Race for Vietnam’s Top Job: New Candidates, Old Challenges

On 20 May, the National Assembly of Vietnam elected its Standing Vice Chair Tran Thanh Man as its new chair, replacing Vuong Dinh Hue, who resigned earlier this month. It is expected that today, the Assembly will start the procedure to elect Minister of Public Security To Lam as the new state president, filling the position left vacant since the departure of former President Vo Van Thuong in March. Since early 2023, Vietnam has been facing an unprecedented leadership crisis with a series of high-level dismissals and prosecutions. The election of Lam and Man is therefore seen as a step towards stabilising the system and providing a much-needed respite for the Party to focus on preparations for its 14th National Congress, which is due in less than two years. However, their election also adds complexity to the personnel issue at the Congress, particularly in selecting a potential replacement for General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong.

Trong, who is currently serving an unprecedented third term, is widely expected to step down in 2026 due to his advanced age and poor health. According to the CPV’s rules and norms, potential candidates for the position will be selected from the top four leaders ranked below him in the Party’s hierarchy. These include incoming President To Lam, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, National Assembly Chair Tran Thanh Man, and Standing Member of the CPV Secretariat Luong Cuong. Cuong, who also serves as the Head of the Political Department of the Vietnam People’s Army (VPA), was elected last week to replace Truong Thi Mai to head the Party’s Secretariat after Mai stepped down from the position due to corruption allegations.

Among the four potential candidates, To Lam stands out as a strong contender. His previous position as minister of public security gives him significant leverage over other officials, including Central Committee members. However, his success may ultimately depend on who his successor is. According to the CPV’s norms, the position should be held by a Politburo member. Last week, the Central Committee added four new members to the Politburo, but none of Lam’s deputies or allies were promoted. If one of his protégés or allies, such as Deputy Minister of Public Security Luong Tam Quang, is eventually appointed to succeed Lam, it will bolster his political prospects. However, if someone from a rival faction or someone he has no sway over is chosen, To Lam’s prospects may be in jeopardy.

Other leaders, including Trong, may also hesitate to support Lam’s bid for party chief due to his background in security. There are concerns that he may use the security apparatus to turn Vietnam into a “police state”, which could harm the country’s economic prospects and pose a threat to the Party’s survival. Additionally, no CPV politician with a background in police or security has ever been elected as the Party’s general secretary.

The second candidate, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, has emerged as one of the winners amid the political turmoil. While his potential competitors for the Party’s top position, especially Vuong Dinh Hue, have fallen victim to the anti-corruption campaign, Chinh has been able to survive the ruthless purge. Since 2021, Chinh has focused on improving his political standing by leading Vietnam through the challenge of the Covid-19 pandemic, attracting high-quality investments and driving economic growth, especially through infrastructure development.

However, there have been allegations about Chinh’s personal ties to Nguyen Thi Thanh Nhan, a businesswoman who has been convicted in absentia for multiple criminal offences related to bid rigging and bribery. These accusations may continue to hinder his political prospects. Additionally, Chinh’s background as a former deputy minister of public security before transitioning to a civilian role in 2011 may also work against him.

As a low-key leader from the Mekong Delta region, Tran Thanh Man has steadily climbed the ranks within the Party. But he has not gained widespread popularity. This is due to his previous appointments to relatively insignificant positions in Hanoi, such as president of the Vietnam Fatherland Front and vice chair of the National Assembly. Man’s most important advantage is his relatively young age (he was born in 1962). Come 2026, Lam and Cuong (both born in 1957) and Chinh (born in 1958) will be over 67 years old. The trio will need to seek an exemption to the age limit rule to be eligible for the general secretary position. However, being a southerner could work against Man as no leader from the South has ever been elected to the country’s top job. This, combined with his rather limited power base and unpopularity within the system, may therefore hinder Man’s chances of winning the position.

… none of the four potential candidates have a clear and definitive advantage over the others, leaving the question of who will succeed General Secretary Trong up in the air. It is highly probable that the ultimate decision will not be made until the eleventh hour before the Party’s 14th National Congress.

Last but not least, Luong Cuong may also emerge as a notable contender in the race. Due to his role as the VPA’s political commissar, he may align with General Secretary Trong’s preference for a successor who prioritises the protection of the Party’s political integrity and upholding Marxist-socialist principles. He has historical precedent on his side. In 1997, Le Kha Phieu, who held similar positions as Cuong’s, was elected as the Party’s general secretary. However, Cuong lacks experience in leadership roles at ministerial, provincial or central CPV department levels, which is one of the key criteria for the general secretary position.

The above analysis suggests that none of the four potential candidates have a clear and definitive advantage over the others, leaving the question of who will succeed General Secretary Trong up in the air. It is highly probable that the ultimate decision will not be made until the eleventh hour before the Party’s 14th National Congress. In the event that no consensus is reached, or if the Party’s norms and regulations are not worked around to allow for new contenders, the possibility of Trong remaining in power for another term cannot be entirely dismissed. Should this occur, it will undoubtedly raise serious concerns about the political future of Vietnam and the CPV itself.

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