Thai General and Premier Learns the Ropes as a Full-fledged Politician

Thai Prime Minister General Prayut Chan-o-cha has had a storied career as the country’s highest-ranking military officer. As prime minister, he has often displayed open disdain towards the country’s parliamentarians and has stayed aloof from internecine party politics. With general elections looming, however, General Prayut has morphed into a full-fledged politician who is not averse to doling goodies and jumping into political scraps with his adversaries.

In January, General Prayut joined the United Thai Nation (UTN) Party, a new entity founded in March 2021. Since then, he has been working hard to boost his popularity in order to retain the premiership in the upcoming general election.

One of his tactics is to claim political credit for the work done by his administration, which has been in power since June 2019. On 7 March, the Prayut-led Cabinet said it would increase the monthly allowance for local health volunteers from 1,500 baht (S$58) to 2,000 baht. The raise will take effect in the next financial year starting 1 October and benefit about 1.06 million health volunteers nationwide.

Another tactic is spending government money at the local level. On 3 March, the prime minister announced a pay raise for all heads and members of 5,300 local community councils nationwide, starting in the next financial year. The pay raise will benefit about 400,000 local officials.

General Prayut has even promised to support elevating appropriate local tambon sub-districts into municipalities so that they can collect more local taxes. This is music to the ears of tambon leaders.

On another front,the political competition has led to a parting of ways between General Prayut and his “Big Brother”, General Prawit Wongsuwan.

In 2019, General Prayut won the premiership under the Palang Pracharat Party (PPP) ticket. But he has parted ways with PPP leader General Prawit after the latter aimed his sights on the premiership.

General Prayut undercut General Prawit after the latter sought political credit for his efforts as the first deputy prime minister in charge of water resources and land reform. General Prayut countered that General Prawit was merely supervising the implementation of government policy laid down by him. 

When General Prawit promised to increase the monthly subsidy for the poor from 600 to 700 baht, General Prayut upped the ante with a promise to increase the subsidy to 1,000 baht. General Prayut is quickly learning that populism in Thai politics pays.

The Prayut-Prawit rivalry underscores the conventional wisdom that Thai politicians have neither allies nor perpetual enemies; they only have permanent personal interests.

The rivalry between the two generals extends to Thaksin Shinawatra and the Pheu Thai Party, which is aligned with the exiled former premier. A rumour making its rounds in the media is that the chief opposition party will back General Prawit for the premiership. This might have been fuelled by General Prawit’s new campaign rhetoric about overcoming long-standing political polarisation.

General Prawit’s talk about national conciliation could indicate that he can work with Thaksin, who is deemed to be the puppet master behind Pheu Thai.    

The Prayut-Prawit rivalry underscores the conventional wisdom that Thai politicians have neither allies nor perpetual enemies; they only have permanent personal interests.

For General Prayut, his goal is to hold on to power, at least two more years until he reaches the end of the eight-year limit for the office of the premier in mid-2025. For General Prawit, his objective is to build up the political capital necessary to take the premiership (and at General Prayut’s expense if necessary).

Amid the rivalry, Thaksin is merely a pawn. Thaksin was deposed in a 2006 coup by the Thai military. In 2014, his sister Yingluck Shinawatra was brought down by another coup masterminded by General Prayut. Thaksin has been convicted in two corruption cases and sentenced in absentia to a combined jail term of 10 years.

General Prayut’s trump card is his power to dissolve the House of Representatives. He is expected to dissolve the House on 20 March — three days before the end of the four-year term of the House. Making the move on 21 March will be awkward, because it coincides with his 69^th birthday.

After dissolving the House, General Prayut will serve as the caretaker prime minister until a new prime minister is appointed. This will constitute a huge political advantage for him and the UTN during the election campaign, since General Prayut will retain the authority to transfer, promote and dismiss officials and military officers.

In the meantime, new parties such as the UTN have to step up the recruitment of MPs and veteran politicians from other parties to contest the upcoming general election. In order to qualify to put forth its candidate for the premiership, a party needs to win at least 25 House seats (or 5 per cent of the 500 House seats).

In the past, General Prayut used to show disdain towards MPs.  Now, however, the former general and coup mastermind has jumped into the fray to lure politicians into his camp.

The Election Commission has set the limit of election campaign expenditure for each candidate at 1.9 million baht (about S$73,000). But parties wanting to “buy” MPs have reportedly offered MPs 80-100 million baht (in the past, the “price” was several million baht). House Speaker Chuan Leekpai from the Democrat Party has complained that a senior MP from his party has defected to join General Prayut’s UTN Party. He had allegedly been promised 200 million baht for his election campaign in return for delivering all seven House seats in the southern province of Surat Thani to the UTN. The ex-Democrat veteran in question has denied the allegation.

After General Prayut dissolves the House, there will be more hectic horse trading between desperate parties and enterprising politicians.

The rationale is straightforward: General Prayut’s popularity alone is not enough. His UTN party needs good candidates to win House seats. The former general is fast finding out that conducting field exercises and election campaigns are as different as night and day.

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