Thai Netizens’ Reactions to Thaksin Shinawatra’s Parole: Keep Calm and Carry On

On 18 February 2024, former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra was allowed to return to his Bangkok home on parole, where he would serve the rest of his sentence for corruption-related crimes. When he first returned to Thailand in August 2023, he was immediately detained by the police but was transferred to the Police General Hospital the same day. The purported reason was that his “critical” health condition required close monitoring and care from medical professionals. From then until his release on parole, Thaksin has not spent a day in prison.

Media photos of him wearing a neck brace, a sling on his right arm, and a face mask, sitting next to his daughters as they left the hospital at dawn, went viral on social media. Criticism came from both conservative and progressive camps. Progressives such as the Move Forward Party (MFP) highlighted the double standards in Thailand’s judicial system and the lack of transparency surrounding Thaksin’s preferential treatment while conservative voices raised scepticism about his actual health condition. Some even suspected that Thaksin’s parole was evidence that the Pheu Thai Party (PTP) had struck a deal with pro-establishment elements to facilitate his “soft landing” in Thailand after 16 years in self-exile. This essentially meant abandoning the pro-democracy governing pact that included the MFP.

In general, Thai netizens greeted news of Thaksin’s parole with a certain measure of cynicism. The top ten posts on X (formerly known as Twitter) with the highest engagement and reach for the top trending hashtag #ทักษิณกลับบ้าน (author’s translation: “Thaksin returns home”) reflected a negative opinion of Thaksin. These posts expressed discontentment regarding how the whole thing was smoke and mirrors or insinuated that his parole was pre-arranged as part of some political deal. Those posting on X were generally sceptical about the severity of his health conditions, questioning whether it justified his parole and speculating that it was a sham. Similarly, the comment section of a Facebook post by The Standard, a popular Thai online news outlet, was filled with sarcastic netizens congratulating Thaksin and wishing him a speedy recovery, with the most-used emoji being a “haha” (smiley face), as shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1. The Standard’s post and netizens’ comments on the photo of Thaksin and his daughters as they left the Police Hospital

Interestingly, the pro-Thaksin/PTP camp seems not to be particularly active in trying to manage the negative narratives on social media. There were some reactions that appeared positive; however, it is difficult to distinguish a genuine “get well soon” sympathy post from sarcastic ones when they are written in Thai. For those who were more clearly sympathetic to Thaksin, their comments were not directed at countering the criticisms.

In terms of official communication, PTP has avoided posting anything Thaksin-related in any of their online platforms since his return to Thailand. In fact, the party’s most recent posts on Facebook had been about PM Srettha Thavisin’s scheduled visit to the northeast provinces and policy promises. Moreover, the top pro-Thaksin pages on Facebook have been low-key in their opinions regarding his parole. In fact, the most followed page “Dr. Thaksin Shinawatra Fanclub” (author’s translation), ดร. ทักษิณ ชินวัตร แฟนคลับ, with 292,000 followers, simply shared videos about Thaksin’s parole and his visit to Chiang Mai from news outlets without any captions. The second-most popular pro-Thaksin Facebook group with 144,000 members has paused its activities since 3 September 2023 without explanation.

Thaksin’s visit to Chiang Mai from 14-16 February seemed to have made his critics more cynical about the severity of his claimed ailments. He showed up with a neck brace one day but without one the next day. Once again, the mocking statements of “get well soon” were rampant on social media platforms. However, this attention on Thaksin appeared short-lived – the online buzz was overshadowed by the issue of Chiang Mai’s severe PM 2.5 haze. The online and offline talk was of not only Thaksin but also of how the haze brought PM Srettha and former MFP leader Pita Limchareonrat to town, sparking a debate about “How many prime ministers does Thailand have?”.

In general, Thai netizens greeted news of Thaksin’s parole with a certain measure of cynicism.

Last, the transience of netizens’ interest in Thaksin being on parole is noteworthy. Between 16 February 2024 (two days before his scheduled release) and 21 February, the number of mentions related to Thaksin skyrocketed by almost 9,500 per cent. This peaked on the day of his release and gradually declined as the days went on (Figure 2).

Figure 2. Number of mentions of Thaksin being on parole (keywords “Thaksin” and “#thaksinreturnshome”)

A similar trend can be observed when looking at netizens’ interest in Thaksin’s reappearance in Chiang Mai. This reflects that while the news might be of immediate interest to netizens, they perhaps found it unsurprising – treating it as the drama of the day and then moving on.

All in all, Thai netizens responded to Thaksin’s parole and re-emergence on Thailand’s political scene with nonchalance and a certain cynical acceptance. Few believed that Thaksin was genuinely seriously ill; most think political machinations were likely afoot to facilitate his release on parole. While not many approve of this situation, there seems to be little bandwidth or appetite for most Thais to engage in stronger political activism or agitation. The preferred Thai response, then, is to keep calm and carry on and quickly move on to the next piece of news du jour.

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