Between Talks and Tensions: Why the South China Sea Won’t Stabilise in 2026
Sophie Wushuang Yi
Progress on the South China Sea dispute between the Philippines and China is in limbo, and likely to stay that way.

Sophie Wushuang Yi
Progress on the South China Sea dispute between the Philippines and China is in limbo, and likely to stay that way.
Lowell Bautista|Aries A. Arugay
The Philippines' arbitral victory in 2016, though rejected by China, has helped entrench the law of the sea as the region's principal framework for understanding and contesting maritime claims.
Zha Daojiong
As Southeast Asian countries ponder the use of nuclear power, China looks set to be a key player.
Stephen Olson
The US and China will prioritise stability amid internal economic pressures and global volatility — presenting more opportunity for Southeast Asia to diversify trade and investment beyond the superpowers.
Ian Storey
Faced with an energy crisis at home, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos has broached the idea of joint energy cooperation with China. The idea will not fly, for a variety of reasons.
Pham Ngoc Minh Trang|Tran le Duy
The 2016 arbitral ruling on the South China Sea has subtly shifted claimant states’ practices, a decade on.
Phan Xuan Dung
To Lam’s recent visit to China helps Vietnam to realise its national ambitions. Hanoi is mindful of the risks of such an engagement, which will need to be managed carefully.
Hoang Thi Ha
Vietnam’s tilt towards the use of Chinese-made COMAC aircraft represents more a calculated experiment than a strategic pivot.
Stephen Olson
China and the US have reasons to work together to tackle the scourge of cyberfraud in Southeast Asia. The problem, however, is that their geopolitical rivalry gets in the way.
Sophie Wushuang Yi
The US-led war against Iran has given Chinese military planners an insight into the challenges that the US would face in a similar conflict in the Indo-Pacific.