The Future of Thailand’s Move Forward Party in a Fluid Political Landscape

Thailand’s Move Forward Party (MFP)’s electoral success in 2023 showed the Thai public’s frustration over conservative elites and a willingness to embrace a better democratic future. Since Field Marshal Sarit Thanarat came to power in 1958 after staging a coup, Thai elites have promoted a “Thai-style” democracy, with the key pillars of “Nation, Religion, and King”. The late King Bhumibol Adulyadej’s perceived benevolence was often seen as a sharp contrast to the corrupt nature of elected politicians. However, recent inept governance under authoritarian and semi-authoritarian royalist-military regimes has made many Thais question the status quo, as exemplified by the youth protest movement in 2020-21.

Following that, prosecutions and arrests based on the lese majeste law (Article 112 of the Criminal Code) resumed after a pause between 2018 and 2020. Therefore, MFP attracted the support of younger voters by advocating changes to the lese majeste law, which prohibits defaming the monarchy. MFP’s goal was to promote open dialogue regarding the monarchy’s influence and the necessity of revising its privileges. However, when the party faces dissolution, MFP might backtrack on lese majeste reform for political survival.

The Constitutional Court has accepted the Electoral Commission’s petition to dissolve MFP over its lese majeste stance. The Court’s ruling has yet to take place. The National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) is separately investigating 44 current and former Members of Parliament (MPs) of MFP, including adviser Pita Limjaroenrat. If the NACC finds serious ethical violations, it must forward the case to the Supreme Court for Holders of Political Positions. If the Supreme Court rules against MFP, these implicated individuals will be ineligible to run for office or hold any political positions.

The surviving members of the MFP, drawing from the lessons learned during the Future Forward Party (FFP)’s time, have the potential to establish a fresh political party to continue their reform proposals. Non-disqualified MPs will retain their seats if they manage to join a new party within 60 days. Former FFP leader Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit encouraged the remaining members of MFP to persist under a different party name to ensure that their ideological push for democratic reforms remains. The critical issue is whether this new political party will maintain the agenda of reforming the lese majeste law.

A call for monarchy reform was a significant part of the youth movement that emerged in 2020-21. However, a push for this would lead to a firm response from the conservative establishment. The Constitutional Court has set a hard limit on such discussions: lese majeste reform has been removed from the proposed reforms on MFP’s website, as the Constitutional Court ordered the party to cease communication on amending the law and to follow legislative processes instead.

The alternative is to focus on other liberal democratic reforms. Thailand’s voting base will likely become more progressive as the population changes. As younger Thai generations become exposed to different ideas, the push for other reforms, such as gender equality and democratic participation, will remain. Hence, Thai political parties must adjust their policy platforms to look more progressive and respond to economic and social needs.

Pheu Thai (PT) appears to promote some of MFP’s reform proposals, including cutting back on military prerogatives and increasing wages, while staying clear of monarchy reform. For one, the Thai Parliament has passed the same-sex marriage bill. With a reform agenda, PT intends to benefit from MFP’s possible dissolution to regain electoral ground, particularly in its old stomping ground, Chiang Mai. Compared to MFP’s seven out of ten seats in Chiang Mai, PT won only two seats in the 2023 general election (GE).

That said, the MFP still maintains popular support. An opinion poll by King Prajadhipok’s Institute was conducted between 7 and 18 May 2024, with 1,620 respondents across Thailand. According to the poll, most Thais still favour the MFP to lead the government if a GE is to be held now. Based on responses for constituency and party-list elections, MFP could win 208 seats in the House. Pita also clearly led as people’s preferred prime ministerial (PM) candidate at 46.9 per cent, distantly followed by Prayut Chan-ocha (17.7 per cent), Paetongtarn Shinawatra (10.5 per cent) and PM Srettha Thavisin fourth at a measly 8.7 per cent.

…Thai political parties must adjust their policy platforms to look more progressive and respond to economic and social needs.

The poll occurred before Thaksin visited Chiang Mai and Nakhon Ratchasima. His recent lese majeste charge, seen as a conservative warning, might soften PT’s stance on MFP’s attempt for a broad amnesty bill covering lese majeste cases, especially as Thaksin, their guiding figure, faces such charges.

The Thai political landscape has long been dynamic, subject to frequent changes in party alliances. There is a separate saga which adds to the uncertainty – on 23 May 2024, the Constitutional Court accepted for deliberation a case filed by 40 senators concerning the allegedly unconstitutional appointment of Pichit Chuenban as a minister by Srettha, who could face possible removal from political office if found guilty. This could trigger coalition partners like Bhumjaithai (BJT) to realign away from PT to promote their own PM candidate, as BJT may now have uneasy relations with PT following the decision to re-criminalise cannabis.

Political expediency may lead MFP to capitalise on PT’s setbacks. Still, MFP faces challenges in an environment where royalist-military forces remain steadfast. If it stops focusing on reforming the lese majeste law, it remains to be seen if MFP can recapture the same level of electoral success as it enjoyed in 2023. Can MFP distinguish itself under a new banner if other parties pursue the same reformist agenda?

2024/169