestones Malaysia can expect to tick off this year is the adoption of the ASEAN Community Vision 2045, accompanied by strategic plans, on the tenth anniversary of the ASEAN Community. The first ASEAN Vision 2020 was adopted in 1997 under Malaysia’s Chairmanship and envisioned ASEAN as a “concert of Southeast Asian nations”. Subsequently, the ASEAN Community Vision 2025 was adopted — again under Malaysia’s Chairmanship, in 2015, which elevated ASEAN as a peaceful, stable and resilient community within “a global community of nations”. In serving up version 3.0 of the Vision, Malaysia wants ASEAN to become an integrated community, putting people at the centre and ensuring the grouping’s continued relevance, success and sustainability.

As Chair, Malaysia has a long to-do list…

In PM Anwar’s words: “The ambition is not merely to uphold stability but to shape a just regional order. This vision also includes a commitment to ending the turmoil in Myanmar, a test that ASEAN’s collective conscience must pass if it is to maintain its credibility”. Yet Malaysia must go beyond rhetoric in stewarding a workable resolution to the Myanmar political crisis, which has stretched ASEAN’s limits and tested ASEAN’s solidarity, as well as its sincerity in wanting a “Myanmar-owned, Myanmar-led” process.

What more, PM Anwar, who suggested “carving Myanmar out” (of ASEAN) in a 2022 speech, has appointed former Thai PM Thaksin Shinawatra as his personal advisor, presumably in recognition of Thailand’s elevated concerns about how the conflict in Myanmar affects Thailand and Thaksin’s personal ties, which might allow him to engage with the military junta closely. PM Anwar, a reformist, can be expected to deploy Madani values to the conversations needed among the many sides of Myanmar’s domestic political divide.

While there is an opportunity for Malaysia to change the trajectory on Myanmar, it may be challenging for Malaysia as Chair to balance the different ASEAN members’ and Myanmar’s immediate neighbours’ divergent positions on the crisis. Convincing Myanmar’s largest neighbour China, which has indicated support for the SAC’s planned elections, to respect ASEAN’s approach would be challenging. While China’s ultimate objective may be to push for different leadership dynamics within Myanmar, such a move will almost certainly be rejected by the international community and Myanmar people as a whitewashing tactic. Given the relatively weak position of the Myanmar military, which has reportedly lost up to 60 per cent of territorial control, it is time for ASEAN to rethink its engagement strategy with non-state actors because any government’s legitimacy rests on effective control and popular will.

The South China Sea (SCS) is another potential flashpoint that the region fears may worsen this year, but the issue was conspicuously absent from PM Anwar’s Project Syndicate commentary, which shed some insight into the ASEAN Chair’s preoccupations. The SCS is a Gordian Knot that Malaysia may be unwilling to untie, and the situation is further complicated by the somewhat tense relationship between Malaysia and the US over the Gaza conflict. Juxtaposed against Malaysia’s excellent bilateral relationship with China and Malaysia’s current role as country coordinator for ASEAN-China relations, the safest move for Malaysia may simply be to do nothing but keep the façade of the SCS Code of Conduct negotiations alive.

As Chair, Malaysia has a long to-do list, ranging from the conclusion of the world’s first region-wide Digital Economy Framework Agreement, digital transformation, investment in infrastructure, formally admitting Timor-Leste as a full member, and pursuing deeper South-South cooperation. A successful ASEAN Chairmanship year depends on a favourable external environment. For Malaysia’s and ASEAN’s case, however, geopolitics look set to become a whole lot more treacherous.

2025/18