Will Move Forward Party’s Dissolution Cause Another Wave of Youth-led Protests in Thailand?

On 7 August 2024, the Thai Constitutional Court announced its unanimous decision to dissolve the Move Forward Party (MFP). The last dissolution of a popular progressive party in 2020 kicked off a large youth-led pro-democracy movement that lasted months. However, a similar response this time around seems unlikely.

MFP won both the popular vote and the largest number of seats in the May 2023 general election. Despite this victory, the party was blocked from forming a government. A year after the election, the Constitutional Court ruled that MFP’s campaign policy to amend Thailand’s lèse-majesté law could be construed as undermining the monarchy for political gain and was therefore unconstitutional. This warranted the party’s dissolution as well as a ban on its executives from politics for ten years. This commentary does not analyse the court’s decision or its political implications but rather aims to point out that a group of actors has been missing from the main political stage in the aftermath of MFP’s dissolution: the Thai youth.

The relatively quiet response from the Thai youth is noteworthy for several reasons. MFP and its former leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, who led the party to victory in 2023, were especially popular among young Thais. More importantly, the dissolution of MFP is largely a rerun of another watershed episode in Thai politics from 2020. MFP’s predecessor, the Future Forward Party, was dissolved and its executive committee members barred from politics, after unexpectedly strong election results. Most of the members of parliament from Future Forward moved to MFP, which became the successor of Future Forward’s progressive policies.

Yet, a more significant consequence of Future Forward’s dissolution lies beyond party politics. As Future Forward and its leader Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit were extremely popular among young people, its dissolution was often credited as one of the triggers for the 2020 student-led pro-democracy protests. Indeed, on the night of Future Forward’s dissolution, “flash” rallies were held across various university campuses, which later snowballed into large-scale protests.  

So, if this is indeed a rerun, should we expect another round of national protests, perhaps with similar fervour and fiery rhetoric as those from 2020? It seems quite unlikely.

…should we expect another round of national protests, perhaps with similar fervour and fiery rhetoric as those from 2020? It seems quite unlikely.

A comparison of the immediate responses to the two dissolutions shows a much more subdued reaction this time. Students have tended to opt for symbolic on-campus actions rather than taking to the streets, such as law students walking out of classes taught by a Constitutional Court judge.  While multiple student groups announced “flash protests” on campuses, such as at Thammasat, Chulalongkorn, and Chiangmai, they were much smaller than those from 2020. Similarly, though MFP invited supporters to their headquarters on the day of the ruling, the crowd was described as “small”. It seems that the drive to protest has largely died down among young Thai people. This can be explained by a few factors.

A commonly cited reason is that the student movement has been gutted by the same justice system that dissolved MFP. The leaders that emerged from the 2020 protests have been charged, jailed, seemingly fled the country, or died tragically in custody. With such losses, it was hard for the movement to sustain its momentum. It should be noted that some of the energy was already lost in 2021, when the government under Prayut Chan-ocha responded with increasingly violent measures. After one death and permanent injuries to several protesters, the state has succeeded in deterring many people from attending rallies.

Another reason might simply be because this was a “rerun episode” – a reused plot is simply less shocking to the audience. Though Thailand’s Constitutional Court has a habit of dissolving political parties, the dissolution of Future Forward likely came as a shock to many of its supporters. In contrast, MFP’s dissolution was already somewhat anticipated after a January 2024 ruling that proposals to amend the lèse-majesté law were equivalent to an attempt to overthrow the monarchy. As it was a less surprising verdict, not as many people and students were motivated to join the various protests.

Other reasons can be traced to the 2023 election. Many young people were likely disillusioned by the results, after MFP were unable to form a government. Another less discussed factor is that the 2020 pro-democracy coalition, which included supporters of Pheu Thai Party, somewhat fell apart in 2023. Pheu Thai is itself a successor of two dissolved parties and in 2020 issued a statement of sympathy to Future Forward. Several prominent Pheu Thai-affiliated people were often present at the 2020 protests. After the 2023 election, Pheu Thai was the second largest party. However, Pheu Thai is blamed for breaking the coalition with MFP to form a government with pro-establishment parties. This caused an irreparable rift between supporters of the two parties; the Pheu Thai faction of the 2020 pro-democracy protest is unlikely to show up to rallies supporting MFP now that their political objectives have diverged. It thus seems unlikely that a repeat of the 2020 phenomenon will happen.

Though the Thai establishment has arguably succeeded in crushing the youth’s motivation to take to the streets, it is unable to quell the dissatisfaction of MFP’s 14 million voters, a significant portion of whom were young people. Their lack of protests now does not necessarily signal apathy or fatigue – perhaps they will choose to strategically express their political frustration through the ballot box and other formal channels which pose less risk of violence and jailtime. After all, when Future Forward was dissolved, MFP more than doubled its voter base. A successor party, People’s Party, has already been formed. Within less than a week, it boasts more than 46,000 members and has received more than 23 million baht in donations (about US$650,000). Whether the new party can replicate MFP’s success in the next election, when even more young people will be eligible to vote, remains to be seen.

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