Outcome of Recent Thai Provincial Elections Heralds Tighter Race in Next General Election

Two years before the next general election (GE), neither Pheu Thai (PT, the chief government party) nor People’s Party (the opposition leader) has gained sustained popularity. This is one of five implications observers can draw from the recent results of the elections for provincial administrative organisation (PAO) chiefs.

The Thai political arena now sees a three-cornered fight among PT, People’s Party, and Bhumjaithai (BJT, the second largest government party). Founded in November 2008, BJT has risen to tail the two larger parties but has a long way to go to gain national appeal. 

The third implication is that none of the three parties seems capable of winning a majority in the 500-member House of Representatives in the next GE. In the May 2023 GE, the PT came second, winning 141 House seats. The predecessor of the People’s Party, Move Forward Party (MFP, dissolved on 7 August 2024) won 151 seats; BJT came in a distant third with 71 seats.

The next GE, which is due by May 2027 – earlier if the House is dissolved – will lead to the formation of yet another coalition government, most probably with two of these three parties at its core.

The last implication is that BJT could gain support from more wealthy and influential political families in the provinces (the so-called “Baan Yai” or Big House). In such a scenario, BJT leader Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Interior Anutin Charnvirakul’s prospects of winning the next premiership will improve significantly.

The election of new PAO chiefs in 47 provinces was held on 1 February. Earlier, there were separate elections in the other 29 provinces where incumbent PAO chiefs resigned before the end of their four-year term. 

The BJT did not officially field any candidates but candidates from “Baan Yai” in the BJT’s network altogether won in 15 of 76 provinces. The PT and its allies won in 26 provinces whereas the People’s Party won only in one province in Lamphun. Independent candidates won in 20 provinces.

Historically, the BJT has no strong national appeal: it has never won House seats in Bangkok but has successfully cultivated support from Baan Yai to win House seats, especially in Buriram and other nearby provinces in Thailand’s Lower Northeast. 

Last June, the BJT’s network of Baan Yai scored a remarkable success in the election of 200 senators. More than a half of the elected senators are considered “allies” of BJT; thus, BJT’s growing political fortunes can attract support of more Baan Yai families when the next GE draws nearer.

Thaksin’s daughter, Prime Minister Paetongtarn, leader of Pheu Thai, attributed the party’s candidates’ sub-par performance to “disunity” among PT veterans in some provinces.

In the PAO elections’ aftermath, former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who had campaigned for several PT candidates, lamented that the election outcome could have been better. He lamented that voters younger than 40 years of age may not know or remember what he had done for the country when he had served twice as premier.

Now, instead of trying to drive PT to win a majority of House seats, Thaksin has lowered his goal: for PT to get more than 200 House seats in the next GE.

Thaksin’s daughter, Prime Minister Paetongtarn, leader of Pheu Thai, attributed the party’s candidates’ sub-par performance to “disunity” among PT veterans in some provinces. Defeats in Chiang Rai and Lamphun – two northern provinces in PT’s stronghold – were unexpected and painful. She called for renewed concerted efforts from her PT colleagues to start preparing for the next GE.

At first, the People’s Party had high hopes of winning in more provinces, especially in the six where its predecessor MFP swept all House seats in 2023: Chanthaburi (3 seats), Nonthaburi (8), Rayong (5), Samut Prakan (8), Samut Songkham (1), and Samut Sakhon (3).  However, all candidates of the party in these provinces lost.

The disappointing outcome came despite former leader of Future Forward (MFP’s predecessor), Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, and former MFP leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, actively campaigning for the party’s candidates. 

One serious handicap they faced was the lack of charisma of party leader Natthapong Ruengpanyawut. He is not well-known, unlike Thanathorn and Pita. Another weakness was the party’s lack of strong candidates with good connections to local communities. 

One important factor behind the surprise victory of People’s Party in Lamphun is that its candidate, Viradej Pupisit, benefited from the province’s highest voter turnout of about 73 per cent, compared with an average of 58.45 per cent voter turnout in all 47 provinces that participated in the PAO election.

The People’s Party leadership conceded that it had failed to mobilise more supporters, partly citing how election day (1 February) was a Saturday, when many of its supporters had to work.

One good opportunity for the People’s Party leadership to redeem itself will be in the no-confidence debate against the Paetongtarn Cabinet, expected to take place in the coming months. Whatever the case, the People’s Party needs to show new and concrete proof that it has greater potential than both PT and BJT to change Thailand for the better.

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