Riau Islands 2024 Gubernatorial Election: Decisive Win Despite Low Voter Turnout

On 27 November 2024, the Riau Islands (Kepri) province conducted simultaneous regional head elections (Pilkada) with the rest of Indonesia’s provinces. Ansar Ahmad, the popular incumbent, beat Muhammad Rudi, the ex-officio head of the Indonesia Free Trade Zone Authority (Badan Pengusahaan Batam) and bagged the Kepri governor’s race. Several factors contributed to the outcome, including the controversial Rempang eco-city project, welfare issues for civil servants and workers, as well as a rift within the National Democrat (Nasdem) Party’s local elite, which supported Rudi.

The official results released by the General Elections Commission (KPU) showed a convincing win for the incumbent, with 55.1 per cent of the votes won (Table 1). This result showed an increase in Ansar’s popularity compared to the 2020 election, in which he got 40.0 per cent of the votes. 

Strong Win by Incumbent

Table 1. Kepri’s Election Results (by district), 2024

	Ansar-Nyanyang		Rudi-Rafiq
	Number of votes	Percentage	Number of votes	Percentage
Batam	217,967	51.7	203,620	48.3
Tanjungpinang	55,063	58.6	38,930	41.4
Bintan	41,109	56.6	31,503	43.4
Karimun	49,774	48.5	52,899	51.5
Lingga	35,640	68.0	16,736	32.0
Anambas	18,372	65.8	9,565	34.2
Natuna	32,367	69.9	13,969	30.1
Total Kepri	450,292	55.1	367,222	44.9

Ansar won in part thanks to the coalition which had backed him. He ran with the former chairman of President Prabowo Subianto’s Gerindra Party in Batam, Nyanyang Haris Pratamura. The Ansar-Nyanyang pair was supported by the Koalisi Indonesia Maju (KIM), which supports Prabowo and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS). Against them, Rudi ran with the former regent of Karimun, Aunur Rafiq. The Rudi-Rafiq pair was supported by seven parties: Nasdem, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI), Hanura, the Workers’ Party, the Crescent and Star Party (PBB), and Partai Kebangkitan Nusantara (PKN).

Ansar-Nyanyang won six out of seven regions in Kepri. The pair lost only in Karimun, where Rafiq is the incumbent regent. The number of “golput”, or those who did not cast their votes, was high, reaching 47.6 per cent for all of Kepri. This golput rate is much higher compared to the golput rate in the 2020 gubernatorial election, which was about 33.4 per cent. Key areas like Batam, Bintan, Karimun, and Tanjungpinang showed significant numbers of voters who abstained (Table 2).

Voter turnout in the November 2024 Kepri elections was much lower than that for the presidential election (PE) in February 2024 (Figure 1). Only 52.4 per cent of Kepri voters participated, a sharp decrease from the 78.1 per cent who voted in the PE (Table 2).

Figure 1: Kepri – Registered Voters and Turnout Rate, Presidential vs. Governor’s (Regional) Elections, 2024

Voter Apathy

Table 2. Number of Votes vs “Golput” in Kepri’s Election Results (by district), 2024

	Ansar-Nyanyang vote share (in %)	Rudi-Rafiq vote share (in %)	Voters who did not vote (in %)	Total
Batam	24.2	22.6	53.1	100.0
Tanjungpinang	32.0	22.6	45.4	100.0
Bintan	32.4	24.9	42.7	100.0
Karimun	25.6	27.2	47.2	100.0
Lingga	48.1	22.6	29.3	100.0
Anambas	52.3	27.2	20.5	100.0
Natuna	56.2	24.2	19.6	100.0
Total Kepri	28.9	23.5	47.6	100.0%

According to the KPU, the significant decline in voter turnout (Table 2) was caused by, among other things, high rainfall in several areas of the Riau Islands on voting day. The Rudi-Rafiq team, however, blamed the poor distribution of voters list (Daftar Pemilih Tetap or DPT) as the main factor behind their loss, especially in Batam.

Another possible factor was the lack of policy differentiation between the candidates. Ansar-Nyanyang campaigned to improve the people’s welfare, especially for state civil servants (ASN) and non-ASN workers. Rudi-Rafiq campaigned to expand Batam’s successful development model to other regions. Both teams supported national government programmes such as accelerating the free trade zone in Batam-Bintan-Karimun (BBK), and promoting new Special Economic Zones (SEZs) and National Strategic Projects (PSNs).

Relocation and compensation offers were largely rejected by the residents, whose villages are situated on land designated as a new special industrial zone.

Rempang eco-city, a PSN, became a special campaign issue. Former president Joko Widodo initiated the project in 2023, in a bid to attract more Chinese investment. The project caused conflict with the local community whose homes and livelihoods were affected by the relocation plan, and thus became a hot-button issue during the campaign. Ansar had promised to accommodate the demands of the Rempang community and implement the project in stages. He also promised to work with the Batam mayor and other stakeholders to find good solutions for investors and residents. During the public debate, he criticised Rudi for ignoring the provincial governor in Rempang’s development, which caused some clashes with Malay residents. Rudi hit back by questioning Ansar’s commitment to continue the project.

On 11 September 2024, demonstrators protested outside the Batam Indonesia Free Zone Authority (BP Batam), demanding that authorities stop the project. They threw bottles, rocks and Molotov cocktails. Relocation and compensation offers were largely rejected by the residents, whose villages are situated on land designated as a new special industrial zone.

Arguably, the Rempang issue adversely affected Rudi’s electability more, especially among the Malay community in Batam. BP Batam, under Rudi’s leadership, had received strong public criticism regarding its policy on relocation and compensation to local communities in Rempang. Their approach seemed overly coercive and not persuasive. It was only exacerbated by poor communication.

Another factor that determined Ansar-Nyanyang’s victory was their campaign promise to improve the welfare of workers, whether they were ASN or not. In 2023, Ansar had increased the salaries of non-ASN workers from 2.4 million rupiah (US$146) to 2.5 million rupiah (US$152). In early 2024, Ansar promised to increase the ASN income allowance. Meanwhile, Rudi campaigned for a simple and disciplined lifestyle without improving welfare entitlements. He urged ASN to be neutral as he thought they might take sides in the pilkada (regional head election). This apparently backfired and weakened Rudi’s electability among ASNs.

While the KIM Plus coalition was solid, there was a split in the local political elite of Nasdem. The party elite was divided in the Batam and Lingga regions, which are the bases of Nasdem voters. Amsakar (chair of the Batam branch) and Nizar (chair of the Lingga branch) supported Ansar-Nyanyang instead of Rudi-Rafiq, apparently because Rudi did not support Amsakar’s candidacy as mayor of Batam.

The Kepri election showed worrying signs of low voter turnout and increased political apathy among Kepri’s residents. However, Ansar-Nyanyang’s victory in the Batam City area, which is Rudi’s base, shows that the unhappiness over the Rempang project and workers’ welfare were quite decisive for many voters. As an incumbent governor, Ansar’s victory means most existing national programmes, such as BBK FTZ, SEZs and PSNs, would get priority. But he will soon face difficulty negotiating with the Rempang community to ensure fair compensation and a smooth relocation process.

2025/30