Malaysia’s  “Dubai Move”: Nothing to See Here, For Now

The new year has just begun, yet Malaysia’s political drama continues. Politicians from the ruling Unity Government (UG) and the opposition Perikatan Nasional (PN) have issued statements either confirming or denying attempts to topple the Anwar Ibrahim government. Deputy Prime Minister Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, also United Malays National Organization (UMNO) President, revealed that he knew about the so-called Dubai Move. Several MPs were rumoured to have flown to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) for the unseating of the prime minister. Even Ismail Yusop, the deputy director-general of the government’s Community Communications Department (J-Kom), verified that the meeting happened. According to the scuttlebutt, the objective of the meeting was to assign specific duties to brokers to identify potential government MPs who could switch allegiance.

The details of the Dubai Move — who instigated it, the proposed timeline, and execution — remain a mystery. So far, a number of police reports have been made across 12 states, according to an aide to the prime minister. Senior UMNO leader and former prime minister Ismail Sabri Yaacob denied any involvement. While he did travel to the Middle East recently, he was performing the umrah (mini pilgrimage) in Saudi Arabia. By contrast, Mohamad Hasan — Ismail’s senior party colleague, UMNO deputy president and foreign minister — sidestepped the question when asked by reporters for comments during a traditional Malaysian fashion event. Tok Mat, as he is affectionately called, is said to be a potential prime minister candidate if Anwar steps down. Previously the defence minister, many considered his appointment as foreign minister in the last cabinet reshuffle a demotion.

In Malaysia, MPs switching allegiance happens regularly. Between 2020 and 2022, the government changed hands three times due to MPs crossing the floor. The passing of an anti-hopping law in October 2022 did not prevent such discussions. The law seeks to prevent a repeat of the 2020 Sheraton Move, which saw the toppling of a PH government after a key party left the ruling coalition. The law seeks to prevent lawmakers from switching party allegiance, which would upset voters’ electoral mandate. However, the law is not without limitations: it allows parties to move en-bloc and search for new coalition partners. MPs can also retain their seats if expelled from their parties, and even move to another.

Whether the Dubai Move is real or imagined, the fact remains that Malays may welcome a government change through the front door (genuine electoral process) or the back door (crossovers) if their anxieties are left unchecked

Last November, four opposition MPs from Bersatu declared their support for the prime minister, despite them not being expelled from the PN component party. The Bersatu MPs case differs from Syed Saddiq’s decision to withdraw support for Anwar. Saddiq’s move can be interpreted as representing a party’s decision to switch allegiance, which is allowed. He is the Malaysian United Democratic Alliance’s (MUDA’s) only MP in parliament.

The Bersatu MPs’ switch of allegiance means that Anwar commands a two-thirds majority support in Parliament, the first time for a Malaysian PM since 2008. He now has 151 MPs supporting him out of the 222 seats. The prime minister endorsed the crossover of support and is confident more could follow suit. For now, this development should be able to forestall any machinations related to the Dubai Move.

The bigger issue is whether Malaysians (especially the Malays) are in the mood for another backdoor government. Many of them are struggling with the high cost of living, the weak economy, and unemployment. But they have not indicated any strong reactions to the Dubai Move speculation.

Yet, if the Unity Government continues to neglect the anxieties of the people, the momentum may be strong enough that they might endorse a change of government. Within one year since taking power, Anwar’s popularity ratings have plummeted from 68 per cent to 50 per cent. While Malaysians are generally pleased with his handling of the economy, his management of race and religious relations remains wanting. The Tanjung Piai by-election in 2019 remains fresh in many people’s minds. Barisan Nasional reclaimed the seat from PH with a huge margin. Then, the Mahathir-led PH government was struggling with race and religious issues, and the perception of a Chinese-dominant Democratic Action Party (DAP) calling the shots in the government. The election was a pre-cursor to Muhyiddin Yassin pulling Bersatu out from PH, citing the Malays’ declining support, and the Sheraton Move followed.

In addition, the DAP continues to repeat the same mistakes that led to PH’s downfall in March 2020. DAP MP Ngeh Koo Ham has suggested that a non-Muslim legal expert be included in a special committee at the federal level to strengthen the Syariah court system. Earlier, DAP veteran Lim Kit Siang remarked during a dialogue with Malaysian students in the United Kingdom that the Constitution does not exclude non-Malays from becoming prime ministers. These trip-ups by DAP fall into PN’s playbook, which is bent on exacerbating racial and religious tensions. By doing so, PN, especially PAS, recorded its best electoral performance in the country’s history in the last general and state elections.

It should be noted that the timing of the Dubai Move speculation is linked to the imminent rotation of the Kingship. The current Agong from Pahang is due to make way to the Johor Sultan at the end of January. The Pahang Sultan has overseen four prime ministers during his reign, and has the experience of managing political crisis of backdoor governments. By contrast, the Johor Sultan has always called for political stability, and is unlikely to entertain a change of government in the early part of his leadership. In the eyes of Dubai Move sympathizers, the current King may be easier to convince than his successor. Even then, why should the current King entertain such requests during his final days in office?

Whether the Dubai Move is real or imagined, the fact remains that Malays may welcome a government change through the front door (genuine electoral process) or the back door (crossovers) if their anxieties are left unchecked. The Unity Government should know that ultimately, outcomes matter: meeting their basic needs, guaranteeing their political and economic rights, and respecting religious identity. This would be the bulwark that would undergird their holding on to the reins of power.

2024/6