Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Harapan: Best Frenemies Forever

Eyebrows were raised and pulses quickened last month when the Negeri Sembilan state government teetered. Like some other states in Malaysia, Negeri Sembilan has been jointly run by Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Barisan Nasional (BN), which are the two key pillars in the national Unity Government. While some degree of order has been restored, the episode has raised questions about the solidity of the national coalition and whether the country will head to snap polls some 18 months ahead of the next general election.

Now that the storm has passed, national PH leaders stated that the Unity Government will remain intact “until the end of its term”. Zahid Hamidi, the BN supremo, has, for his part, been more equivocal. He has stated that BN is comfortable working with Unity Government members, but it is “almost certain” that his coalition would go solo in the next general election.

This indicates that a rupture is unlikely in the next few weeks. There is, however, an underlying strategic conundrum that has been straining the PH-BN partnership: the Melaka and Johor state elections. Polls in Melaka are due by late 2026 and Johor by early 2027. The crux of the matter is whether the two coalitions should contest the elections jointly — as they did in a cluster of state elections in August 2023 — or separately as they did in the 2022 general election. Should they contest jointly, the two coalitions will have to yield seats to each other. Yet should they decide to compete against each other in these state elections, it will make cohabitation at the national level awkward and campaigning at the state level schizophrenic.

Melaka and Johor are bastion states for the two coalitions, with both helming these governments in the past. At this point, BN is on the ascendant and controls the bulk of seats in both states. In the 2021 state election in Melaka, BN netted 21 out of 28 seats, and in the 2022 Johor election, they obtained 40 out of 56 seats. PH only won 5 seats in Melaka and 12 seats in Johor.

Table 1. BN Holds Sway in Two States

Table 2. Seats won in the Johor State Election (2022)

If PH and BN partner up in these states and adopt the standard incumbency principle, they would contest the seats they already hold and only share the seats that they lost. This amounts to two seats in Melaka and three in Johor being up for discussion. Even in the unlikely event that all these seats were given to PH, this would be unacceptably low.

Yet, this is only part of the story. The last elections for these states were held separately from national polls. When state and national elections are held concurrently, PH’s performance improves markedly. For example, in 2018 (excluding Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) which left PH in 2020), PH won 13 seats in Melaka and 28 in Johor. This is because PH does not have an extensive grassroots machinery that can mobilise supporters to come out to vote. Thus, it is more dependent on its base being motivated to turn out to vote, which they are more willing to do for national rather than local polls. Furthermore, PH supporters vote strategically and are happy to use state and by-elections (but not national polls) to signal displeasure. Last, Johor has many voters living and working in Singapore, who would be less likely to return to vote solely for a state election. In short, PH’s chances of bagging more seats in the two states are substantially higher if the state polls are held at the same time as the next general election.

In the end, it may be easier for PH and BN to contest against each other in these two states first, continue their lukewarm partnership at the federal level, and then keep options open for some sort of agreement to avoid competing in key seats in the next GE.

In contrast, BN can count on a disciplined party apparatus that mobilises and gets people out to vote — regardless of whether polls are state or national. Thus, BN would be better served by having these two state elections first to drum up momentum and show that the coalition is ‘back’ before heading to the general election. Given that BN is in power in both Melaka and Johor, it will decide the timing of these elections. This reasoning could have prompted BN in Johor to state that they would contest all 56 state seats, largely pre-empting any negotiated settlement with PH. Furthermore, this strategic distancing may seek to capitalise on voter discontent with the federal government.

In the event that BN decides to call elections in either state, PH may well tip the applecart and call a general election at the same time to boost its chances in those two states. Prime Minister and PH supremo Anwar Ibrahim stated this in response to BN’s Johor plans. Yet, even if BN decides to call for elections in Melaka and Johor, PH may be better served by delaying the general election until later this year or next. This gives the coalition more time to progress with promised deliverables such as the two-term limit for the prime minister and the separation of the offices of public prosecutor and attorney general. Furthermore, it would make sense to have polls after releasing the budget in October, so that Malaysians get a taste of federal largesse (to the extent that this is possible in today’s economic climate).

In the end, it may be easier for PH and BN to contest against each other in these two states first, continue their lukewarm partnership at the federal level, and then keep options open for some sort of agreement to avoid competing in key seats in the next GE. BN’s Zahid said as much when he stated that while BN would most likely go solo, “we should not dismiss the need for an understanding with other party coalitions”. In an era of uncertain parliamentary majorities, all options need to be kept open.

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