The 2026 Johor Election: Advantage Barisan Nasional?

Social media and political commentators were atwitter in early June when Johor Menteri Besar (MB)  Onn Hafiz Ghazi dissolved the state assembly and paved the way for polls which will be held on 11 July. Onn’s and his coalition Barisan Nasional (BN) have some momentum in their stride, but the gambit is not without risk.

Beyond calling for the election almost a year ahead of schedule, Onn also raised temperatures when he declared that BN would contest all of the state’s 56 seats by itself. This is despite BN being a member of the Madani government at the federal level, alongside Pakatan Harapan (PH). This prompted charges of “arrogance” from Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and other leaders from his PH coalition, who had expected a more collaborative approach.  

Up until the assembly’s dissolution, BN had a commanding majority of 40 out of the 56 seats in the state assembly. How, then, are things looking for the coalition and are they correct to be so confident?

Undoubtedly, BN is enjoying strong tailwinds. The coalition’s flagship party, the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), has deep roots in Johor. It was founded in the state 80 years ago, and many of Malaysia’s first generation of independence leaders hail from the state. Onn has direct family connections to this group, who among them figure the founder of UMNO, Malaysia’s third prime minister, and former cabinet member Hishammuddin Hussein. Onn also cuts a youthful and energetic figure and his surprise visits to customs checkpoints, public transport and public amenities resonate with voters. Onn’s administration has also ramped up spending on social assistance and affordable housing.

Johor’s economy is on a tear. In 2025, it grew the fastest of any state at 6.4 per cent and pulled in RM110 billion in foreign direct investment. Southern Johor is a hive of activity, with numerous infrastructure projects in progress and data centres setting up shop. Looking ahead, the prospects for the state look bright, with initiatives such as the cross-border Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone (JSSEZ) underway. The Rapid Transit System (RTS) between Singapore and downtown Johor Bahru is set to begin operation early next year.  

And, perhaps most importantly, BN has real organisational prowess for contesting elections in Johor. Its extensive grassroots networks and motivated party members mobilise during elections and bring the voters to the urns, come rain or shine. Looking at the last three elections, BN has polled a remarkably consistent 600,000 votes — even in the wake of the 1MDB scandal in 2018 (see chart).

Undoubtedly, BN is enjoying strong tailwinds. The coalition’s flagship party, the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) has deep roots in Johor.

In contrast, PH’s electorate is more mercurial. Lacking the same pervasive party machinery, PH’s voters need to be motivated to turn out to vote. This is more likely to happen in parliamentary elections than in state polls, as seen in May 2018 and November 2022. To be fair, Covid-19 restrictions in March 2022 made voting difficult for Johoreans living in Singapore to cast their ballots. But, it also speaks to the point that a substantial portion of PH’s voter base is based outside of Johor and needs to be mobilised to return. Should BN be able to replicate its 600,000 voters as it has in the last three elections and PH’s vote fall to somewhere near its state 2022 level, the former will do handsomely.

Figure 1. BN: Consistent Showings

Last, BN has benefited from the implosion of Perikatan Nasional (PN). Wind had been in the sails of this coalition, helmed by Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) and Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu). However, it is very unlikely that PN will replicate its performances for the 2022 state and parliamentary elections. PAS has historically struggled in the state, performing well only when coupled with other parties. Bersatu, centred on former prime minister and Johor Menteri Besar Muhyiddin Yassin, made for an ideal candidate to help PN expand in the state. Without this combination, and particularly if PAS and Bersatu do not cooperate effectively on the ground, PN’s support base will be split. Again, BN’s consistent turnout is likely to carry the day in Malay-majority seats.

Despite all this, the state election is not entirely without risk for BN. First, in its framing and timing, Onn has set the bar extremely high. Given BN’s confidence and its bringing the election forward by almost one year, it needs to at least equal its current stable of 40 seats. Anything less than this figure would be a strategic failure. Also, the perception that BN has focused on politicking rather than policymaking may sour voters for parliamentary polls.

In addition, it is hard to make the case that all of Johor’s growth and development is due to BN alone. BN is a part of the Unity Government at the federal level, and the JS-SEZ, RTS and other infrastructure projects are being carried out with federal funds and in conjunction with federal ministries. And, it is also worth mentioning that these initiatives are concentrated in the southern part of the state, with rather less high-profile investment in the north. This might entail some potential disgruntlement.

While BN has its party apparatus, PH, in particular PH ministers Saifuddin Nasution Ismail and Anthony Loke, has the entire machinery of government at its disposal. Well aware that a low turnout favours BN, Anwar and other PH ministers have been doing their utmost to entice voters to return home and cast their ballots. This includes additional trains from KL to Johor on the newly-upgraded electric train system, as well as expedited customs and immigration lanes to facilitate voters crossing from Singapore.

Finally, while a solid BN victory in Johor can be woven into a narrative of momentum and support, this does not guarantee a similar result come the next general election. BN fell into this trap in 2022 when, on the back of its commanding majority in the state assembly, it anticipated a similar performance in GE2022. Yet, its commanding 40 out of 56 state seats fell to a more modest nine out of 26 parliamentary seats. The field is also more crowded now than it used to be. Smaller parties such as Malaysia’s United Democratic Alliance (MUDA) and Bersama are unlikely to net a significant haul of seats, but they may fragment the vote in unexpected ways.   

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