PAS’ Prime Minister Candidate: Great Expectations

In the 2 December parliamentary by-election in Kemaman, the winner, Dr Samsuri Mokhtar (or “Dr Sam”) said his landslide was a “game-changer” for Perikatan Nasional’s (PN’s) march to Putrajaya. When asked whether he is now the coalition’s PM candidate, Dr Sam remained coy, but kept the door open. His presumed anointing underscores the political ambitions of Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS).

Perhaps no by-election prior to Kemaman has created so much excitement for PAS. The party converted a moral defeat (parliamentary seat annulled by the Election Court) to an opportunity to place a technocratic, scholarly politician as its first PM candidate. Dr Sam’s candidacy at Kemaman attracted overwhelming praise from PAS’s top two leaders, former PM Mahathir Mohamad, and Bersatu president Muhyiddin Yassin, who touted Dr Sam as PN’s secret ingredient to capture Putrajaya. Dr Sam won the seat with a 37,220 vote majority. PAS is a key member of the PN coalition.

The timing seemed fitting. PAS’s triumphant showing at GE15 in November 2022 and state elections in July 2023 created a lasting tailwind, and PN’s current PM candidate, Muhyiddin Yassin, has indicated his desire to step down. With the backing of PAS’s senior leadership, especially its president Hadi Awang, Dr Sam appears to have an appointment with destiny.

Dr Sam’s doctorate in aerospace and university lectureship sufficiently differentiates him from the stereotypical PAS leader. He is unlike the traditionally conservative Kelantan leadership or the populist Sanusi Md Nor in Kedah. Serving his second term as the chief minister of Terengganu — which he won with a clean sweep in 2022 — he spearheaded the “state government four” SG4 initiative among the four PAS-led states. Within PAS, Dr Sam is also perceived to have earned his stripes by working patiently, first as the political secretary to Hadi at the age of 38, before being elevated to the state assembly 10 years later.

PAS’s decision to place Dr Sam in Parliament provides more evidence that PAS intends to build internal capabilities to go to Putrajaya on its own steam. It is even willing to neutralise its hardline image — toning down Islamist rhetoric and sidelining its populist leader, Sanusi — and introduce a moderate leader to win urban and non-Malay votes.

In the first parliamentary sitting of 2024, Dr Sam’s role would be the opposition’s centre of focus. To give meaning to Dr Sam’s PM positioning, he needs to be elevated to a senior and influential shadow minister role. The most ideal scenario for PAS is to see Dr Sam take on the minister-level Leader of Opposition role that comes with perks and standing to match the government. These choices entail replacing a senior leader from Parti Bersatu Pribumi Malaysia (Bersatu) — PAS’ coalition partner in PN. Currently, most of the senior shadow ministers (finance, economy, education and defence) and the opposition leader, Hamzah Zainuddin, are from Bersatu.

Although Muhyiddin does not discount the possibility that Dr Sam could be a future PM candidate, he did not openly accept PAS’s desires. This is understandable as Bersatu sees itself as the de facto party to assume the role.

Once again, PAS’s expansion of influence will have to come at the expense of Bersatu, and the parliamentary term of 2024 will likely uncover the relationship both parties are most comfortable with. Factions will consolidate in Bersatu: One a realist worldview, comfortable playing a supporting role to PAS as a strategic measure to capture Putrajaya; another an expansionist mindset, insisting that Bersatu should be the dominant partner.

PAS’s decision to place Dr Sam in Parliament provides more evidence that PAS intends to build internal capabilities to go to Putrajaya on its own.

Touting Dr Sam as a PM candidate also comes with a burden that PAS must bear. While Dr Sam’s elevation to Parliament is meant for his exposure and training, his parliamentary and state performance will now be scrutinised. No longer will Dr Sam enjoy the relative political isolation he did in Terengganu; instead he will be tested on national issues, beyond Terengganu and SG4’s development outcomes. Dr Sam will likely start on federalism contentions, fighting for more decentralisation and increased allocation and royalties from the federal government to the states. This, however, is not new. Over time, he will carry the burden of lifting the standard of opposition debates.

While PAS has marketed Dr Sam as an exceptional technocratic leader, validated through his latest state budget entitled “Heading to a New Era Terengganu”, changes in the state have been anything but transformational. Other than outperforming national GDP numbers in 2021 and increasing the amount of investments, there have not been memorable flagship policies or projects. Terengganu’s satisfaction rate of 69.2 per cent was lower than other key states, and this rating was even lower in areas such as the economy, water, and welfare. Analysts surmised that PAS’s clean sweep of Terengganu may be more reflective of a desire for a PAS federal government than a direct endorsement of Dr Sam’s administration.

Bridging the perception-reality gap is important for Dr Sam, and this is most vital in his treatment of non-Malays. Kemaman, after all, was a 94 per cent Malay constituency and did not reflect any non-Malay and urban sentiment towards Dr Sam.

Dr Sam may try to appease the non-Malays in Terengganu by expanding allocation for non-Muslim education, cultural festivities, and places of worship, but they must be substantial instead of tokenistic. Dr Sam could also adopt a strategic egalitarian approach to race (and not religion) like PAS’s earliest leaders, to win over non-Malays.

However, even if Dr Sam succeeds in doing these, he will only be seen as a façade to the hardliners within his party. Non-Malays could also tell the difference between PAS’s late spiritual leader, Nik Aziz, who was the voice of the party, and Dr Sam, who is only third in rank, surrounded by conservatives in the party hierarchy.

After the excitement dies down towards the end of the year, Dr Sam will be given the daunting task of realising the expectations placed on him. Aside from his credentials and scandal-free past, Dr Sam’s track record has yet to be built. As such, PAS’s historic experiment to ascend to the peak of political power in Putrajaya has only started.

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