Observers following the long saga surrounding negotiations on the Code of Conduct for the South China Sea should not be faulted if they feel a sense of déjà vu.
Author Archives: blackbox
Jokowi’s Manoeuvres in Defiance of Megawati Aimed at Consolidating Future Position
How does an outgoing president secure his political future without the usual party mechanism?
Malaysia’s 2023 State Elections: Projections and Scenarios
This Long Read uses the results of the 15th General Election (GE15) held in 2022 to project the possible outcomes in the upcoming state elections, through the use of various scenarios. A key question for the upcoming polls is the extent to which supporters of former political rivals Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Barisan Nasional (BN) will “transfer” their votes to each other in the upcoming state elections.
Pita (and the People) Versus the Powers that Be
Pita Limjaroenrat has failed to secure approval as Thailand’s next prime minister. This underscores the stark reality: leaders in Thailand are not elected by the will of the people, but permitted to rise to power with the support or at least the acquiescence of the conservative establishment.
Middle-Power Diplomacy: Decoding Vietnam’s Recent Diplomatic Endeavours
Vietnam’s continued engagement with regional middle powers such as India and South Korea enhances its autonomy in a time of intensified great power competition between China and the U.S.
NATO Expansion Does Not Justify Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine
Apologists for the Russian invasion of Ukraine lay the blame on NATO’s eastward expansion. But Russian discomfort over the expansion cannot justify its brutal invasion of Ukraine.
How the Nine-Dash Line Undermines China’s Economic Interests in Vietnam
China’s controversial nine-dash line claim to the South China Sea is creating problems for its businesses operating in Vietnam.
Indonesia Looks East: Widodo’s Engagement with Australia and Papua New Guinea
Despite earlier misgivings about his overly domestic focus, President Joko Widodo’s recent trip to Australia underscores how he has matured as a statesman and improved bilateral ties with Indonesia’s southern neighbour. Indonesia’s growing middle power influence was illustrated by Widodo’s subsequent visit to Papua New Guinea.
Quad-lite Makes Right?
Analyses about the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) tend to focus on its four-way formal structures. An examination of the bilateral and plurilateral interactions between Quad members, as well as those between Quad members and other regional states, suggests that their coalition building is much more nimble and flexible.
From Likes to Lies: Disinformation in the Philippines and Thailand
Recent elections in Thailand and the Philippines have seen the use of disinformation. Currently, policy options to tackle such a phenomenon remain limited.