Why the Russia-Ukraine War Continues to Fret Southeast Asia

Two years after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 22 February 2022, the impact of the war on global energy and food prices helps to explain why the conflict remains a prominent concern for Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam.

According to the State of Southeast Asia 2024, the Russia-Ukraine war is among the region’s top geopolitical concerns. The Israel-Hamas conflict ranks first (46.5 per cent), China’s aggression in the South China Sea second (33.9 per cent), and the Russia-Ukraine War and global scam operations joint third (33.4 per cent).

The inter-state war in Europe even trumps the ongoing civil war in Myanmar (26.6 per cent) and tensions in the Taiwan Strait (7.6 per cent), both of which have a more direct bearing on the region’s security.

Perhaps more surprisingly, the Russia-Ukraine war is the top geopolitical concern for Laos (61.9 per cent) and Cambodia (57.7 per cent), and second for Vietnam (67 per cent) — not far behind the country’s fractious maritime territorial dispute with China in the South China Sea (72.5 per cent).

Why, more than two years after Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, is the war still such a prominent concern, especially for the three mainland Southeast Asian states?

The Survey confirms that the region’s top concern remains the war’s impact on food and energy prices — 68.4 per cent — ten per cent higher than in 2023.

The conflict continues to disrupt global food and energy markets because Russia is one of the world’s top oil and gas producers, while Russia and Ukraine are major exporters of wheat and sunflower oil, both of which are staples in Southeast Asia. Wheat is a key ingredient in the production of noodles, while sunflower oil is widely used for cooking. Russia is also one of the world’s largest exporters of fertilisers, which are vital in crop production, including rice.

There is a close connection between energy and food prices: natural gas is used in the production of fertilisers, while oil is used to transport food by land, sea and air.

When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, oil prices surged, and wheat exports from Ukraine were suspended due to Russian attacks on the country’s ports in the Black Sea.

The price of oil has since retreated to pre-war levels, and Ukraine has resumed exports of wheat by destroying one-third of Russia’s Black Sea fleet and routing its grain carriers through the territorial waters of NATO-friendly countries such as Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey.

Yet both energy and food markets continue to fluctuate, fuelling food insecurity concerns, as reflected in the Survey.

In contrast, concerns that Russia’s invasion had eroded the rules-based international order have dropped (from 25.9 per cent in 2023 to 14.5 per cent in 2024), as well as concerns over whether the conflict would exacerbate divisions within ASEAN (from 7.4 per cent to 4.4 per cent).

The conflict continues to disrupt global food and energy markets because Russia is one of the world’s top oil and gas producers, while Russia and Ukraine are major exporters of wheat and sunflower oil, both of which are staples in Southeast Asia.

Among the ten ASEAN member states, why are Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam so vexed about the war?

Vietnam and Laos have adopted very different stances from Cambodia. Due to their decades-old friendship harking back to the Cold War, Hanoi and Vientiane have refrained from criticising Moscow for invading Ukraine. Both countries have abstained from all United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) votes condemning Russian aggression. 

In contrast, Hun Sen, Cambodia’s prime minister at the time of the invasion, has been highly critical of the Kremlin’s use of military force against Ukraine, and ordered the country’s diplomats in New York to co-sponsor the UNGA resolutions.

All three countries have lucrative agricultural sectors. Their concerns about the impact of the war on food and energy prices have risen significantly: 86.3 per cent for Laos (up from 52.3 per cent in 2023), 73.5 per cent for Vietnam (up from 58.8 per cent) and 68.8 per cent for Cambodia (up from 52.3 per cent).

None of the three countries are major importers of Ukrainian wheat. Before the invasion, only 6 per cent of Vietnam’s wheat was sourced from Ukraine compared to 26 per cent for Indonesia. But they all use fertilisers from Russia, which has reduced exports since the start of the war (thus raising worldwide prices). This has hit Vietnam and Cambodia hard, the world’s third and eighth largest rice exporters, respectively. Both countries have had to source fertilisers from other countries.

Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia import very little Russian oil, but the three countries have all suffered from fluctuations in the global price of energy, especially Laos, which is suffering from severe economic problems.

Other factors may also have contributed to Vietnam and Laos’ angst. As the ISEAS survey reveals, they rank Russia’s strategic importance to the region much higher than the other ASEAN members. Among ASEAN’s 11 dialogue partners, Laos ranked Russia an astonishing third (behind the US and China), while Vietnam ranked it a healthy fifth (after the US, China, Japan and the EU). That the war has damaged Russia’s reputation around the world appears to concern policymakers in Vietnam and Laos. Moreover, as both countries’ media report the war extensively, the conflict is very much on their minds.

Cambodia, on the other hand, has mixed feelings about Moscow’s support for the Vietnamese occupation in the 1980s and ranked Russia only eighth among the 11 dialogue partners.

Phnom Penh seems more concerned about the impact the war has on Sino-US rivalry, and how small states can navigate it. In the 2024 survey, 9.5 per cent of Cambodians identified this as their second most important concern associated with the conflict, up from 5.2 per cent in 2023 and above the 8.2 per cent ASEAN average. Over the past few years, Cambodia has been in the middle of a dispute between the US and China over the Ream Naval base and whether China’s naval presence at the facility is permanent (Cambodia insists it is not).

Although the Russia-Ukraine war appears to have reached a stalemate, its impact on food and energy prices, as well as global supply chains, continues to have ripple effects around the world. With no prospect of the war ending anytime soon, Southeast Asians will continue to fret.

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