Thailand Faces Growing Instability with Paetongtarn’s Intransigence

Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s credibility has been destroyed by her naivety and carelessness, as shown in the leak of her “private conversation” on 15 June with Hun Sen, President of the Cambodian Senate. Her decision to soldier on despite calls for her resignation is self-centred and futile.

Sooner rather than later, she can be forced out of office if found guilty of serious unethical behaviour.

In the audio clip leaked by the Cambodian side, Paetongtarn was heard begging for assistance from Hun Sen to cope with her “worst ever” political crisis arising from the growing Thai-Cambodian border tensions.

To placate Hun Sen, she belittled Lt Gen Boonsin Padklang, commander of Thailand’s Second Army Region, in charge of the northern sector of the border. She told Hun Sen, whom she called “uncle”, that the commander was the “opposite of us”.

“Just tell me what ‘uncle’ wants, and I will see to it,” she told Hun Sen via a Cambodian interpreter who speaks fluent Thai.

Hun Sen later disclosed that he had recorded the 17-minute conversation and shared the recording with 80 senior Cambodian officials and senators. Since then, he has also threatened to reveal secrets about Paetongtarn and her father, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, if either of them continued to upset him on the Thai-Cambodia border problem.

Paetongtarn has apologised privately to Lt Gen Boonsin. She has also apologised to the Thai people for the leak but not for how she ingratiated herself with Hun Sen.

Bhumjaithai (BJT), the second-largest governing party with 69 Members of Parliament (MPs), seized the opportunity to score political credit by announcing its withdrawal from the ruling coalition, effective 19 June. The party, it must be noted, had already been preparing to leave the Pheu Thai (PT)-led ruling coalition because Paetongtarn was planning to transfer BJT leader Anutin Charnvirakul from the influential interior minister post in an imminent cabinet reshuffle.   

The party has demanded that Paetongtarn take full responsibility for damaging national pride. It is now seeking the support of the People’s Party, the lead opposition party with 142 MPs, to initiate a no-confidence motion against Paetongtarn when the House of Representatives opens for a new session on 3 July.

Senate President Mongkon Surasatja, widely perceived to be pro-BJT, has petitioned the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) to investigate Paetongtarn for dereliction of duty. He has also requested the Constitutional Court to rule on whether she still has the full qualification to head the government. In his formal complaint, he characterised as “treason” Paetongtarn’s alleged attempt to curry favour with Hun Sen.

(The ruling) Pheu Thai (party) now leads a coalition of 10 diverse parties collectively holding a total of 256 seats in the 495-member House, giving it a mere eight-seat majority.

The petition, coming from the Senate president, carries more political weight than similar petitions from other activists.

The Constitutional Court is expected to consider the petition at its meeting on 1 July. If it accepts the petition for further deliberation, it may suspend Paetongtarn from the premiership.

Meanwhile, public pressure is mounting. A demonstration in Bangkok, organised by several prominent activists on 28 June, drew thousands of people, demanding that Paetongtarn resign. If the Constitutional Court on 1 July accepts petitions against Paetongtarn for further deliberation and suspends her from the premiership, protest leaders will increase pressure, with a possible march to Government House.

Paetongtarn’s intransigence may be due to concern for the well-being of her embattled father. Thaksin is facing an inquiry in the Supreme Court for his “hospital gambit” and a trial in the Criminal Court for an alleged violation of the lese majeste law, which will start in early July. If found guilty in either case, he will face a jail term.

Paetongtarn herself is mired in a legal quagmire, with the NACC investigating several petitions against her. Apart from the accusation of treason, two other serious cases are her alleged unlawful holding of shares in Alpine Golf Resort and her use in 2016 of promissory notes without payment dates to “pay” for 4.4 billion baht (US$135 million) worth of shares from family members, which allowed her to avoid about 218 million baht in taxes.

In the meantime, Paetongtarn’s premiership faces serious political uncertainty.

With 142 MPs, PT now leads a coalition of 10 diverse parties, collectively holding 256 seats in the 495-member House, giving it a mere eight-seat majority.

The survival of Paetongtarn’s premiership is now at the mercy of three major coalition partners: Kla Tham (26 MPs), United Thai Nation (36 MPs), and the Democrat Party (25 MPs). The latter two are unstable because of chronic infighting.

It is unlikely that any of these coalition partners will defect to the opposition as they would want to continue enjoying a share of the spoils of office while they can. But if they believe the government will fall soon and do pre-emptively defect, Paetongtarn’s coalition will lose its majority in the House. In that case, she may be unseated in a no-confidence motion.

Despite mounting pressures, Paetongtarn has dismissed the option of dissolving the House and calling an early general election, which is not due until mid-2027.

PT wants to benefit from dictating the legislation of the budget bill for the next fiscal year, which starts on 1 October.

More significantly, PT is not yet ready to face the more popular People’s Party in an early general election so soon. After two years in power, PT has yet to deliver any of its major campaign promises. In a new public poll by the National Institute of Development Administration released on 29 June, PT fell to third place, with only 11.52 per cent popularity, far behind the People’s Party in first place with 46.08 per cent. 

Both Paetongtarn and PT are running out of time.

2025/217