Social media movements such as the Milk Tea Alliance are tapping into discontent with the regional decline of democracy and fears about the rise of China as a hegemonic power.
Author Archives: blackbox
Unending Turmoil? Thailand’s Deep South Insurgency in 2021
The barriers to political accommodation in Southern Thailand remain many and formidable
The Democrat Party Split: Dynastic versus All-Party Politics
President Joko Widodo’s recent political gain comes at the cost of his predecessor.
Balanced Views Require Deeper Understanding of Middle Eastern Geopolitics
The recent detention of a 20-year Singaporean here under the Internal Security Act underscores the need for Muslims to differentiate the religious and geopolitical aspects of the long-running Arab-Israeli conflict.
Thailand’s Elected Junta: The Pluralistic Poverty of Phalang Pracharat
Thailand’s Phalang Pracharat Party is a “junta party” established as a proxy for the 2014-2019 junta and the military, It is specifically designed to sustain the power of the generals Prawit Wongsuwan, Prayut Chan-ocha and Anupong Paochinda. In Thailand itself, the party has become so well-entrenched that it will be a difficult task removing it from office. The party has also become a model for other militaries in Southeast Asia intent on institutionalising their power.
Bangsamoro Elections: Choosing Between Two Bad Options
The much-anticipated polls for the Philippines’ new Bangsamoro regional region has been in the works for more than two years. Given a slew of challenges, however, it might be better for them to be delayed.
Back to the Future? Possible Scenarios for Myanmar
In Myanmar, neither the military nor the protest movement can be certain of the ultimate outcome following the former’s overthrow of the country’s elected government on 1 February. Myanmar appears stuck in a scenario where the military and the protest movement are each attempting to steer the situation towards their optimal outcomes. A tipping point may occur in favour of either side, depending on the resources or support that it obtains, either from domestic or international actors.
Zahid’s Sources of Stress: The Clobbering of UMNO’s “Court Cluster”?
UMNO president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi is typically the embodiment of calm. Going forward, however, Zahid and his faction will have to hunker down to confront multiple challenges.
Covid-19 Economic Recovery: ASEAN’s Mixed Pattern
Half of the ASEAN members have contained the Covid-19 pandemic, but not Indonesia and The Philippines. Myanmar, Malaysia and Thailand are dealing with new waves of infection. For countries that have controlled local transmission of the virus, a V-shaped recovery looks likely. For the others, the possibility of a delayed or W-shaped recovery increases the longer reintroduced containment measures stay in place.
Jokowi’s Dilemma: Spirit Versus Sharia
President Jokowi Widodo’s cancellation of a presidential decree on alcohol investment underscores a long-running contestation between the powers of the state and sharia law.