Pheu Thai in Decline? Its Northern Push Suggests Otherwise

The February 2026 General Election in Thailand poses a significant challenge for the Pheu Thai Party, which seeks to reclaim constituencies lost in the 2023 election. To strengthen its electoral prospects, Pheu Thai is relying on incumbents, the children of former Members of Parliament who have already retired, and candidates drawn from established political families or local political dynasties (so-called ban yai) to consolidate voter support and secure electoral advantages. This strategy is not new; it largely replicates the party’s approach in previous elections, particularly in its Northern strongholds.

The North remains a key battleground of national-level politics, where locally elected politicians affiliated with the Pheu Thai Party have played a significant supporting role in the campaign. These local actors have assisted the party by facilitating access to campaign venues, publicly endorsing candidates, and functioning as vote canvassers.

The Pheu Thai Party has faced several setbacks following its decision to form a coalition with the Palang Pracharath Party and other parties after the 2023 election, a move that left the Move Forward Party largely isolated despite winning the most parliamentary seats. Move Forward was ultimately relegated to the opposition. The Pheu Thai-led government unravelled in August 2025 due to the controversy surrounding an alleged leaked conversation between Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Cambodian former prime minister and influential political figure Hun Sen, as well as delays in delivering several major campaign promises. Despite all this, Pheu Thai’s political campaign in the Northern Region has remained intensive and evidently quite effective.

Pheu Thai in this election has focused on Bangkok, the Northeast, and the Northern Region. In the North, Lamphun and Chiang Mai were selected as the first two provinces for political activities by the party’s prime ministerial candidate, Professor Yodchanan Wongsawat, a nephew of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and a former vice president of Mahidol University.

On 9 January 2026, Yodchanan delivered a major speech at a large public garden administered by the Chiang Mai Provincial Administrative Organisation, whose leadership supports the Pheu Thai Party. Yodchanan spoke briefly in the Northern dialect before switching to a Central Thai accent to help the media and press better understand him. He presented himself as “a son of the people of Chiang Mai,” referring to his mother’s roots in the province. Yodchanan stated that he hoped to see all ten constituencies in Chiang Mai return to the Pheu Thai Party. He also highlighted the history and legacy of the Thai Rak Thai Party, founded by Thaksin, highlighting its flagship policies, such as the universal health care scheme. He repeatedly emphasised that although the party’s name has changed over time, Pheu Thai has retained its core commitment to the people. Although the speech lasted only about ten minutes, it was symbolically significant in that all three of Pheu Thai’s prime ministerial candidates appeared together on stage (Thailand’s constitution allows each party to nominate up to three candidates). 

The 2026 General Election represents a comeback attempt for the Pheu Thai Party, particularly in the Upper Northern Region, where the party aims to reclaim constituencies lost in the 2023 election.

Beyond visits by the party’s prime ministerial candidates to Chiang Mai and other northern provinces, Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s two-day campaign presence in Chiang Mai on 24-25 January 2026, alongside the Pheu Thai candidate in Constituency 1, further underscored the party’s strategic emphasis on the Northern Region. Her high visibility in key public spaces contrasted sharply with the comparatively limited public response to the People’s Party candidate campaigning in the same area, highlighting disparities in mobilisation capacity and symbolic appeal.

In the Northern Region, among Pheu Thai candidates who lost in the 2023 General Election, 15 have chosen to remain with the party and will contest the 2026 election under the Pheu Thai banner, while 13 unsuccessful candidates have defected to other parties. Only one Pheu Thai MP elected in 2023, Tossaporn Serirak, has defected to the New Opportunity Party, where he is now serving as the party’s prime ministerial candidate. Overall, in the North, approximately 20 per cent of former Pheu Thai candidates and MPs elected in 2023 have joined other political parties. Another 20 per cent of former Pheu Thai candidates from 2023 are no longer contesting the 2026 General Election. The remaining 60 per cent have chosen to compete in the 2026 election under the Pheu Thai banner, with about three of them appearing on the party’s proportional representation list.

Taken together, these figures challenge the prevailing public perception that Pheu Thai has experienced a severe outflow of political elites, often described as lueat lai (bleeding). While such a perception may hold some validity among candidates who failed to secure seats in previous elections and subsequently sought better prospects elsewhere, the statistical evidence suggests a different pattern. Those elected in 2023 have largely remained loyal to the party, indicating that Pheu Thai continues to serve as a political “comfort zone” for its elected representatives, despite broader narratives portraying the party as being in decline.

The 2026 General Election represents a comeback attempt for the Pheu Thai Party, particularly in the Upper Northern Region, where the party aims to reclaim constituencies lost in the 2023 election. However, even in the Upper North, the Kla Tham Party has aggressively entered key constituencies. At the same time, the Bhumjaithai Party is expected to gain support in the Lower North and is likely to perform strongly in the party-list vote. Consequently, Pheu Thai faces competition not only from the People’s Party but also from other opposition parties. It remains to be seen whether Pheu Thai will consolidate and expand its popularity in the period leading up to the election.

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